I want to go back to something I was saying in response to Armando's article which quoted sources saying that right now everything is great between Ross and Ireland.
As Armando's source himself pointed out, if the Dolphins stumble through the final four games then there will be an evaluation. He could change his mind. For me I feel like a watershed moment could be quickly on the horizon. I think the Jaguars game is potentially the turning point that gets the ball rolling on this question of replacing the current General Manager.
The Jaguars are 2-11, headed for the #1 or #2 pick in the NFL Draft. This is a team Miami should beat. On top of that, Chad Henne is their quarterback. The mere thought of Chad Henne coming back and winning on Miami's home field in front of the fans, considering how he couldn't do that in 2009, 2010 or 2011 very well...is something I sense that most fans don't even want to think about. There's not just going to be an assumption of victory because the Jaguars are genuinely a worse team than us on the balance of the year, but because it's just unpleasant to think about if they did win. And so if the Jaguars actually did it...that is going to create shock waves amongst the fans. And I think shock waves around many in the organization. They know they're taking haymakers left and right from quality teams like the 49ers and Patriots, but this is supposed to be the one they can count on...one of the last ones remaining. If Chad Henne has a Daunte Culpepper moment where he's scoring 5 touchdowns in front of the home crowd and openly gloating at the crowd the whole way...I don't think people will be able to take that.
I think that is the moment when Steve Ross makes some phone calls and gets his people conducting secret research projects aimed at identifying good GM candidates. You could see Ross approach Mike Sherman to see if he would play intermediary between Ross and Bill Polian. They'll be busy all the way through the next week when, win-or-lose the Buffalo game it doesn't matter, they'll still be set about their tasks. After the final game against NE which I expect we lose by a large margin, that's when everyone presents their findings, and Steve Ross will make his decision. And I think that decision would be to fire Jeff Ireland.
It's not that the Jaguars game would be the moment Steve Ross decides he's firing Jeff Ireland. It would be the moment he decides that he needs to embark on a full due diligence in order to determine why he should be fired, why he should be kept, and who else is available. A Jaguars loss would get the ball rolling. The point at which the ball starts rolling is always an innocent one. You've not made any decisions, you're just beginning to do your due diligence. But it also takes on its own life and you can anticipate where that is going to lead.
How likely is that to happen?
Well, let's just say I expect Vegas to give a home field 3 points to the Dolphins on this one...maybe gets bet up to 3.5 by the public. If I'm breaking down factors in the game that look like they'll matter I would bring up a couple. For one thing Chad Henne obviously. It always seem to me that when Henne played with an especially heavy chip on his shoulder, he played particularly well. This game is going to mean something to him. I expect to see him at his best. Luckily his best doesn't scare the piss out of you like the best of Aaron Rodgers or the best of Drew Brees. Chad Henne's best you can still deal with but if some players make plays around him, then he'll end up looking good. Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion this week but seem unlikely to miss another week. They've been struggling with Rashad Jennings trying to take ownership of the ground game in place of MJD. However that has failed so miserably this week they gave the keys to Montell Owens who turned in 91 yards on 14 carries with a TD. That's something to watch because if there's a resurgent ground game and Koa Misi is still impacted by injury, that's bad news. The thing that I notice is that the now have Jason Babin. Babin is still a solid pass rusher, in fact he got a sack-strip-recovery today against Sanchez. He will play primarily over Nate Garner's side and while Jon Martin got destroyed by Aldon Smith as we knew he would, the Dolphins privately are more concerned about Nate Garner. There's a strong possibility Babin is able to blow by Nate Garner and make the play that influences the game.
So I boil it down to three factors to watch out for:
1) Cecil Shorts coming back to play with Justin Blackmon who had his coming out party and a re-emerging middle threat Jordan Shipley
2) Chad Henne playing with a serious chip on his shoulder, always seemed to play better in those situations
3) Jason Babin rushing primarily over Nate Garner, could be a big liability throughout the game
4) Re-emergence of the Jaguars ground attack led by Montell Owens, going up on a potentially banged up linebackers unit
5) Paul Posluszny and those extremely well coached linebackers erasing whatever screen game we think to throw at them
The culture of one-upsmanship has already seen a banner being flown over the stadium calling for the GM's ouster. The culture of one-upsmanship has seen a couple dozen fans show up in front of headquarters to protest. I'm wondering what's next on the agenda if the Dolphins drop their 6th loss out of 7 games. The following game against the Buffalo Bills is the final home game of the season...perfect time for these guys to hatch whatever they're going to do, be it more banners, more protests, chickens running through the parking lot...anything.
