Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think? | Page 21 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

it is tough to believe there is not a pretty hard negotiation going on. this is normal. am not sure why it seems to bother people, and it really shouldn't be news or a surprise. football is a business. $200mm is a lot of money, $300mm is a lot of money. anyway you slice it, a lot of money with significant implications for the team. the dolphins are doing their job. tua and his agent are doing their jobs. this one is less clear than other situations for a variety of reasons. hopefully they all come to a good answer, and the team is successful and makes deep playoff runs for the bulk of his new contract: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...phins-are-in-a-tough-spot-with-tua-tagovailoa
 
Tua’s next contract will have huge impact on the the team’s ability to build the team. It can bankrupt a team, figure of speech, if things go the wrong way.
 
Bostonfin said:
Tua’s next contract will have huge impact on the the team’s ability to build the team. It can bankrupt a team, figure of speech, if things go the wrong way.
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That's an overreaction at a minimum.

The worst case scenario is a three year competitive setback.

I realize no one wants that. I certainly don't, but let's not overstate things. The cap grows every year at an increasing rate. It's the percentage of the cap spent on the position, not the raw base number. 50m per is only 17% of a 280m cap. That isn't even close to the commonly accepted problematic zone.
 
phinsforlife said:
Conclusion first, since I think people are missing the question:

Not to bias anyone, I think there is a real hard negotiation going on. My view is something gets done, but the number will be in the 40's as opposed to 50's....this is how negotiations go when both sides have good points, you tend to end up in the middle:

This is not an attempt to start a debate about Tua's merits as a QB. The question is, what is the state of the negotiation? Are the two sides close, or still far apart?

IF the two sides were close, we would have a deal already. Clearly we don't have a deal. So that implies there is a real negotiation going on here.

In any negotiation, the two sides will make their case. Tua's side will say he led the league in passing yards, top QBs get mid 50's million. The Dolphins will say, he still has not won a playoff game, faded down the stretch last year, and needs a lot of help around him that will be impossible to provide if he takes up that much of the salary cap. That is a $30-$35mm per year QB. That also leaves a $20-$25mm per year difference between the two sides. The amount of difference is bigger than the salary of any other single player. The other thing I wonder, is if the Dolphins are saying in their negotiation something akin to "well we can let you play out the 5th year option, and then franchise you the next year, and the total dollars in those two years will be less than $100mm ($50mm per year x 2) so we could just do that." Tua's side will say yeah, but you won't be deferring any of that money into the future to make the cap easier to manage now, and back and forth they go.

THEN, we are seeing a lot more articles and comments like this from the local media, this is the Sun Sentinel today: Chris Perkins: Dolphins shouldn’t give Tua an extension, and certainly not superstar money

Some may think the media thinks independently. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they do things like this at the behest of the team. The team wants stuff like this out there as part of their negotiating strategy. Gets the fans on their side, and they know the guys at the other side of the table see these articles.

The question is, do you think they are close on a deal, and what is the number, years and dollars, and when do you think it will be announced OR are the two sides still far apart and this whole thing is not going as smoothly as people might believe?
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The real issues boil down to the following (2) two questions.

1. Is Tua just a viable QB or something more?

If he is just viable which is what I think , then he is nothing more than a 30-35M QB. If he is more like some here believe than that cost is higher.

2. Is Tua durable enough to warrant long term investment with SIGNIFICANT injury protection for the team?

This is an interesting question, over his career that answer would be a hard no, however last season Tua was one of the few QBs to remain vertical the entire season.

Here is something to ponder, Brock Purdy is basically the same QB as Tua, are Tua and Purdy products of their systems or are they real QBs.
 
Mach2 said:
That's an overreaction at a minimum.

The worst case scenario is a three year competitive setback.

I realize no one wants that. I certainly don't, but let's not overstate things. The cap grows every year at an increasing rate. It's the percentage of the cap spent on the position, not the raw base number. 50m per is only 17% of a 280m cap. That isn't even close to the commonly accepted problematic zone.
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what is your sense of what the commonly accepted problematic zone is? the patriots when they had brady, used to cite 12 or 13% of the cap as the problem area. they could get away with it because brady took a discount, but i don't think that is a realistic scenario in today's world. mahomes was 17% of the cap last year and won, but he is pretty unique, and the team was uniquely well structured - amazing they had such a good D with the budget constraint of mahomes salary.

i am not sure who else recently has won a SB with a QB taking up high teens pct of the cap. my guess is there are a lot of teams that are good with the QB taking up the big hunk of the cap (the bills are another example), not sure anyone else besides the chiefs have won the SB with the QB getting the big money. it is interesting, the last 3 SBs, the opposing team still had the good QB on the rookie deal and alot of money invested in the rest of the roster. i still think that is the best situation.

the bengals did lose to the rams, who were paying stafford, but somehow he was only 7% of the rams cap. now he is up to 20% of the rams cap, and the rams are good but not great. long way of saying, I am not sure what the max number is, but my suspicion is that it becomes problematic in the high teens, and to get away with it the QB has to be mahomes or the GM has to be a super genius like the guy in LA or Philly. kc is so good bc it appears they have the super genius GM too, the QB, and the head coach and DC. quite the combination there
 
phinsforlife said:
what is your sense of what the commonly accepted problematic zone is? the patriots when they had brady, used to cite 12 or 13% of the cap as the problem area. they could get away with it because brady took a discount, but i don't think that is a realistic scenario in today's world. mahomes was 17% of the cap last year and won, but he is pretty unique, and the team was uniquely well structured - amazing they had such a good D with the budget constraint of mahomes salary. i am not sure who else recently has won a SB with a QB taking up high teens pct of the cap. my guess is there are a lot of teams that are good with the QB taking up the big hunk of the cap (the bills are another example), not sure anyone else besides the chiefs have won the SB with the QB getting the big money. it is interesting, the last 3 SBs, the opposing team still had the good QB on the rookie deal and alot of money invested in the rest of the roster. i still think that is the best situation. the bengals did lose to the rams, who were paying stafford, but somehow he was only 7% of the rams cap. now he is up to 20% of the rams cap, and the rams are good but not great. long way of saying, I am not sure what the max number is, but my suspicion is that it becomes problematic in the high teens, and to get away with it the QB has to be mahomes or the GM has to be a super genius like the guy in LA or Philly......
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I believe the thinking in the past was that 20% was the maximum. No idea if that is the current consensus among current GMs. I would think it hasn't changed to a large extent.

I also do not think it is something you can look at as individual years. It should be averaged over the contract length because yearly cap charges are easily manipulated.
 
Mach2 said:
I believe the thinking in the past was that 20% was the maximum. No idea if that is the current consensus among current GMs. I would think it hasn't changed to a large extent.

I also do not think it is something you can look at as individual years. It should be averaged over the contract length because yearly cap charges are easily manipulated.
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yup. i gave you the individual year numbers for stafford and mahomes. over the cap tells you what pct of the salary cap each player is by year. it is interesting what the chiefs did with mahomes, and the rams with stafford, where they pushed the bulk of the hit to out years when they did the deals. i am sure mahomes will get re-done prior to 2025. not sure what the rams do with stafford, my guess is nothing at this point given his age and they will just try to manage around it and be "good" which they will deem sufficient from a business perspective. but i could be wrong.

Patrick Mahomes Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Patrick Mahomes contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history
overthecap.com

Matt Stafford Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Matt Stafford contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history
overthecap.com
 
Yes do a deal the keeps Tua happy. But other players on the team have to realize their pay will not be as high after the Tua deal. Will that possibly impact team chemistry? Hope not.
 
King Gidorah said:
Yes do a deal the keeps Tua happy. But other players on the team have to realize their pay will not be as high after the Tua deal. Will that possibly impact team chemistry? Hope not.
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Doesn't seem to affect other teams. Why would Tua's contract upset his teammates?

So, according to you if Tua gets paid the dolphins will tell other players they can't get what they want because of the QB?
 
Mr Fan said:
The real issues boil down to the following (2) two questions.

1. Is Tua just a viable QB or something more?

If he is just viable which is what I think , then he is nothing more than a 30-35M QB. If he is more like some here believe than that cost is higher.

2. Is Tua durable enough to warrant long term investment with SIGNIFICANT injury protection for the team?

This is an interesting question, over his career that answer would be a hard no, however last season Tua was one of the few QBs to remain vertical the entire season.

Here is something to ponder, Brock Purdy is basically the same QB as Tua, are Tua and Purdy products of their systems or are they real QBs.
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There is no such thing as “just a viable QB.” Either you’re a starting-quality QB in the NFL or you’re not. A starting-quality QB in the NFL is worth whatever it costs to sign them, because you can go 20 years without one, in which case you don’t even enter a season with hope. Best case scenario, your running game and defense carry you to a first round playoff exit and mediocre draft pick. See Miami Dolphins, 2000-2020.

Someone who is actually a starting-quality QB who you don’t desperately want to replace is the single most valuable commodity in football. Sure, ideally your starting QB is Patrick Mahomes, but you can wait 100 years and never get a Patrick Mahomes. When you find a Tua, you pay him and you keep him and you build around him and you hope that you get lucky once or twice and win a Super Bowl. It’s really that simple.
 
Dan Marino retired on March 15 2000. Since that day, the Dolphins have desperately searched for a quality player to become our franchise QB. Little did we know that a baby boy born in Hawaii on March 2 1998 of Samoan heritage named Tuanigamanuolepola Donny Tagovailoa (yes, I now understand why he is just known as Tua), would grow up to be by far the best Dolphins QB since Dan. He may or may not turn out to be elite but he's our best chance to be. However, the next step is to re-sign him to a long term contract. We have to pay him market rates and if that means $55M+ pa, that is what it's going to cost. Despite the media comments trying to fuel a problem, I remain optimistic that a good long term contract can be negotiated with Tua.
 
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Marino2.0 said:
There is no such thing as “just a viable QB.” Either you’re a starting-quality QB in the NFL or you’re not. A starting-quality QB in the NFL is worth whatever it costs to sign them, because you can go 20 years without one, in which case you don’t even enter a season with hope. Best case scenario, your running game and defense carry you to a first round playoff exit and mediocre draft pick. See Miami Dolphins, 2000-2020.

Someone who is actually a starting-quality QB who you don’t desperately want to replace is the single most valuable commodity in football. Sure, ideally your starting QB is Patrick Mahomes, but you can wait 100 years and never get a Patrick Mahomes. When you find a Tua, you pay him and you keep him and you build around him and you hope that you get lucky once or twice and win a Super Bowl. It’s really that simple.
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what does starting quality QB mean? by definition, there are pretty close to 32 of them in the NFL. tannehill was a starting quality QB, because he started here, and was re-signed for a fair bit of money to start here, and then he started in tennessee.
 
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