I wouldn’t trade to Carolina for what’s being suggested. Giving up a prime top 3 spot with two generational talents knocking around and QB desperate teams around as well, If I’m dropping from 3-8 and getting a miserly second rounder and third rounder out of it when they pick up a generational talent and I get a WR with those 2 extra picks I’m not going to be smiling. They need to give up two 1sts for me and a second in the coming draft. They want penei they gotta pay Laremy prices plus a little
I agree. I think the price for dropping from 3 to 8 would have to be at least a first next year and a 2nd this year and possibly more. I don't think they will be targeting Penei though. I think they'll be targeting QB. My guess is that by the time the draft rolls around Lawrence, Fields and Wilson will all be considered/coveted in the top 3 and that Miami will have the opportunity to trade down. Miami will not consider a QB there (despite the hysteria in the forum), but they will consider Penei, Smith, Parsons or Chase. If they like them all equally (or at least close) then obviously dropping down anywhere in the top 7 would be a no-brainer (and maybe even 8-10 if they believe that another player may sneak in there like Surtain or Rouseau). If they have a strong preference for one or two of them (I have a fairly strong preference for Penei and Smith) then they may not be as keen to trade down or at least not trade down very far.
I think how much they like Smith and where they think he'll go will be a big factor. It's not difficult to imagine Smith being one of, if not the, top priority. His talent, productivity and fit in terms of skill set and personality (not to mention his familiarity and apparent trust with our QB) seem ideal. Kiper has him as the 4th best player but others have him as low as 12th. If you see him as top 4 and likely to go high, you probably just take him at #3. If you think other teams won't be as high on him or are likely to fill other needs, then you may be willing to drop down a bit.
It's kind of the same with Penei. He seems like an ideal OL prospect and most have him going in the top 5. If he's your guy, you probably just take him at #3.
Parsons is a guy whom I expect they see as a perfect fit in terms of talent and skill set. There may be some maturity or team player personality questions with him based on issues in HS and college though so his fit may not be as perfect as the other two. I'm also not sure they would see LB as a greater need than WR (but maybe as high as T?).
Chase was the best WR in the country last season (Smith this season). He doesn't have the weight concern that some may have with Smith, but his skill set may not be as perfect for us. And he doesn't have that built-in relationship with Tua. Depending on individual preferences I can understand someone seeing him as a the best WR in the draft. I just think Chase isn't as good as Smith at getting separation in the short and intermediate routes which I expect will continue to be a big part of our offense regardless or whom we bring in as the OC.
I can't say I'd be disappointed with any of those four (although I'd be disappointed on missing out on the other 3 regardless). I think they'll all be great players. The biggest risk IMO is probably Parsons b/c lack of maturity can derail any career regardless of talent. But I don't expect we'll ever have enough information to say he is or isn't mature enough prior to the draft. If he were the pick I would trust that the staff did their due diligence and made a reasonable decision.
The other factor for many is what the drop-off is to next player (presumably at #18 or so depending on if we trade up for someone they covet). IMO there is no comparable guy to Penei. The drop-off is huge. So if he's your guy and you see T as a big need then you just take him. I think Collins at LB is much closer to Parsons in our system. I don't see Collins as explosive as Parsons, but in a 'everybody just do your job' defense like ours the production/impact might be close. WR is tougher. I have Smith and Chase as the best with Waddle a hair below and then everybody else a step below that. IMO Smith and Chase are the guys who would be clear #1s for us. Waddle, as much as a I like him, may end up as more of a slot guy or your S/E deep guy. Someone in the next tier may obviously develop into a great WR, but whom that will be is kind of a crap shoot.
For me, the best case scenario is trading down a bit and still getting Smith.
#2 is just taking Penei or Smith at #3
#3 would be trading down a bit or just taking Chase
#4 would be trading down a bit or just taking Parsons
#5 would be trading down more and taking Waddle