Just because you pick a QB in the 1st rd doesnt mean he is good. Its feast or famine with the QB and if you're team is lucky enough to have a shot at a QB then take it. I wouldnt call Ryan a franchise QB.....I would love to see the list of QB that got picked in the first rd that didnt work out.
Here is a list of all QB's taken in the 1st or 2nd round going back to 2000 (through 2007, too difficult to determine how good 2008 and beyond QBs will be, i.e. Ryan, Flacco, etc). I have them labeled as bust, serviceable, or star next to each name and have bolded my opinions on the ones that could be argued.
1st Rounders
Pennington - 2000 1st Round - Serviceable
Vick - 2001 1st Round - Star
Carr - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Harrington - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Ramsey - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Carson - 2003 1st Round -
Serivceable or Star ?
Byron Leftwich - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Kyle Boller - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Rex Grossman - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Eli - 2004 1st Round - Star
Rivers - 2004 1st Round - Star
Roethlisberger - 2004 1st Round - Star
JP Losman - 2004 1st Round - Bust
Alex Smith - 2005 1st Round -
Bust or Serviceable ? probably bust here
Aaron Rodgers - 2005 1st Round - Star
Jason Campbell - 2005 1st Round - Serviceable
Vince Young - 2006 1st Round -
Star or Serviceable ? looks like he will be pretty darn good
Leinart - 2006 1st Round - Bust
Cutler - 2006 1st Round - Serviceable
Jemarcus - 2007 1st Round - Bust
Brady Quinn - 2007 1st Round - Bust
6 of 18 QB's (33%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Stars (of these 6, 5 were drafted in the first 15 picks)
9 of 18 QB's (50%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Busts (
of these 9, 5 were drafted in the first 10 picks)
2nd Rounders
Drew Brees - 2001 2nd Round - Star
Quincy Carter - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Tuiassassopo - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Kellen Clemens - 2006 2nd Round - Bust
Tavaris Jackson - 2006 2nd Round - Serviceable
Drew Stanton - 2007 2nd Round - Bust
John Beck - 2007 2nd Round - Bust
1 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as stars from the 2nd Round
5 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as busts from the 2nd Round (although busting in the 2nd is a lot less detrimental then busting in the 1st)
I think the only point WV has made that was proven by the data is that the 2nd round has not produced many good QB's at least over the past 10 yrs or so.
Where WV's argument has holes is that taking a 1st round QB is the end all be all. Seeing as 5 of the 9 Busts in my analysis came in the 1st 10 picks and that only 33% of the 1st Round QBs have turned into stars, this isn't the only way to build your team. If you hit it big and get one of the stars, that's great. You've built a good foundation for your franchise, but the data says that you are more likely to miss then hit.