I understand this probably goes in the draft forum but I'd like to see it get a little more face time as I worked really hard on it.
I've been working on this for about a week now and I'm finally finished. I really hope our draft looks like this.
1/22/08 Mock Draft
NFL 1st round
1. Miami – Chris Long DE Virginia
- The Dolphins are full of needs throughout the entire defense and would be best suited to trade down, but it’s nearly impossible to fulfill chart value. With swirling rumors that Jason Taylor could be on his way out of Miami, the Dolphins need find his replacement and no one fits the mold of a “Bill Parcels†player then Chris Long. He can play a 4-3 d-end and could also be the hybrid 3-4 player. It’s going to be a 4 month long debate over who the Fins should take, Long or Dorsey, but as of now, I’m going with Long.
2. St. Louis – Glenn Dorsey DT Louisiana State
- After taking Adam Carriker a season ago, the Rams could solidify their defensive line for years to come by selecting Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey is strong, smart, and when healthy, absolutely dominates in the trenches. Whether Carriker winds up being an end or a tackle, this is the smart pick in this situation. Like the Dolphins, the ideal situation for the Rams would be to trade out of this two spot because they have talent at the skill positions and some would argue they won’t get proper value at the #2 spot.
3. Atlanta Y - Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
- Darren McFadden is the perfect person to get Atlanta headed back in the right direction. Warrick Dunn is close to retirement and I question Jerious Norwood’s ability to shoulder an entire load. Not only does McFadden fill a big need for the Falcons at #3, but he’s also the best player available. Although Arthur Blank has expressed interest in investing in a franchise QB of the future, but the Falcons can’t get proper value with Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm or Andre Woodson.
4. Kansas City Y Ryan Clady OT Boise State
- I still can’t justify taking a player that I’m not sure can be a franchise left tackle this high, so Clady gets the nod over Jake Long. It what has been a topsy-turvy past two seasons for the Chiefs, their strong suit is now their defense. Dwayne Bowe is going to be a star receiver and while the Chiefs might want to pursue a quarterback, I think Brodie Croyle gets one more shot. Clady is a monster that has the quickness and technique to be the staple of the Kansas City line for years to come.
5. Oakland Y Sedrick Ellis DT Southern California
- Lane Kiffin had a solid off-season in his first try in 2007, and did so by fine tuning the offense. In the 2007 season, the defense completely let the Raiders down. Warren Sapp regressed after finding the fountain of youth in 2006 and his porous season led to his retirement. The Raiders could select Jake Long here, but I’m still skeptical on his status to be a left tackle which would warrant a top 5 selection. Sedrick Ellis has flown under the wing of Glenn Dorsey this season, but had a fine 2007 campaign at USC. He needs to have an impressive combine and senior bowl to solidify him self as a top 10 pick, but I have no doubts he can do that.
6. NY Jets Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
- A sub par performance in the National Championship game may have diminished any hope Gholston had of going #1 to Miami, but he’s still a top 10 pick. The Jets have some nice young talent sprinkled across their entire roster, but defensive line is their biggest need. Gholston’s explosion and amazing speed off the edge is something teams in the AFC East need in order to pressure Tom Brady.
7. New England(from SF) Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
- Malcolm Jenkins staying in school may have benefited the other 31 teams in the NFL. There’s no way Asante Samuel is staying in New England following this season and this suddenly gives the Patriots a pretty big hole at cornerback. If they want to go into the 2008 season with Ellis Hobbs and Randal Gay as their starting corners, couple that with 4 senior citizens at linebacker, the Patriots are going to have a pretty average defense. Speaking of staying in school, James Laurinaitis staying at Ohio State takes away yet another prospect for the Patriots at #7. Mike Jenkins is quick, physical, and plays the ball well. He has an opportunity to shoot up the draft board this post-season and I think he will do just that.
8. Baltimore Brian Brohm QB Louisville
- Brohm may have been better suited to have cast his draft ballot a year ago but decided to stay his senior season at Louisville. It was a tough year for the Cardinals and Brohm as he threw a lot of interceptions and didn’t win enough games. A lot of mock drafts have Matt Ryan as the first QB off the board, but I’m still a Brian Brohm advocate. His familiarity with an NFL style offense and his experience likely makes him the most polished QB in the 2008 draft. Troy Smith may get a shot at starting in 2008, but just ask the Browns what kind of a luxury it is to have two quarterbacks. Smith pans out and the Ravens shop Brohm, or Smith doesn’t work out and Brohm is their guy, it’s a win-win situation.
9. Cincinnati Dan Connor LB Penn State
- Fresh off winning the Bednarik award for best linebacker in college football, Dan Connor is a sure fire first rounder. His preparation and knack for always being around the ball create similarities with Zach Thomas. Much bigger then Thomas, Connor is fast and powerful at the point of contact. Whenever there was a scrum in a Nitany Lions football game this year, I always saw Connor being peeled from the bottom of the pile. The Bengals need help all over the defensive side of the ball. They’d be best suited having Sedrick Ellis falling to them at number 9 and since I have him off the board, the Bengals go line backer. James Laurinaitis staying in school kills the Bengals draft a little bit. Connor just made a few more million dollars with Laurinaitis’ decision to stay at Ohio State.
10. New Orleans Antoine Cason CB Arizona
- I’m excited for the off-season battle between Mike Jenkins and Antoine Cason for the #1 corner spot in the draft. Jason David very well may be the biggest free agent bust of the 2007 season as every wide receiver that has faced him has made David their personal whipping boy. With Antoine Cason, the Saints immediately have two corners that cover well and attack the football with the Cason/Mike McKenzie pairing. There are needs all over the New Orleans defense but when the opposition continuously picks on one player, it’s clear the team needs a change. Cason plays bigger then his stature suggests he would, and he is a lightning bolt with the football. Cason is a game changing type of player who would also handled punt return duties.
11. BuffaloX Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
- Kelly is a big, strong bodied receiver who has proven (at least in my eyes) to be the top receiver in the draft. This plays right into the Bills hands as they are in dire need of a possession receiver. Lee Evans can fly, and the Bills don’t have any one that can work the middle of the field in order to give Evans the chance to work his deep routes. Trent Edwards protected the football in his first season very well and another target like Kelly will only help his development.
12. Denver X Keith Rivers LB Southern California
- The Broncos defense was one of the NFL’s most surprising units in 2007 and that’s not a good thing. Al Wilson’s neck injury was a much greater loss then I expected and the Broncos defense never rebounded from it. Enter Keith Rivers and the Broncos have a perfect fit as an outside edge rusher. The emergence of Elvis Dummerville and last year’s first rounder Jarvis Moss means the Broncos pass rush is suddenly becoming young and fast. Rivers is the most physically talented linebacker in the draft but he went under Laurinaitis and Connor all season long. This is a match made in heaven at #12.
13. Carolina Matt Ryan QB Boston College
- Seeing Matt Ryan fall to the Panthers at #13 is music to John Fox’s ears. Jake Delhomme certainly isn’t the long term answer and perhaps it was David Carr’s fault in Houston rather then the offensive line. Kenny Phillips is an option here but I don’t think the Panthers can pass up on their franchise quarterback in this spot. Ryan has prototypical NFL size and seems to have a good understanding for how to win football games. His erratic play at times leads to some interceptions, but that’s something that can be fixed by an NFL coach.
14. Chicago Kenny Phillips S Miami
- Following a long line of successful safeties at the U, Phillips will follow in the footsteps of Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, and Brandon Meriweather1st round picks in their respective drafts. With constant injuries to Mike Brown, it’s time for the Bears to being the youth movement not only at safety, but on the majority of the defense. Phillips is a solid safety that rarely gets beat and can make plays on the football. Phillips sliding to Chicago at #14 is a gift and the Bears won’t pass him up.
15. Detroit Aqib Talib CB Kansas
- In a very deep cornerback class, the Lions can fill their biggest need with a very good player in the middle of the first round. The Detroit defense played well up front but it was annihilated through the air. Losing Dre Bly and failing to replace him was the Lions downfall on defense. In the beginning of the season the Lions started 6-2 and it was because it was opportunistic creating turnovers. Talib is small but fast and gets his hands on the football which is exactly how the Lions are going to compete in 2008. I picked the Lions as a “trick†even when they were 6-2 and if it doesn’t upgrade its secondary they won’t move into the “treat†category any time soon.
16. Arizona Pat Simms DT Auburn
- A physical force, Simms had a big junior year at Auburn this past season. His draft stock has been rising the entire year, and he’s the only pick I can justify for the Cardinals at #16. Alan Branch was drafted last year to be the nose tackle in the Cards 3-4, but his terrible work ethic makes him more of a project player then anything. I’ll go on record as saying this is the pick I’m least confident in, in my entire mock.
17. Minnesota Andre Woodson QB Kentucky
- After one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, Adrian Peterson appears poised for superstardom in the NFL. Couple that with Chester Taylor and a superb offensive line, the Vikings have the most vaunted running game in the NFL. Minnesota tried to mold Tarvaris Jackson into a game manager but he couldn’t seem to figure it out. Andre Woodson is a big armed quarterback with a quick release that can make big plays. Minnesota is almost a perfect situation for Woodson because of his lack of mobility. So many “experts†have claimed that to be successful a team must win in the trenches. Well the Vikings are a perfect example that it takes an entire football team to be successful. If the Vikes can find even a lick of a passing game, they could be heavy favorites in the NFC.
18. Houston Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
- Ahman Green has been hurt for much of the year and the Texans aren’t getting production out of the running back position. Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart is a big, strong, physical runner that finishes runs and makes sure defenders know they just played against him. There is a wide array of talented backs in this draft and Stewart is number two on my big board. The Texans have other needs, but running back is a glaring hole and I can predict they will take one in the draft with 100% certainty.
19. Philadelphia Jake Long OT Michigan
- After slipping from the top three to the middle of the first round, the Eagles end Jake Long’s draft day misery as they pluck him out of the green room at number 19. The Giants made it very apparent the Eagles need O-line help when the sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times in a September 30th match up. John Runyan has been a solid tackle but is well on the back nine of his playing career so Jake Long could slide into the starting right tackle job right away (which he’s better suited for then left tackle.) Long lacks the foot work and technique to be a franchise left tackle and that’s why he slips to 19.
20. Tampa BayDeSean Jackson WR California
- There’s only one word to describe DeSean Jackson: playmaker. While the Bucs finally got their first kick return for a touchdown this season in team history, they lack a true difference maker on special teams. The report on Jackson is that he is a more polished Ted Ginn coming into this 2008 draft class. His production tailed off a bit late in the 2007 season but Jackson’s skills should translate well to the NFL. The Bucs were heart broken when the Lions selected Calvin Johnson in the 2007 draft and now the Bucs get their chance at a star wide receiver. Joey Galloway can fly but is 35 years old and nearing the end of his career. The Bucs need receiver help big time and Jackson is a gift at #20.
21. Washington Calais Campbell DE Miami
- While the Redskins could target a WR, I have them improving a pass rush that desperately needs some help. The reason for this is because the draft if much deeper at receiver then it is at defensive end. Whether it’s Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves or Campbell, the Redskins need to do something about their defensive end situation in this draft. Campbell has drawn comparisons to Julius Peppers in terms of explosion and size, but he has a ton of work to do before he’s at that point.
22. Dallas(from Cle) Reggie Smith CB Oklahoma
- Re-signing Patrick Crayton has forced me to change my Dallas selection from a WR to a corner. I had a tough time deciding between Smith and Leodis McKelvin, but I decided on Smith because he is more battle tested then McKelvin. Smith has good size for a corner and is extremely versatile in his abilities. He can return kicks and can play multiple positions in the secondary.
23. Pittsburgh Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
- Oh what a dream scenario this would be for the Steelers. The hometown product and monster in Jeff Otah would do just fine protecting Ben Roethlisberger’s back side for years to come. The Steelers are going to lose Alan Faneca to free agency and their line has underachieved big time this year ranking among the league leaders in sacks allowed.
24.TennesseeAdarius Bowman WR Oklahoma
- I’m the biggest anti-Vince Young proponent on the planet but it’s obvious the Titans think he’s their guy. The Titans wide receivers dropped more footballs then any other team in the league this season and the group lacks talent. Roydell Williams isn’t a true number 1 and Brandon Jones doesn’t seem to have a clue what the NFL is all about just yet. Adarius Bowman is a tall, strong and fast target that would be perfect for the Titans. Tennessee runs the ball pretty well and their offensive line is extremely skilled. The Titans will take a wide receiver with this pick and Bowman is likely the best player available.
25. Seattle Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois
- I questioned the Seahawks decision to throw the checkbook at Shaun Alexander following his 2005 performance rather then giving the dough to Steve Hutchinson. I’d had to toot my own horn up here around these Seahawks folks, but I was right and you were wrong. I have no idea what the Seahawks are going to do with that contract; my guess is that he’ll be a June 1 cut in order to save some money and maybe even some face after that ridiculous deal. Now, Mendenhall comes in and is the starter immediately. Maurice Morris is a nice player but can’t be a full time starter; Morris will do just fine behind Mendenhall. Mendenhall is a monster that is also capable of making the big play (see the 2008 Rose Bowl Game), he is going to have a very nice NFL career.
26. Jacksonville Quentin Groves DE Auburn
- It’s either improving the pass rush or the receiving corps for the Jags, but the emergence of Reggie Williams forces my hand to give the Jags a defensive end. Ernest Wilford is legitimate number 2 act and Matt Jones may some day get it. Dennis Northcut is aging but found the fountain of youth this season and Mike Walker was selected in the 3rd round last year. The Jags may address the WR position in free agency or later in the draft, but for number 1, it’s a DE. Paul Spicer is a good pass rusher, but I question Reggie Hayward since is ruptured Achilles and Bobby McCray doesn’t have any “wow†factor about him. Groves is a little undersized but is lightning quick off the edge. He should be able to benefit from playing next John Henderson and Marcus Stroud on the Jags defensive line.
27. San DiegoFrank Okam DT Texas
- Jamal Williams has been the Chargers unsung hero the past few years but his age and nagging injuries are beginning to draw some red flags. It’s time to start grooming Williams’ replacement and Okay would fit a 3-4 pretty well. He stops the run and after watching Laurence Maroney slash the Chargers in the AFC Championship Game, it’s obvious the Bolts need to focus on that aspect. Okam is a big, strong force that excels in the run game but is by no means a one-dimensional defensive tackle.
28. DallasFelix Jones RB Arkansas
- After tireless attempts at trying to move up and snag Darren McFadden, Jerry Jones finally gets his Arkansas running back. I still think Felix Jones is making a huge mistake foregoing his senior season but he still has a chance to be a first round pick. Rather then developing his skills as a full time starter and making himself a top 10 pick, Jones will settle for the number 28 spot. After Julius Jones’ imminent departure from Dallas, the Cowboys may want to support Marion Barber with another capable back. Jones is the perfect compliment to the powerful Barber as he provides the lightning quick speed.
29. San Francisco (from Ind) James Hardy WR Indiana
- The 49ers offense was supposed to take off in 2007. Frank Gore was fresh off an 1800+ yard season, Alex Smith was showing improvement, it signed Darrell Jackson, and drafted Joe Staley. It couldn’t have erupted any more then it did in the friendliest city on earth. The 49ers desperately need offensive improvement after the unit fell way behind the defense. James Hardy has been, in my eyes, one of the top wide receivers in college football all season. Hardy has 36 career touchdowns at Indiana (just 3 seasons), he is 6’6’’ and runs a 4.5 40 yards dash. The only reason, and the ONLY reason I have him out of the top 15 is because of some off the field issues. This is a steal for the 49ers.
30. Green Bay Leodis McKelvin
- The Packers defense is young and fast. The cornerbacks are old and physical and they need to start thinking about who will be the successors of Al Harris (33) and Charles Woodson (32.) Not only is Harris aging, he got burned by both Terrell Owens and most recently Plaxico Burress in the NFC Championship Game. Small, but lightning fast, McKelvin flies all over the field making plays and couples as a return man as well.
31. NY Giants Terrell Thomas CB Southern California
- It’s hard to pick out weaknesses for a team that’s playing in the Super Bowl, but the Giants have a clear cut need heading into the off-season. R.W. McQuarters and Sam Madison are both old and well past their primes so the Giants need youth at corner. After a barrage of corners has been taken off the board, the Giants settle on a guy that I feel will shoot up the draft boards in the post-season workouts. Thomas is long armed and gets a good jam on receivers which will help the Giants stout pass rush even more.
Y = coin flip will determine 3, 4, and 5 spots.
X = coin flip will determine 11 and 12 spots.
Miami Dolphins Mock Draft
1. (1) Chris Long DE Virginia
- The Dolphins are full of needs throughout the entire defense and would be best suited to trade down, but it’s nearly impossible to fulfill chart value. With swirling rumors that Jason Taylor could be on his way out of Miami, the Dolphins need find his replacement and no one fits the mold of a “Bill Parcels†player then Chris Long. He can play a 4-3 d-end and could also be the hybrid 3-4 player. It’s going to be a 4 month long debate over who the Fins should take, Long or Dorsey, but as of now, I’m going with Long.
2. (32) Fred Davis TE Southern California
- There aren’t a lot of teams pressing for tight ends and no team needs one more then the Dolphins. Davis just might be the 2nd coming of Antonio Gates. He presents a physical mismatch against any DB on the outside, and no linebacker can cover him step for step. I’ve seen Davis catch touchdown passes with linebackers draped all over him but then on the next drive he’s slotted to the outside beating defensive backs. Davis is as versatile as they come and is by far the best tight end in the 2008 class.
2. (59) Shawn Crabble OLB Michigan
- Crabble excels at rushing the passer and would make a career out of following Chris Long to the quarterback. What a pass rushing duo this would make for the Dolphins getting after Tom Brady and the rest of the AFC East quarterbacks. Crabble can play in both the 3-4 and 4-3 so whatever Bill Parcells does in Miami, Crabble can do it.
3. (64) Anthony Collins OT Kansas
- After a solid junior season at Kansas, Collins has decided to forego his senior season and test his luck at the NFL draft. He may be disappointed when he’s not selected on day 1, but the Dolphins will step in and end his misery right away with the first pick of day 2. Collins runs a great 40 time for his speed and just might carry the ability to slot Vernon Carey back to his original right tackle spot.
4. (96) Dwight Lowery CB San Jose State
- There’s a chance Lowery doesn’t fall this far but with the depth of this cornerback class, it’s a possibility. Lowery is known as an “interception machine†and possesses a natural ability of finding the football and making the catch. Lowery is lightning fast registering a 4.38 40 yard dash time and led the nation in interceptions in 2006 with 9.
6. (160) Mario Urrutia WR Louisville
- Targeting best player available at this point, Urrutia makes a fine selection in the 6th round. He’s 6’6’’ and 220 pounds but has some character issues. He’s a little slow off the line of scrimmage and is a bit of a hot head but the potential is too much to ignore at this point.
7. (192) Jaime Silva S Boston College
- If you watched Silva in his bowl game this season, you saw a player who was all over the field making plays. He hits hard and is a terrific project player at this point in the draft. He has a bit of an injury history, but like Urrutia, the upside is too much to ignore.
