A Metrics Breakdown of Top Pass Rushers (Pt 2, Pressures)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by NUGap, Mar 26, 2013.

  1. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    A Metrics Breakdown of Top Pass Rushers - Updated with 2nd Tier

    It's been a little while since I've posted one of my stats breakdowns. I've ended up working with TheSidelineView.com. Writing there, I have access to full season statistics compiled with a program called STATS ICE which has every BCS game charted from the entire college football season, so I can spend less time charting and more time breaking down the numbers. This is a breakdown of five of the top pass rushers, looking at pressures, SOS and more. In the past, I posted breakdowns directly on here, but since I have no clue how to format the post that they put up, I'll just link it. Hope you enjoy!



    http://thesidelineview.com/columns/draft/metrics-breakdown-top-pass-rushers-tier-1

    UPDATE:

    Here's tier 2, it's in the same style as the first one since I did all the stats at the same time. It includes Lemonier, Datone Jones, John Simon, Sam Montgomery, and Damontre Moore.

    http://thesidelineview.com/columns/ncaa/metrics-breakdown-top-pass-rushers-tier-2
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 29, 2013
  2. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Forgot to mention two things.

    1. I'll have a 2nd tier out which will include Damontre Moore, Lemonier, Datone Jones, John Simon and Sam Montgomery. Spoiler alert, almost none of Sam Montgomery's metrics are positive.

    2. The next positional grouping I'm working on is running backs, if you have any requests for certain things you would like to see in an analysis of RBs, let me know.
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    48,644
    Likes Received:
    182
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I don't know if you have this ability on STATS ICE but if you're able to break down left data versus right data I do think that would be worthwhile. College is so full of the zone read that guys playing on the left side generally have more to worry about.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    48,644
    Likes Received:
    182
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Also if I could make a suggestion on players to include in the 2nd tier I would suggest that Cornelius Washington and Devin Taylor should be there.

    Jarvis Jones should be in that 1st tier. Not criticizing, just saying he probably should've been in there.
     
  5. Pat-London

    Pat-London A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2009
    Messages:
    1,029
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Awesome work and interesting insight, thanks for sharing.
     
  6. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

    Joined:
    Dec 2010
    Messages:
    1,263
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0


    RBs strike me at first as a difficult group to get good metrics on...good luck! I imagine the difficulties to be scheme/alignment, whether the back kicks a run out himself or whether it's designed to go there (counting inside/off-tackle), what constitutes a broken tackle or contact, and how well they're all blocked for. Two ideas:

    1) I'd be really interested to see yds per carry on 1st-and-10. The idea that it's a balanced down, 50/50 run/pass.

    2) % of carries or receptions on 2nd or 3rd down that get first-downs when the yardage is 4/5 or less. This is really specific, I know...would probably be easier to just see how many times they move the sticks. Just an idea to somehow separate who the good 3rd-down backs are, seeing that we're probably in the market for one.
     
  7. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I wanted that data too, but they didn't have it. You would think that'd be something they keep track of, but for some reason they don't. They'll be adding it next year though.

    To your other point, right now I'm working through someone else to get the data until I get setup fully on the system, and they forgot to add Jarvis Jones. I agree that he should have been in the first tier, but it was just one of those mistakes.

    The second tier is already set with the guys I mentioned because I already ran the stats. But I'll likely do a third tier with those two and a few more. We still have enough time for those guys.
     
  8. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0

    That was what I was finding out too. Here are what I'm looking at:

    Looking at a RB's play style versus their size/weight. That is, using stats like yards after contact, broken tackles, outside runs, etc - look at how much of their game is predicated on power and speed. For instance, let's say I were to look at Daniel Thomas during college and found out his yards after contact and broken tackles were average. You could then divide by his weight and say, well he isn't playing as heavy as he should. This is just the pre-lim thought.

    The other I'm working on right now, is what I'm calling "free runs". That is, runs in which the running back isn't touched or doesn't have to make a football move (juke, spin, etc) within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. The idea being, a good o-line that opens up a big hole would allow anyone to run straight through it. It's not necessarily built on the RB's talents. On a preliminary charting, I found that nearly 40% of Joseph Randle's yardage and 10% of his runs overall came on plays like this compared to 24% of Johnathan Franklin's yardage and 6% of his carries.

    Those are some of my initial thoughts as well as SOS and other standard stats like broken tackles, % runs outside/inside, etc. I like where you're going as well, going to have to mess around with the data a bit and see what comes out.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 26, 2013
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2009
    Messages:
    13,420
    Likes Received:
    107
    Trophy Points:
    63
    If possible, please include Zac Stacy with the RB's.
     
  10. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    50,255
    Likes Received:
    184
    Trophy Points:
    63
    okafor ran a 4.88 at his pro day pretty much tells me why he didn't run at the combine...probably a close to 5.0 guy there...doesn't effect my grade on him though...top 3 pass rusher in the class...and yeah i'm still taking mingo as the top tools pass rusher in the class

    but these things are really cool nugap...
     
  11. WitheringPlant

    WitheringPlant Seasoned Veteran

    Joined:
    May 2005
    Messages:
    1,136
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Shouldn't "pressures per snap" be called "snaps per pressure"?
     
  12. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yes someone else made that point to me as well, I just tossed up an acronym without thinking about it too much. Good catch.
     
  13. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Appreciate that. I just saw the 4.88 for Okafor on walterfootball but I saw 4.7 here on SBNation: http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dr...ts-kenny-vaccaro-marquise-goodwin-alex-okafor

    Did you get the 4.88 from somewhere else or was that your source? Seems like that's a large discrepancy.

    This RosterWatch Tweet had him anywhere between 4.81 and 4.88: https://twitter.com/RosterWatch/status/316666554655850498
     
  14. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    May 2004
    Messages:
    11,799
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Well, I can say one thing for you...you are definitely consistent. I still disagree with Mingo...he is a bust waiting to happen. I would take him at 42 without question but definitely not at 12.
     
  15. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    50,255
    Likes Received:
    184
    Trophy Points:
    63
    pft said 4.88 on their show...either way though for what he is it doesn't bother me...he's a coming forward pass rusher...not much of a run and chase the ball guy or run down things from the backside...okafor goes north and south...and i think he's currently getting undervalued draft wise...a lot of round 2 buzz there that i don't agree with
     
  16. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

    Joined:
    Jul 2008
    Messages:
    50,255
    Likes Received:
    184
    Trophy Points:
    63
    if he's a bust waiting to happen why the heck would you take him at #42??? if anything you avoid him...that's what i do with guys i don't like...avoid em...mingos tools are too good to be a bust outright...his pursuit his accelleration the way he closes on the ball all those things too good...he'll run down things from the backside he should never get to...now if you ask me it's possible as a 34 olb it's a poor fit cause he's another guy you want going north and south and attacking and not east and west as a lb there's a lot of projection there but as a situational 43 de pass rusher with a hand in the dirt with his tools i'll chance that kids talents all day every day with a #12 pick...no question...almost 11 ft long jump shows the lower body explosion he shows on tape 4.5 speed...not 5 seconds like so many of these other slow guys in this draft...

    i'll ride on that kids talents any day...
     
  17. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    May 2004
    Messages:
    11,799
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    48
    He is a physical freak, as you state above, and the chance that he can out it all together warrants a high pick. The fact that he had yet to realize much of that potential keeps me from picking him in round one. Maybe I overstated my case...more accurate would be extremely high risk/extremely high reward. He could be JPP our he could be Gholston, who knows?
     
  18. Canadi-Phin

    Canadi-Phin I hate everyone else in the AFC East

    Joined:
    Jul 2005
    Messages:
    2,204
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    0
    His 8 sacks as a soph were pretty good production. He showed something. Last year it seemed like he didn't feel the pressure to work, seemed like him and Sam M seem to take it for granted and read their press clippings. This kids athleticism is phenomenal. There is so many guys I like at 12 this year, Carradine, Mingo, Werner, pass rushers. Going to be interesting stuff. I think we will have some with some skills. God it would be nice for us to get the dpoy in the draft for nice. Would be great to just actually hit a home run at 12 and then some triples with our others picks.
     
  19. Buddy

    Buddy Right Wing Nut Job Moderator Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    May 2004
    Messages:
    11,799
    Likes Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    48
    If he slid a bit in the first, I wouldn't mind trading up to the bottom of one or top of two. Mingo just scares the hell out of me at 12 when there are so many solid prospects at DE, OT, CB, and WR that could really help our team. However, to Hoops credit, if Mingo's light ever comes on, he and Wake could be epic.
     
  20. cullenbigcstill

    cullenbigcstill FinHeaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2006
    Messages:
    956
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Whats up with Mingo over running plays, mis-diagnosing plays and falling last year. It seemed there were several times he did these things which is why people seem to be down on him, especially with talent around him. IMO he needs to develop with great coaching and i think he may develop into an effective blitzing 4-3 OLB best IMO. It's interesting to me that he is so explosive yet produced little yet Jarvis Jones was a beast in his production, with great talent on his defense as well yet tested alot poorer than I would have thought. Watching him play he does not look like a 4.85 OLB. I actually believe a steal will be JJ's teammate who was mis-used in Cornelius Washington, he is so explosive and has great size and strength he seems to me like he would be a great 4-3 end, would he be a RE in a 4-3?
     
  21. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

    Joined:
    May 2002
    Messages:
    48,644
    Likes Received:
    182
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I'd be interested in seeing a wider array of guys broken down.

    On first glance one thing I like is guys who get a higher percentage of their pressures on 3rd & 4th down. Those are the downs when you need the pressure, the downs where you're less likely to be slowed by various read responsibilities and you've just got to go out there, pin your ears back, and RUSH. As I've watched tape of the FSU guys, both of them, that's what impressed me about them. They didn't get pressure every single snap, but they had a real knack for getting pressure when it counted.

    To be honest I'd love to see the Per Snap data isolated to JUST 3rd and 4th downs, and see how that came out. For example I imagine that Mingo's pass rush snaps would be reduced to, let's say, 150 snaps on 3rd/4th down, and since 32.31% of his pressures came on 3rd/4th down, he'd probably have about 10.5 pressures.
     
  22. NUGap

    NUGap Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2012
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0

Share This Page