Will Miami Be A Pass Happy Team in 2014? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Will Miami Be A Pass Happy Team in 2014?

So Be

So Be

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Last year, the Dolphins threw 594 times, and ran 349, not a good balance but, no run game. The year before, it was 503 passes and 45 runs, with no receivers.

What will this year bring with still many questions the OL? Have to believe that Lazor would like balance but, hard to see how he is gong to get it.
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Last year, the Dolphins threw 594 times, and ran 349, not a good balance but, no run game. The year before, it was 503 passes and 45 runs, with no receivers.

What will this year bring with still many questions the OL? Have to believe that Lazor would like balance but, hard to see how he is gong to get it.
Click to expand...

Damn, Ricky had about as many carries against Buffalo in 2003 than we had all season two years ago? :d-day:
 
I would expect to be, until we can prove to run it more effectively. Would like to see numbers for the rest of the league in those regards.
 
Not sure if this is the case but those numbers could be the result of playing from behind and trying to catch up, as opposed to playing with the lead and trying to run out the clock....
 
You have to believe the Dolphins will be a pass happy team as long as Philbin is coach. That's his stated bias, backed by anecdotes from Mike Sherman.

It makes sense in this era. The top passing teams have a huge advantage after the recent changes in rules and emphasis. I continue to believe that Goodell is annoyed at the 2013 Seahawks and has already taken steps to prevent a rerun, even if it's behind the scenes.

Here's a related article from an analysis expert. There's a betting slant, since he's now involved with some syndicates in Las Vegas. I began hearing about this guy Sharp a few years ago. Most of his work is good but he does overlook important variances here and there. In this case he spotlights the premier teams and emphasizes that running is not as important as prior to 2010. But he conveniently ignores all the lesser teams that now throw the ball too frequently, at their own disadvantage. I actually don't mind when that type of fixation is flawed. Schatz and Football Outsiders have made the same predictable mistake in recent years. It allows some of my obscure angles to thrive when the teams with mediocre quarterbacks throw the ball too often.


Note the segments regarding offensive line (pass protection) efficiency. That's our primary hope, along with Tannehill naturally bouncing upwards. I still think he underachieved in 2013.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/...r-design-sports-betting-warren-sharp-football
 
I believe that Philbin believes its not possible for a defense to be balanced, there will always be extra yards to be had passing or running depending on how the defense is set up. If they stack the box the extra yards on that play will come through the air. If they play two deep safeties the extra yards may come running the ball. Philbin always wants to take those extra yards even if that means we end up passing 100% of the time. And until Tannehill proves he can take advantage of soft passing defenses they'll continue to dare us to pass and we'll continue to oblige them.

The bottom line though is if you don't have a good-great QB it doesn't matter what style of offense you run or what your philosophies are, you will fail.
 
Lazor will try to run it more. The actually had a very balanced offense in Philly; however, I don't see McCoy on our roster. Lazor may try, but I think he will have to revert to the pass more just because we don't have a real RB.
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Last year, the Dolphins threw 594 times, and ran 349, not a good balance but, no run game. The year before, it was 503 passes and 45 runs, with no receivers.

What will this year bring with still many questions the OL? Have to believe that Lazor would like balance but, hard to see how he is gong to get it.
Click to expand...

Even though I have no idea how Miami is going to consistently run the ball (Moreno is in inconsistent, now he is also coming back from surgery...Miller needs toughness, no more going down at 1st contact...Thomas needs to be more consistent, be the powerback we hoped him to be), I have a feeling Lazor will not abandon the run as easily as Sherman did.

Miami may still run more then pass, even if it's not as effective at first.
 
One major difference about Lazor is that he manufactures opportunities for the RB's and the running game.

He does this by getting the defense in bad spots and getting the ball to the RB's in spots that give them a chance to succeed.

He isn't going to turn us into a dominant run team by crushing up the middle on 3rd and 3. This isn't Csonka and a powerful OL.

Lazor will throw to his backs in th flat, dump it off to them in the secondary in holes in the zone, and create screen passes to get his fast backs into space against the secondary. He likes to spread the defense out, stretch them vertically, and then attack the gaps with odd formations, motion and pick plays for both pass and run.

He also runs out of the shotgun to take advantage of coverage heavy defenses.

One of the major benefits of the up tempo offense Lazor and Philly ran last year was that they got defenses with nickel and dime backs into the game and then went up tempo and prevented substitutions. If they can make the first down, that let's them string together a bunch of run plays against that coverage defense. So, defenses are hesitant to go with a dime defender allowing TE's and slot receivers to get great win matchups in the passing game.

Our yardage numbers will increase this year. Our percentage of running plays will increase this year. So, from one very reasonable perspective you can say our running game will improve. But, we are likely to be just as ineffective on short yardage up the middle.

It bears mentioning that Philadelphia has an outstanding OL that is tremendously adept at both pass pro an run blocking. Their deep stable of TE's can also block for both as well as catch passes and present size mismatches in the red zone. We lack all of that.

We have some OL that are good pass pro and mediocre run blocker's (Albert and James) and some good run blocker's who are subpar at pass pro (Smith) and some that are too young and/or raw to be dependable (James, Turner, Thomas, Smith). We lack any top end complete TE, with Clay being a raw receiver and ad blocker of all types, and Lynch being an inconsistent rookie.

We will take our lumps.
 
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Dr. Phin said:
Lazor will try to run it more. The actually had a very balanced offense in Philly; however, I don't see McCoy on our roster. Lazor may try, but I think he will have to revert to the pass more just because we don't have a real RB.
Click to expand...

Your post answered my question. The run game should (oh I sure hope I'm right on this one!) flourish if the short passing game is solid...maybe.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
You have to believe the Dolphins will be a pass happy team as long as Philbin is coach. That's his stated bias, backed by anecdotes from Mike Sherman.

It makes sense in this era. The top passing teams have a huge advantage after the recent changes in rules and emphasis. I continue to believe that Goodell is annoyed at the 2013 Seahawks and has already taken steps to prevent a rerun, even if it's behind the scenes.

Here's a related article from an analysis expert. There's a betting slant, since he's now involved with some syndicates in Las Vegas. I began hearing about this guy Sharp a few years ago. Most of his work is good but he does overlook important variances here and there. In this case he spotlights the premier teams and emphasizes that running is not as important as prior to 2010. But he conveniently ignores all the lesser teams that now throw the ball too frequently, at their own disadvantage. I actually don't mind when that type of fixation is flawed. Schatz and Football Outsiders have made the same predictable mistake in recent years. It allows some of my obscure angles to thrive when the teams with mediocre quarterbacks throw the ball too often.


Note the segments regarding offensive line (pass protection) efficiency. That's our primary hope, along with Tannehill naturally bouncing upwards. I still think he underachieved in 2013.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/...r-design-sports-betting-warren-sharp-football
Click to expand...

I enjoyed the article.

But when looking at the 10 teams that went 13-3 or better since 2010, you have the Broncos and Seahawks in 2013, the Broncos and Falcons in 2012, the Patriots, Packers, Saints, 49ers in 2011, and the Patriots and Falcons in 2010. I'll bold the teams that had a pass/run ratio of 55/45 or higher:

2013

Broncos
Seahawks

2012

Broncos
Falcons

2012

Patriots
Packers
Saints
49ers

2010

Patriots
Falcons

So the QB's for the 60% are Manning, Manning, Ryan, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. Should probably also be noted that none of these teams won SB's. Ryan is obviously the runt of the group, but he had a healthy Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez.

My take on the pass-happy approach. It's the best way to rack up regular season wins against mediocre competition - ASSUMING you have Manning, Brady, Rodgers, or Brees. Give any of these guys enough bullets (pass attempts) against mediocre competition, and they'll win a high percentage. If your team is falling apart via FA or failing in the draft, it's a good deodorant. We remember the Colts when Manning went down, and we saw Green Bay last season without Rodgers.

But for winning tough games against great competition, the quick passing game (where these QB's all thrive) is much less reliable, and if you don't have a strong running game, you're going to have a difficult time sustaining drives. Of course, if you're right and the league forces the refs to call the game softer in the playoffs, we'd see the playoffs look a lot like the regular season - where finding a top-5 QB is like finding a golden ticket.
 
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