I think like the 49ers, and Detroit, Miami is too reliant on analytics for some in game decisions, and they do not take into account other variables that alter the analytics.
49ers decision to take the ball first was driven by analytics. Rationale was if both teams have the ball, and the game is still tied, THEN the game goes into sudden death. IF that happens, 49ers then have the ball first, and any score wins the game.
OK – big IF. I do NOT care what the computer says when playing Mahomes, and the defense is entirely worn out, AND you are giving that guy (not the average QB), 4 downs on every possession, if you have scored first. That is the downside of taking the ball first. If you score, you give the other team 4 downs to match. You are giving them an advantage. BAD decision in this case.
This strategy reminds me of people in the knockout pool that instead of trying to just win the game in week 1 with a high probability pick, they try to look 10 games out, and pick a marginal team to win in the first week, so they have saved the really good team in win in week 10. That person NEVER makes it to week 10. It does not work. You do what is the highest probability thing to do for the first two possessions that are more predictable, then take your chances with what happens if the game keeps going. You do NOT bet on a series of events you may never come to realize, which is exactly what happened in this game. The 49ers never got the ball back to go to sudden death, and they didn’t get the ball back for a reason – the guy they were up against and the fact their defense was exhausted.
In a situation like this, and given the opponent you are playing against, and given your defense is worn out, and since IF you go ahead you are giving Mahomes 4 downs, I could give a crap what the analytics department says. THEY DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHO THE OPPONENT IS AND ALL THE OTHER VARIABLES LIKE THE DEFENSE IS WORN OUT. The analytics are based on the “average” situation, and this was decidedly NOT the average situation or the average QB you are going against!
Both teams have the opportunity to get the ball at least once during overtime unless the team kicking off received a safety on the team’s initial possession. If one team has more points than its opponent after the two possessions, it is declared the winner.
If the game is tied after the two possessions or neither team scored on their first possession, then the game goes into sudden death.
Coach Kyle Shanahan suggested he had a strategy for overtime.
"If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones with the chance to go win it," he said. "We got that field goal, so we were hoping to hold them to at least a field goal. If we did, we felt it was in our hands after."hg
49ers decision to take the ball first was driven by analytics. Rationale was if both teams have the ball, and the game is still tied, THEN the game goes into sudden death. IF that happens, 49ers then have the ball first, and any score wins the game.
OK – big IF. I do NOT care what the computer says when playing Mahomes, and the defense is entirely worn out, AND you are giving that guy (not the average QB), 4 downs on every possession, if you have scored first. That is the downside of taking the ball first. If you score, you give the other team 4 downs to match. You are giving them an advantage. BAD decision in this case.
This strategy reminds me of people in the knockout pool that instead of trying to just win the game in week 1 with a high probability pick, they try to look 10 games out, and pick a marginal team to win in the first week, so they have saved the really good team in win in week 10. That person NEVER makes it to week 10. It does not work. You do what is the highest probability thing to do for the first two possessions that are more predictable, then take your chances with what happens if the game keeps going. You do NOT bet on a series of events you may never come to realize, which is exactly what happened in this game. The 49ers never got the ball back to go to sudden death, and they didn’t get the ball back for a reason – the guy they were up against and the fact their defense was exhausted.
In a situation like this, and given the opponent you are playing against, and given your defense is worn out, and since IF you go ahead you are giving Mahomes 4 downs, I could give a crap what the analytics department says. THEY DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHO THE OPPONENT IS AND ALL THE OTHER VARIABLES LIKE THE DEFENSE IS WORN OUT. The analytics are based on the “average” situation, and this was decidedly NOT the average situation or the average QB you are going against!
Both teams have the opportunity to get the ball at least once during overtime unless the team kicking off received a safety on the team’s initial possession. If one team has more points than its opponent after the two possessions, it is declared the winner.
If the game is tied after the two possessions or neither team scored on their first possession, then the game goes into sudden death.
Coach Kyle Shanahan suggested he had a strategy for overtime.
"If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones with the chance to go win it," he said. "We got that field goal, so we were hoping to hold them to at least a field goal. If we did, we felt it was in our hands after."hg
