The team has so many needs that we really could go in several different directions here but we are not desperate at any of them. Could use an Edge player with two injured ones and an older one year rental. Could use a corner per the OP's analysis with 2 older vets and a 2nd year player we don't know what we have with yet. Could use a WR as Tyreek is getting older, Waddle heading into 5th year option year and our inability to generate much offense when one or both of them were missing time and or dinged up last year. Could use a tackle because Armstead will miss games and will likely retire after the season. Could use a guard since we lost Hunt and are depending on an often injured player at LG, with a bunch of lesser players filling backup roles. Could use a young stud DT with the loss of Wilkins however with the number of signings we have had there that doesn't look likely early in this draft.
So what to do? Grier has done a good job in that we aren't desperate at any of these positions, like need a day 1 starter to depend on now. We can go in a lot of different directions come draft day so other GM's won't know for sure what player(s) we covet. Much will come down to Grier's own board and what players he has a first round grade on, it may just be as simple as taking the highest rated 1st round graded prospect at any one of these "positions of need".
I'm still of the opinion that the best macro strategy for this team is to load up offensively. The defense will be a work in progress with a bunch of new players, several key injured players and a new DC. Although we could use a corner, use another Edge, I would postpone those needs and patch where necessary later in free agency while looking to the '25 draft when we have 10-11 picks, 8 of those in the first 5 rounds.
I doubt Grier would target a non-premium position so that removes center/guard from my consideration at #21. So that leaves Tackle and WR. This draft is supposedly loaded at both positions. For that reason a trade down if at all possible given the value would likely be my first choice and a strong consideration for Grier. Assuming we stay at #21, again tackle or WR for me, take your highest graded prospect at one of those positions with the thought of getting the other in round 2. If the draft is really that deep at both positions we could land a quality player at both positions.
IMO this team is going to win games on offense this year, will go as far as the offense takes it. Really can't afford to peter out like last year. Hit tackle and WR early and assuming we pick well the offense is strong at QB, 2 fast RB's and a quality FB, 2 fast WR's and a stud rookie WR to develop w/ decent depth in this system from WR 4-6, Smith/Smythe at TE and hopefully an at least average OL strong across the starting 5 but also with depth.
I didn't answer the OP's question about the exact surprise pick because I don't break down the college prospects so I have to go by what I hear on who's really good, 1st round grade, etc. I like to focus more on the position(s) being targeted, the macro build strategy. If looking for a surprise, QB would surprise, a Penix or Nix type. We still haven't signed Tua long-term and our backups aren't good so no matter what one thinks of Tua, we're just a serious injury away from a lost season. Not many teams double dip so to speak at QB when they think they have a good one but Green Bay has, twice, and it's seemingly worked for them. KC took Mahommes when they already had Alex Smith. Rodgers was the 24th pick in the draft when he came out, not saying any of the guys this year are that caliber but do you pass on a QB say that the FO loves just because you already have a good QB and think you need a OT/WR to better fill a hole? Yes most teams would pass on the QB but that doesn't make it right down the road. I'm sure a lot of teams have been kicking themselves for passing on Rodgers for so long those years ago for need picks that never amounted to much, or not for long compared to a great QB. In any event I'm not advocating for this just saying that would be my surprise pick. With edge, corner, tackle/guard and WR needs I don't really consider any of them a surprise.
