Which new player will have the biggest impact on the team this coming season? | Page 10 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Which new player will have the biggest impact on the team this coming season?

fansinceGWilson said:
Well, we disagree here.
TT did not ignore an open receiver. Mcd did. He has staff in the booth to tell him the D is focused on TH/waddle. And, yes, one of #3 or #4 receivers were open often. Not lonely, but NFL open.
Yes, TH did have 2-3 defenders near him at the time of reception though not always. Not man coverage, but when TT's eyes went his way, he drew a crowd. Yes, at times, he had 4 defenders around him.
Yes, TT threw jump balls when TH or Waddle were triple covered.
Yes, LBs dropped deeper than usual because they knew Mcd didn't use the 5 yds past the LOS. True, they still played zone. Don't deny that. But a deeper zone.
All of these are on tape. I'm not arguing these were common (except the LB). But they happened. Part on Mcd. Part on TT. Part on a MASH unit OL.
I agree no DC intentionally ignores a receiver, but they do spend resources on the 1-2 most targeted and dangerous and have defenders watch them more closely. They do, at times, put a LB on the #4WR (Brady was the master at taking advantage of that), or the #4CB on a #3WR. When the D is playing zone, it's up to the OC to to put the quick/fast receiver in a position to take advantage of the weakest zone defender. Either Mcd didn't or the D's game plan was to focus on TH/waddle. DCs did drop LBs into timing windows which is not quite 'zone,' but they did have an area to defend.
My sole point is Mcd/TT should NOT have had TH/Waddle 1 and 2 in progression 95% of the time (I made that # up). 3rd and 4 is a perfect time to target a TE close to the LOS. There wasn't even a TE route for that. Have a RB leak past the LOS. Nope. It was a pass behind the LOS. We know how effective that was.
Yes, target TH/waddle. Yes, give them a lot of targets, but if the D is not defending the 5yds past LOS or have a weak zone defender against Berrios, take advantage of it. again, we've all seen games where the #3 WR dominated a game. That's not because he was always #3 in progreesion.
If I'm way off, I'm certain many here will call me out. I don't think I am.
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Needless to say, McD cannot possibly ignore an open receiver because there is no way to know if he is open before the play and once the play starts MCD has about as much control over where the ball goes as you are I do.

Defenses don't show that they are focused on Hill and Waddle any more than on any other WRs. They plays zone 85+% of the time. Zone looks don't show any particular focus on any particular receiver. If they are showing man, that is a good thing as most can't handle those guys (which is why defenses do it so infrequently) and that is reasons to throw to Hill/Waddle, not a reason not to.

In zone coverage, every WR will sometimes have multiple defenders around them. That's how it is supposed to work. It's not unique to Hill or Waddle and it is not true that they were typically more covered than most. On the contrary, both had a relatively low percentage of contested targets. Only 20 of Hill's 167 targets were contested (12%) and only 13 of Waddle's 104 targets (12.5%) were contested. Here's how that compares to the league's other top targets:

Hill -- 20/167 (12%)
Waddle -- 13/104 (12.5%)

Lamb -- 26/179 (14.5%)
St. Brown -- 26/158 (16.4%)
Nacua -- 26/153 (17%)
Diggs -- 29/159 (18.2%)
Pittman -- 28/150 (18.7%)
Adams -- 34/171 (19.9%)
AJBrown -- 31/152 (20.4%)
Wilson -- 37/163 (22.7%)


Both Hill and Waddle had contested targets rates about 50% (or more) less than the other top WRs.

No, Tua did not throw many jump balls when they were triple covered. I don't believe it happened even once when they were double covered. There were a few bad passes that gave defenders the opportunity to get there but those guys were open when the passes were thrown.

All defenses sometimes have LBs covering TEs. It is the usual result in most base personnel zone defenses because the LBs usually cover short zones, which is where most TE routes go. There is/was nothing unusual about that against the Dolphins. In zone defenses the defenders pay attention to all receivers. That is their job. Nobody creates a coverage scheme where the defender is supposed to not pay attention to a receiver. To do so would be beyond stupid.

Yes, if Hill and Waddle are on the field they should be 1 and 2 the vast majority of the time. They are the best receivers. they are the ones most likely to get open. They are the ones that are most dangerous. And the Dolphins have been both hugely efficient and hugely productive throwing to them the last two years.

The chances are far, far greater that Hill or Waddle will dominate the game than Berrios. That is among the many reasons why one should throw to them more and make them higher in the progressions.

The targeting of Hill and Waddle is a good thing. It is not something that is broken. It is not something that should be changed. Over the last two seasons the Dolphins have gained 10.5 yards per target when targeting Hill and Waddle. That is the most efficient WR pairing in modern NFL history. Hell, compare the combo of hill and Waddle over a 2 year period to the single best YPT seasons of some of the very best WRs in NFL history:

Calvin Johnson -- 10.6 (only season over 10)
Jerry Rice -- 10.5 (only season over 10, but didn't track targets early in his career)
Antonio Brown -- 9.4
Larry Fitzgerald -- 9.3
Marvin Harrison -- 9.3

But you want McD to change the offense to target Hill and Waddle less?
 
Fineas said:
Needless to say, McD cannot possibly ignore an open receiver because there is no way to know if he is open before the play and once the play starts MCD has about as much control over where the ball goes as you are I do.
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Here is what we know. Every OC has people in the booth feeding them with observations (e.g., the right CB is giving Berrios soft zone. He's open on stop routes.) Thus, the OC knows, as much as possible, Berrios 'should' be open at times. Or 'the ILB is dropping deep. Shallow crossers should work.' Those are the types of plays Mcd seemed to ignore.

I don't want to target TH/Waddle a *LOT* less. They are the weapons Mcd needs to exploit. I've never disagreed with that. OTOH, 'taking what the D gives' is tried and true. I just want Mcd to target receivers and use play types when the D doesn't have personnel to stop them.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Here is what we know. Every OC has people in the booth feeding them with observations (e.g., the right CB is giving Berrios soft zone. He's open on stop routes.) Thus, the OC knows, as much as possible, Berrios 'should' be open at times. Or 'the ILB is dropping deep. Shallow crossers should work.' Those are the types of plays Mcd seemed to ignore.

I don't want to target TH/Waddle a *LOT* less. They are the weapons Mcd needs to exploit. I've never disagreed with that. OTOH, 'taking what the D gives' is tried and true. I just want Mcd to target receivers and use play types when the D doesn't have personnel to stop them.
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By the time the offense is at the LOS and anyone can see what the defense is doing, the play has been called and there is not much time to communicate anything to McD so he could then convey it to Tua. And even if there was, I don't understand why you think the mere alignment of defenders necessarily says much about where the ILB is dropping or whether shallow crossers will work. You do understand that defenses show certain looks and then do something different at the snap, or right before it, right? That was a central tenet of the Fangio defense and most teams now do a lot of that stuff too.

Berrios was open "at times." And some of those times they threw it to him and he caught it. Other times, Berrios was open but so was Hill and/or Waddle. In those situations, I think we should be able to agree that it is better to throw to Hill or Waddle because they are just better and far more dangerous.

Taking what the D gives is something the Dolphins did and did pretty well. We have already covered that the Dolphins were extremely effective at throwing to Hill and Waddle. They were also extremely effective at throwing to the Other Receivers. In fact, despite the fact that those other receivers were all far less talented than Diggs, Adams or Chase, those Other Receivers produced on a per target basis as well or better than Diggs, Adams or Chase:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 58.3% success, 6 TDs
Jamarr Chase -- 145 tgts, 100 rec, 1216 yds, 8.3 ypt, 56.6% success, 7 TDs
Stefon Diggs -- 160 tgts, 107 rec, 1183 yds, 7.4 ypt, 55.0% success, 8 TDs
Davante Adams -- 175 tgts, 103 rec, 1144 yds, 6.5 ypt, 48.6% success, 8 TDs

That is not the norm. The norm is that the #1 receiver is the most efficient, which is why he is targeted the most. The Dolphins accomplished that because they did take what the defense gave them.

Here's how the Dolphins Other Receivers (after top 2 target-getting, including TEs) compared to some of the other top teams in the AFC on a per 149 targets basis:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 6 TDs
Bills' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 111 rec, 1180 yds, 7.9 ypt, 6 TDs
Chiefs' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 89 rec, 1007 yds, 6.8 ypt, 5 TDs.
Ravens' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 94 rec, 1197 yds, 8.0 ypt, 9 TDs


Again, the notion that Tua was regularly throwing to Hill and Waddle when they were heavily covered is belied by all the evidence -- their efficiency numbers, their contested target rates, their separation metrics, etc.
 
Fineas said:
By the time the offense is at the LOS and anyone can see what the defense is doing, the play has been called and there is not much time to communicate anything to McD so he could then convey it to Tua. And even if there was, I don't understand why you think the mere alignment of defenders necessarily says much about where the ILB is dropping or whether shallow crossers will work. You do understand that defenses show certain looks and then do something different at the snap, or right before it, right? That was a central tenet of the Fangio defense and most teams now do a lot of that stuff too.

Berrios was open "at times." And some of those times they threw it to him and he caught it. Other times, Berrios was open but so was Hill and/or Waddle. In those situations, I think we should be able to agree that it is better to throw to Hill or Waddle because they are just better and far more dangerous.

Taking what the D gives is something the Dolphins did and did pretty well. We have already covered that the Dolphins were extremely effective at throwing to Hill and Waddle. They were also extremely effective at throwing to the Other Receivers. In fact, despite the fact that those other receivers were all far less talented than Diggs, Adams or Chase, those Other Receivers produced on a per target basis as well or better than Diggs, Adams or Chase:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 58.3% success, 6 TDs
Jamarr Chase -- 145 tgts, 100 rec, 1216 yds, 8.3 ypt, 56.6% success, 7 TDs
Stefon Diggs -- 160 tgts, 107 rec, 1183 yds, 7.4 ypt, 55.0% success, 8 TDs
Davante Adams -- 175 tgts, 103 rec, 1144 yds, 6.5 ypt, 48.6% success, 8 TDs

That is not the norm. The norm is that the #1 receiver is the most efficient, which is why he is targeted the most. The Dolphins accomplished that because they did take what the defense gave them.

Here's how the Dolphins Other Receivers (after top 2 target-getting, including TEs) compared to some of the other top teams in the AFC on a per 149 targets basis:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 6 TDs
Bills' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 111 rec, 1180 yds, 7.9 ypt, 6 TDs
Chiefs' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 89 rec, 1007 yds, 6.8 ypt, 5 TDs.
Ravens' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 94 rec, 1197 yds, 8.0 ypt, 9 TDs


Again, the notion that Tua was regularly throwing to Hill and Waddle when they were heavily covered is belied by all the evidence -- their efficiency numbers, their contested target rates, their separation metrics, etc.
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I have to give you credit, you do a lot of research ......I wouldn’t even know where to start plus doing all that research would take time away from me listening to Ozzy and Iron Maiden.
 
Fineas said:
By the time the offense is at the LOS and anyone can see what the defense is doing, the play has been called and there is not much time to communicate anything to McD so he could then convey it to Tua. And even if there was, I don't understand why you think the mere alignment of defenders necessarily says much about where the ILB is dropping or whether shallow crossers will work. You do understand that defenses show certain looks and then do something different at the snap, or right before it, right? That was a central tenet of the Fangio defense and most teams now do a lot of that stuff too.

Berrios was open "at times." And some of those times they threw it to him and he caught it. Other times, Berrios was open but so was Hill and/or Waddle. In those situations, I think we should be able to agree that it is better to throw to Hill or Waddle because they are just better and far more dangerous.

Taking what the D gives is something the Dolphins did and did pretty well. We have already covered that the Dolphins were extremely effective at throwing to Hill and Waddle. They were also extremely effective at throwing to the Other Receivers. In fact, despite the fact that those other receivers were all far less talented than Diggs, Adams or Chase, those Other Receivers produced on a per target basis as well or better than Diggs, Adams or Chase:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 58.3% success, 6 TDs
Jamarr Chase -- 145 tgts, 100 rec, 1216 yds, 8.3 ypt, 56.6% success, 7 TDs
Stefon Diggs -- 160 tgts, 107 rec, 1183 yds, 7.4 ypt, 55.0% success, 8 TDs
Davante Adams -- 175 tgts, 103 rec, 1144 yds, 6.5 ypt, 48.6% success, 8 TDs

That is not the norm. The norm is that the #1 receiver is the most efficient, which is why he is targeted the most. The Dolphins accomplished that because they did take what the defense gave them.

Here's how the Dolphins Other Receivers (after top 2 target-getting, including TEs) compared to some of the other top teams in the AFC on a per 149 targets basis:

Dolphins' Other Receivers -- 149 tgts, 107 rec, 1221 yds, 8.2 ypt, 6 TDs
Bills' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 111 rec, 1180 yds, 7.9 ypt, 6 TDs
Chiefs' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 89 rec, 1007 yds, 6.8 ypt, 5 TDs.
Ravens' Other Receivers -- 149 targets, 94 rec, 1197 yds, 8.0 ypt, 9 TDs


Again, the notion that Tua was regularly throwing to Hill and Waddle when they were heavily covered is belied by all the evidence -- their efficiency numbers, their contested target rates, their separation metrics, etc.
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I think part of our problem is you are using season stats. I know everyone has an opinion. Mine is I dislike season stats, so I'll give mine.
1st 5 games. Miami scored 36/ppg. TT's Rating was 111. Completion rate 74%.
Last 5 games. Miami scored 21ppg. TT's rating was 92. Completion rate 69%

TH 1st 5 games. TH targeted 10/g. Caught 7/g. Ypc 16.
TH last 5 games. Only played 3. Targeted 13/g. Caught 7. Ypc 12 Targets vs. catches way down.

1st 5 games. Waddle targeted 7/g. Caught 5. Ypc 14.5
Last 5 games Waddle targeted 7/g. Caught 5. Ypc 23, but one game he had one catch for 50 yds. Excluding that, still 14.5.
So waddle's numbers were consistent. TH numbers went down. TT numbers went down. The entire O went down. I know

I've said this too much, but here goes.
O scoring 1st 5 games. 3Q = 6 TDs (2 against DEN). 4Q = 5 TDs (3 against DEN). Thus, in 4Q, when the O was top ranked, excluding DEN, Miami's high scoring O managed 2 TDs in 4 games.
O scoring last 5 games. 3Q = 1TD. 4Q = 3 TDs. (Those were 17, 12, and 7 yd drives. Not ONE long drive in 4Q).
This has long been my concern. Miami's O consistently faded in 3Q - worse in 4Q, and this includes when the O was allegedly top ranked and injuries hadn't hit. That can't be blamed only on injuries, or 'bad games,' or bad calls/penalties. Excluding DEN, 16 games of 2H deterioration can only be explained by ineptitude.

I know we disagree and I see no chance for agreement on anything, so I'll not hijack a 'which player will impact the team the most' thread to continue.
FWIW, I think Chop will have the most impact late in season with gained experience and JP/Chubb back.
 
Danny said:
I know it's early but was wondering which player you guys think will have the biggest impact on the team. I'm sure many people will say OBJ cause he's a veteran with good numbers in the past but I think we have several guys that will get a chance to make a big impact on the team for different reasons.

Chop Robinson could have an impact because we might be missing our top two pass rushers early on so he'd get a big chance to contribute.

Brewer- how good or bad our OL playes this year will go a long way as to how our team does and Brewer will be our starting center. He'll handle the ball on every down. If he has a good season and stays healthy then he could make a big impact.

Malik Washington- While people assume that OBJ is our #3 WR, Washington can make plays and OBJ has injury history so Malik could get a bigger chance than people think.

Wright-all of our RB's were hurt at some point last year and Wright is another potential playmaker

Fuller- We need a CB opposite side of Ramsey so Fuller could make a big difference on our defense

Poyer-Again, we need a safety to step up next to Holland and Poyer is a veteran that could help our secondary

Anybody else? We have several DT's and at least one or two of them will need to step up. Also, our new TE Smith should get some chances to help

At this point, the one I'm hoping will make the biggest impact is Brewer.......if he turns out to be a good center than our OL could be steady enough for our offense to reach it's potential
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I think given Phillips and Chubbs serious injuries, I wont be surprised if one of them struggles to come back at a high level... so I think one of our two new pass rushers - Kamara or Chop have a great chance to stand out and start for us.
Offensively I like Malik Washington to impress in the slot but it will have to be as WR4 early.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
I think part of our problem is you are using season stats. I know everyone has an opinion. Mine is I dislike season stats, so I'll give mine.
1st 5 games. Miami scored 36/ppg. TT's Rating was 111. Completion rate 74%.
Last 5 games. Miami scored 21ppg. TT's rating was 92. Completion rate 69%

TH 1st 5 games. TH targeted 10/g. Caught 7/g. Ypc 16.
TH last 5 games. Only played 3. Targeted 13/g. Caught 7. Ypc 12 Targets vs. catches way down.

1st 5 games. Waddle targeted 7/g. Caught 5. Ypc 14.5
Last 5 games Waddle targeted 7/g. Caught 5. Ypc 23, but one game he had one catch for 50 yds. Excluding that, still 14.5.
So waddle's numbers were consistent. TH numbers went down. TT numbers went down. The entire O went down. I know

I've said this too much, but here goes.
O scoring 1st 5 games. 3Q = 6 TDs (2 against DEN). 4Q = 5 TDs (3 against DEN). Thus, in 4Q, when the O was top ranked, excluding DEN, Miami's high scoring O managed 2 TDs in 4 games.
O scoring last 5 games. 3Q = 1TD. 4Q = 3 TDs. (Those were 17, 12, and 7 yd drives. Not ONE long drive in 4Q).
This has long been my concern. Miami's O consistently faded in 3Q - worse in 4Q, and this includes when the O was allegedly top ranked and injuries hadn't hit. That can't be blamed only on injuries, or 'bad games,' or bad calls/penalties. Excluding DEN, 16 games of 2H deterioration can only be explained by ineptitude.

I know we disagree and I see no chance for agreement on anything, so I'll not hijack a 'which player will impact the team the most' thread to continue.
FWIW, I think Chop will have the most impact late in season with gained experience and JP/Chubb back.
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I don't understand your suggestion that full season stats are bad, the first 5 games should be looked at and immediately disregarded and the next 7 games aren't even worth looking at. That seems. . . . ridiculous. It also seems silly to focus on only the last 5 games without any recognition or acknowledgement that those games were against the best pass defenses and pass rushes in the NFL. In terms of passer rating allowed, the Ravens were first, Jets were second, the Cowboys were 6th, the Bills were 7th and the Chiefs were 8th. In terms of sacks, the Ravens were first, the Chiefs were 2nd, [the Dolphins were 3rd, the Bills were 4th, the Jets were 7th and the Cowboys were 13th. The Dolphins played those teams with backups at most. of the OL positions and mostly without one of their top two receivers. It goes without saying, but I'll say it anyhow -- it is harder to have an effective passing game against the top pass defenses with the top pass rushes when most of your OL is hurt and half of your top WRs are hurt too. When you cherry-pick a 5 game segment of the season and suggest it matters more than the whole season without even acknowledging how difficult a gauntlet that was to run it's hard to credit any of what you are arguing.
 
Fineas said:
I don't understand your suggestion that full season stats are bad, the first 5 games should be looked at and immediately disregarded and the next 7 games aren't even worth looking at. That seems. . . . ridiculous. It also seems silly to focus on only the last 5 games without any recognition or acknowledgement that those games were against the best pass defenses and pass rushes in the NFL. In terms of passer rating allowed, the Ravens were first, Jets were second, the Cowboys were 6th, the Bills were 7th and the Chiefs were 8th. In terms of sacks, the Ravens were first, the Chiefs were 2nd, [the Dolphins were 3rd, the Bills were 4th, the Jets were 7th and the Cowboys were 13th. The Dolphins played those teams with backups at most. of the OL positions and mostly without one of their top two receivers. It goes without saying, but I'll say it anyhow -- it is harder to have an effective passing game against the top pass defenses with the top pass rushes when most of your OL is hurt and half of your top WRs are hurt too. When you cherry-pick a 5 game segment of the season and suggest it matters more than the whole season without even acknowledging how difficult a gauntlet that was to run it's hard to credit any of what you are arguing.
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Paragraphs it's this thing 👇Screenshot_20240516-205010-611.png
 
JamesWsenior said:
Paragraphs it's this thing 👇View attachment 170693
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No, it's not that "thing." A paragraph is defined:

"paragraph​

1 of 2

noun​

par·a·graph ˈper-ə-ˌgraf
ˈpa-rə-

1
a
: a subdivision of a written composition that consists of one or more sentences, deals with one point or gives the words of one speaker, and begins on a new usually indented line"

What I wrote there was one paragraph. It consists of one or more sentences, deals with one point and gives the words of one speaker (me). The one point it deals with is the absurdity of discarding full season results in favor of just the last five games without any consideration of why those last five games were unique or not fully representative.

I fully appreciate my own snark level here, but I think it is entirely appropriate in response to your post attempting to give a grammar/composition lesson but getting it completely wrong.
 
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