BandarBush
Scout Team
I've been looking at the numbers and rules for tie-breakers and our shot at the wild card doesn't look good. For the division, the tie-breaking rules are (1) HTH, (2) Div record, (3) common opponents. For the wild card the tie-breaking rules (even against teams within your own division) are (1) HTH, (2) Conf. Rec. (3) common opponents.
Assuming we do NOT win the division, we would be amongst the following teams all vying for 2 wild card spots:
Baltimore (8-4), (7-3) (w/ a head-to-head win against us)
Indy (8-4), (7-2)
Dolphins (7-5), (5-4)
NE (7-5), (5-5)
Now, assuming we win out (which MUST happen for us to have a realist shot),and assuming the Ravens, Colts and Miami tie at 11-5 (Ravens & Colts lose only 1 of their remaining games), both teams would beat us (and the Patriots, incidentally) for the final 2 playoff berths. Ravens owns the HTH tie breaker and the Colts own the better conference record (which would be 9-3 at worst, assuming their 1 loss comes against a conference opponent). Again, assuming we win out, we have a tie-breaker over the Patriots for a Wild card spot by virtue of our better conference record, but it wouldn't matter since the Ravens and Colts would take the final two spots. The Patriots are sort of irrelevant at this point for wild card purposes (though they could still win the division).
In order for us to get a wild-card spot, we need to (1) win out and (2) have either the Colts or Ravens loose 2 of their remaining games (so that we would have a better overall record of 11-5 to their 10-6).
But get this: if we win all of our remaining games (including week 17 at the Jets), we would win the division. Assuming the Jets win all of their remaining games except week 17 against us, we would have identical records: 11-5 (overall), 4-2 (div). BUT we would have the common opponent tie-breaker because we beat the Broncos and Chargers while the Jets lost to both the Broncos and Chargers (all of our other common opponents will have resulted in the same results, since we are assuming the Dolphins beat the Chiefs in week 16 in this scenario).
It would seem its actually more likely that we would win the division (and thus wind up the #3 seed hosting a playoff game) than win a wild card berth. Strange, huh?
Assuming we do NOT win the division, we would be amongst the following teams all vying for 2 wild card spots:
Baltimore (8-4), (7-3) (w/ a head-to-head win against us)
Indy (8-4), (7-2)
Dolphins (7-5), (5-4)
NE (7-5), (5-5)
Now, assuming we win out (which MUST happen for us to have a realist shot),and assuming the Ravens, Colts and Miami tie at 11-5 (Ravens & Colts lose only 1 of their remaining games), both teams would beat us (and the Patriots, incidentally) for the final 2 playoff berths. Ravens owns the HTH tie breaker and the Colts own the better conference record (which would be 9-3 at worst, assuming their 1 loss comes against a conference opponent). Again, assuming we win out, we have a tie-breaker over the Patriots for a Wild card spot by virtue of our better conference record, but it wouldn't matter since the Ravens and Colts would take the final two spots. The Patriots are sort of irrelevant at this point for wild card purposes (though they could still win the division).
In order for us to get a wild-card spot, we need to (1) win out and (2) have either the Colts or Ravens loose 2 of their remaining games (so that we would have a better overall record of 11-5 to their 10-6).
But get this: if we win all of our remaining games (including week 17 at the Jets), we would win the division. Assuming the Jets win all of their remaining games except week 17 against us, we would have identical records: 11-5 (overall), 4-2 (div). BUT we would have the common opponent tie-breaker because we beat the Broncos and Chargers while the Jets lost to both the Broncos and Chargers (all of our other common opponents will have resulted in the same results, since we are assuming the Dolphins beat the Chiefs in week 16 in this scenario).
It would seem its actually more likely that we would win the division (and thus wind up the #3 seed hosting a playoff game) than win a wild card berth. Strange, huh?
