A 1st this year is worth the same as a first next year. The only reason people pay a premium is to protect the team trading the present pick from having a worse off pick. If you trade a 2 for 1 the worst case scenario is you move down 1 spot. Today's NFL is too "win now" for a strategy like this to work. If your entrenched in your job (Patriots situation), you can afford to wait until the next year to get what should be a better player. Like mentioned before, TVM is not a factor with draft picks. Just as an example, if we traded our 2010 2nd, which was a relatively high pick that turned into Misi, for a 1st in 2011, we could have got Jonathon Baldwin, Mark Ingrahm, Wilkerson, etc. The talent at even the bottom of the first is generally a step up from even the top of the 2nd. I would do this every time theres a chance. The key to their being a chance is having a player on the board with elite talent at a position you don't need (ex: Patriots when QB's are on the board). We don't have elite talent anywhere so we won't be in this position, in my opinion.