49ers Analytic Driven OT Possession Decision And What It Means For The Dolphins

[The Ghost]

Thats an easy TD to Jennings or Aiyuk.

That is an epic GAFFE.

Detroit wins that game if they were in it.

 

[Dolphin Mule]

Coaching on Mondays always seem to be spot-on.

 

[phinsforlife]

Are you assuming it was analytic driven?

If it is analytics driven please post the analytics.

If SF scored a TD and KC followed with a TD they were going to go for 2. Game over!

KC was prepared for all outcomes and SF wasn’t.

Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules

Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.

www.espn.com

shanahan told everyone after the game it was the recommendation of the analytics department

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Good discussion point. I think I'd go with Shanahan on this one.

Obviously, you've got to drive it down the field and come away with seven. SF has the offense to do that, but three isn't cutting it. Not against Mahomes.

I think getting the ball first in sudden death is a huge advantage. So Shanahan's decision makes sense to me.

 

[royalshank]

First or second, who cares? They needed to score a TD and they came super close. It is what it is

 

[Blake the great]

I prefer common sense.

 

[NBP81]

Good discussion point. I think I'd go with Shanahan on this one.

Obviously, you've got to drive it down the field and come away with seven. SF has the offense to do that, but three isn't cutting it. Not against Mahomes.

I think getting the ball first in sudden death is a huge advantage. So Shanahan's decision makes sense to me.

Even if was analytics driven, it must have been very close to 50/50... These decisions are rarely the ones that matter tbh...

 

[circumstances]

We're calling Man Campbell's repeated brainfarts, that cost his team games, analytics?

At least the anal part's right.

 

[Rick Cartman]

Best victim of analytics is the lions. Missed out on 6 points because they wouldnt kick the FGs. there is a time and a place for it.

If they believed in analytics then they should be going for it on 4th and 4 or closer once they past their 40 every time.
Take the 3, especially when it ties the game, gives you the lead, or makes it a multiple score game.
It's almost as if analytics believes you cannot make a stop on defense.

 

[AdamD13]

shanahan told everyone after the game it was the recommendation of the analytics department

Then they need a new analytics department that would factor in Patrick Mahomes.

If the Niners score they are giving Mahomes 4 downs to convert a 1st down all the way down the field.

Screwicide.

 

[DrMultimedia]

For those that know statistics (and I know some here do), stats rely on infinite occurrences of events. In this current Superbowl with new rules this situation has never occurred in the past. Analytics have limited data as they say.

Even for the extra points vs go for two analytics - there are so many factors that influence it and they never bother to mention that different kickers have different historical data. Lordy. I'm a physicist (retired) and I can't stand what these people have done to sanity in football.

I've also had several martinis already this evening. Lol.

 

[Fred Bear]

Turned out the way I expected

 

[keller377]

OK – big IF. I do NOT care what the computer says when playing Mahomes, and the defense is entirely worn out, AND you are giving that guy (not the average QB), 4 downs on every possession, if you have scored first. That is the downside of taking the ball first. If you score, you give the other team 4 downs to match. You are giving them an advantage. BAD decision in this case

the bolded part undermines the rest of your long post.
You don't think more than 7 minutes of game time helped the defense out?

 

[keller377]

Players not knowing OT rules is unbelievable, that is brutal on coach.
For me, tight game 16-13, 4th and 3 and going for it is crazy, you kick the FG all day in that spot. It was almost ironic that they went for it and ultimately scored TD only to miss the extra point.

10-13.

Yeah, since he missed a PAT, he would have definitely made the kick from the same area.

And then you'd have a decision kick a 53 yard field goal to tie and give Mahomes 2 minutes, 2 timeouts to get a field goal for the win. or do you try 4th and 5 from the 34?

 

[spiketex]

Analytics are a good tool for the decision maker. However, excessive reliance on them can actually expose poor decision making. At the end of the day there will always be a need for good judgement by the play caller. Risk is also dependent on the physical condition of the players who can be impacted by injury and just getting tired. There will be times to be aggressive and there will be times where it is prudent to be conservative and a coach with good judgement understands the difference. An example of a coach who showed excessive reliance on the analytics was Brandon Staley at the Los Angeles Chargers. However, he got it wrong too often and repeatedly blamed the analytics. He is now a former coach.