Why the Winning Is Good

[Shouright]

I believe teams do well when they expect to do well.

And IMO teams usually create their expectations for a season based on two things: 1) how well they did the previous season, and 2) how much they improved in the offseason.

I don't think anyone will argue that we will very likely improve the team in the offseason. Our expectations for success next year will get a boost from our offseason acquisitions as well as from dropping some players from the roster. In other words, we know what we do in the offseason will improve the team.

So that leaves how well we do this season as the "unknown" factor in how well we'll expect to do next season.

If we finish this season 8-8 or 9-7 (realistic numbers at this point), we'll expect nothing but to go up from there next season, which would put our record in the range to make the playoffs.

Had we continued losing when we were 3-7 and finished 5-11 or 6-10, going up from there next season wouldn't have necessarily put us in the range to make the playoffs with a slightly improved record (I say "slightly" because teams usually improve slightly from year to year, and I think they expect to improve slightly).

At 8-8 or 9-7, we have our sights set on nothing worse than 10-6 next year, which is playoff range.

At 5-11 or 6-10, we may have had our sights set on 7-9 or 8-8, which isn't.

 

[adamprez2003]

I believe teams do well when they expect to do well.

And IMO teams usually create their expectations for a season based on two things: 1) how well they did the previous season, and 2) how much they improved in the offseason.

I don't think anyone will argue that we will very likely improve the team in the offseason. Our expectations for success next year will get a boost from our offseason acquisitions as well as from dropping some players from the roster. In other words, we know what we do in the offseason will improve the team.

So that leaves how well we do this season as the "unknown" factor in how well we'll expect to do next season.

If we finish this season 8-8 or 9-7 (realistic numbers at this point), we'll expect nothing but to go up from there next season, which would put our record in the range to make the playoffs.

Had we continued losing when we were 3-7 and finished 5-11 or 6-10, going up from there next season wouldn't have necessarily put us in the range to make the playoffs with a slightly improved record (I say "slightly" because teams usually improve slightly from year to year, and I think they expect to improve slightly).

At 8-8 or 9-7, we have our sights set on nothing worse than 10-6 next year, which is playoff range.

At 5-11 or 6-10, we may have had our sights set on 7-9 or 8-8, which isn't.

But its the same roster whether we're 5-11 or 9-7. We knew how to win in 2003. Did we suddenly forget in 2004 never to be remembered again? It helps put a positive frame of mind for the players but the catch is we'll probably have a worse draft, a tougher time finding people off the waiver wire and a tougher schedule. It certainly puts people in the right frame of mind and that can't be dismissed but it makes it harder to continue rebuilding as quickly as we started off doing this year. Free Agency is going to be huge for us this year to offset the draft

 

[Shouright]

But its the same roster whether we're 5-11 or 9-7. We knew how to win in 2003. Did we suddenly forget in 2004 never to be remembered again? It helps put a positive frame of mind for the players but the catch is we'll probably have a worse draft, a tougher time finding people off the waiver wire and a tougher schedule. It certainly puts people in the right frame of mind and that can't be dismissed but it makes it harder to continue rebuilding as quickly as we started off doing this year. Free Agency is going to be huge for us this year to offset the draft

Sure it's the same roster, but what is that roster expecting from itself coming off a 5-11 year versus a 9-7 year?

And sure, we did "forget" how to win in 2004, and it looks like it took us just over half the season to "remember" this year. There won't be any "remembering" required next year because of that. At 5-11 there may have been some, however.

 

[adamprez2003]

Sure it's the same roster, but what is that roster expecting from itself coming off a 5-11 year versus a 9-7 year?

And sure, we did "forget" how to win in 2004, and it looks like it took us just over half the season to "remember" this year. There won't be any "remembering" required next year because of that. At 5-11 there may have been some, however.

True. Hopefully we have another great draft and then we'll have the best of both worlds:evil:

 

[islandah]

We knew how to win in 2003.

Actually, I think we didn't. We had a better record, but we tended to lose the big game, or give up the big drive at the end of the game. We expected to lose the big ones and therefore did. This season has been huge for the psyche of this team. We now finish games and expect to find a way to win. It is a fundamental change for this team that will be huge down the road when we actually get more talent at key positions (QB).

 

[Alex44]

Sure it's the same roster, but what is that roster expecting from itself coming off a 5-11 year versus a 9-7 year?

And sure, we did "forget" how to win in 2004, and it looks like it took us just over half the season to "remember" this year. There won't be any "remembering" required next year because of that. At 5-11 there may have been some, however.

Players on waivers usually are guys that wont make a HUGE impact

you can still find impact players our spot in the draft

and free agents will want to play for a winning team before they play for a crappy team

 

[Shouright]

Actually, I think we didn't. We had a better record, but we tended to lose the big game, or give up the big drive at the end of the game. We expected to lose the big ones and therefore did. This season has been huge for the psyche of this team. We now finish games and expect to find a way to win. It is a fundamental change for this team that will be huge down the road when we actually get more talent at key positions (QB).

Right, and even Jason Cole, who has called the team "mentally weak" for the past few years, has called these last few wins "tough-minded" in nature. I think he's seeing what you are, and he's been following the team closely for nearly 15 years.

 

[adamprez2003]

Players on waivers usually are guys that wont make a HUGE impact

you can still find impact players our spot in the draft

and free agents will want to play for a winning team before they play for a crappy team

Maybe I'm wrong. Didn't we get Donnie Jones off the waiver wire? He's probably our special teams MVP.

 

[Alex44]

Maybe I'm wrong. Didn't we get Donnie Jones off the waiver wire? He's probably our special teams MVP.

But he is a punter, and I dont think anyone was gonna pick him up anyway, he wasnt good in seattle really

you are never going to find an offensive or defensive superstar off waivers

 

[adamprez2003]

Right, and even Jason Cole, who has called the team "mentally weak" for the past few years, has called these last few wins "tough-minded" in nature. I think he's seeing what you are, and he's been following the team closely for nearly 15 years.

Well I thought that the team played tough the entire year with only a couple of letdown games. Listen the mental part of winning and learning how to close out wins is important but so is filling out a roster with quality players. There's always tradeoffs in life and such is the nature of the draft. As i said, if we have another good draft then we get the best of both worlds

 

[Boik14]

Here's another reason the winning is good: It shows our guys are sick of losing.

It will make us more attractive to FA's who will now see us as a team on the rise.

Lastly it immediately sheds any bust label saban had and shuts up any doubters. We were supposed to be a long term project and in contention for a top 3 pick. Instead we're still alive in the playoff chase even if our hopes are still slight.

 

[Bad Lieutenant]

let's relax a bit. The Bills last year ended on a tear to go 9-7, and everyone was hyping them for this year, and they totally bombed. I know they had a new QB, but who is to say we won't?

 

[jason8er]

The best part about winning out this season, besides the dignity part, is that it will show the free agents around the league that Miami just might be the place to be in '06-'07.

 

[Shouright]

Bump.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I've studied the statistical and situational trends for roughly 20 years and there is virtually no benefit to losing. Road teams do better against the spread coming off a loss than a win, but that's about it. Otherwise, all the straight up and performance analysis screams that winning produces positive residue and losing the opposite.

Over our final two games, IMO it's much more vital to defeat New England than the Titans. Obviously winning both is preferable. But even if the Pats rest everyone of consequence, we need to go up there and hang a W to prevent a season sweep. You don't want New England to have that sweep mindset and confidence going into our first meeting next year. Especially if that game is at New England. That would give the Pats the fury of anti-revenge home scenario in their favor, similar to what the Jets and Buffalo had over us this year. The halftime scores of those games were 10-0 and 17-0. Hardly a coincidence.

Just look at the first Washington/Dallas game this year on Monday night. The result of that game completely reversed the dynamic of that series, potentially for many games/years to come. I literally salivated for 3 months to bet Washington in the first half of the rematch last Sunday.

Remember, Dallas led the Skins 13-0 with just a few minutes remaining in their September game at Dallas. The score should have been worse than that. Then two bombs to Santana Moss shocked the Cowboys for a 14-13 Washington victory. They were hugging on the sidelines like a significant playoff victory. Those are by far the best type of home anti-revenge situations, when a team literally steals a win on the road after seemingly an insurmountable deficit. At the outset of the next game between the two teams at the site of the surprise victor, that team is inevitably energized and intense beyond description, ready to smack the opponent in the mouth again to prove it was not a fluke. Last Sunday's 35-0 Washington halftime lead was merely the normal course of events plus a bit extra. Now the Skins own a sweep this year and if the teams meet for the first time in Washington next season the momentum and confidence from this year should carry over to an early Skins lead in that game.

Just too damn bad I didn't figure out that anti revenge angle earlier, although I've known about it since '88. Now many old games make perfect sense. Like the Dolphins hosting the Steelers on Monday night in '73. Miami took a 30-3 halftime lead in that game and everyone in the stands was stunned at the first half course of events. But now that I think about it, the Dolphins had defeated the Steelers in Miami in '71 after rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit when Griese was in the hospital and Jim Del Gaizo played the first half before Griese relieved him. A year later in the famous AFC championship game at Pittsburgh, Griese was again summoned at halftime and rallied Miami to the 21-17 victory and Super Bowl berth. So obviously when the teams played at Miami in '73 with Griese finally healthy from the outset of the game the Dolphins would have phenomenal energy and intensity via the fury of anti revenge at home. Hey Curtain, we stole the Super Bowl from you at your joint, so take some more and now. Then the Steelers rallied furiously in the second half to make the final close at 30-26. Again, not completely unusual. The home teams often use up so much energy in that emotional first half that they slowly give way in the second half.