Big money on WR not the answer

[ckparrothead]

I actually agree with all this talk about big money wide receivers. And I think there's a possibility that Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe became examples 1a and 1b of the danger involved in signing a free agent wide receiver to a big money deal.

But I see Greg Jennings as an EXCEPTION, for a couple of reasons:

1. He's being unfairly discounted for injuries which are not long term damaging
2. He's 29 years old but people are discounting him as if he's 33 years old
3. He knows the system and "grew up" in Joe Philbin's offense, this is a factor not to be understated
4. Brian Hartline is a free agent, putting Miami in position of needing to sign a free agent, even if just to re-sign Hartline
5. There's a strong chance the amount you pay a Greg Jennings is only marginally (~2 mil/yr) more than Hartline

Given all those things, yes I do consider a Hartline-for-Jennings swap to be a worthwhile upgrade. If Brian Hartline is demanding $6 million a year and you are seriously considering paying it, why in holy hell would people not consider paying Greg Jennings $8 million a year instead?

But then, maybe you shouldn't be considering EITHER. Maybe the Dolphins should say goodbye to both Hartline at $6 million a year, and Jennings at $8 million a year. That at least makes a hell of a lot more sense to me than paying Hartline $6 million a year where Jennings may be able to be had for $8 million.

 

[dlockz]

I actually agree with all this talk about big money wide receivers. And I think there's a possibility that Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe became examples 1a and 1b of the danger involved in signing a free agent wide receiver to a big money deal.

But I see Greg Jennings as an EXCEPTION, for a couple of reasons:

1. He's being unfairly discounted for injuries which are not long term damaging
2. He's 29 years old but people are discounting him as if he's 33 years old
3. He knows the system and "grew up" in Joe Philbin's offense, this is a factor not to be understated
4. Brian Hartline is a free agent, putting Miami in position of needing to sign a free agent, even if just to re-sign Hartline
5. There's a strong chance the amount you pay a Greg Jennings is only marginally (~2 mil/yr) more than Hartline

Given all those things, yes I do consider a Hartline-for-Jennings swap to be a worthwhile upgrade. If Brian Hartline is demanding $6 million a year and you are seriously considering paying it, why in holy hell would people not consider paying Greg Jennings $8 million a year instead?

But then, maybe you shouldn't be considering EITHER. Maybe the Dolphins should say goodbye to both Hartline at $6 million a year, and Jennings at $8 million a year. That at least makes a hell of a lot more sense to me than paying Hartline $6 million a year where Jennings may be able to be had for $8 million.

If we are considering paying Hartline 6 million a year we are not very bright. I like Jennings but at 8 mill a year it seems a risky bet esp considering he had actually one very good game this year. I would be fine with whatever they pay him as long as they dont go over 3 years. Still dont see why we decided not to pursue Wayne who will cost less and could have added a Jennings without breaking the bank this year.

 

[Ferretsquig]

It's very hard to draft a WR who makes an impact in season 1. Like someone said earlier, Torrey Smith, Dez, Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, etc. were not forces right away. AJ Green (and Julio) is an exception (and was waay more talented than anyone in this draft).

If you want Tanny to have a legit #1 target next season, he will probably have to come from free agency.

Blackmon, Wright, Gordon, Hilton, Floyd, Givens..... Actually I think this year's draft had about a 50% hit rate when it came to impactful rookie wideouts in the first few rounds.

 

[The Omen]

Blackmon, Wright, Gordon, Hilton, Floyd, Givens..... Actually I think this year's draft had about a 50% hit rate when it came to impactful rookie wideouts in the first few rounds.

How may recievers were taken last year? You named 6 guys... I know Hilton was the 16th WR taken... Not even close to 50% hit rate. Although I do see where you are going with this... WR isn't anymore special than other positions in the draft as far as success. Russell Wilson was what the 5th or 6th QB taken?

 

[Ferretsquig]

13th by my count......not that it really matters. The point was that you can find players that will make an immediate impact in the draft, with a success rate not too far off from free agent signings. Around this time next year you'll be able to look back at the free agent wide receivers that switched teams and more than half will be complete failures in their new environment.

 

[LDaniel7]

I actually agree with all this talk about big money wide receivers. And I think there's a possibility that Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe became examples 1a and 1b of the danger involved in signing a free agent wide receiver to a big money deal.

But I see Greg Jennings as an EXCEPTION, for a couple of reasons:

1. He's being unfairly discounted for injuries which are not long term damaging
2. He's 29 years old but people are discounting him as if he's 33 years old
3. He knows the system and "grew up" in Joe Philbin's offense, this is a factor not to be understated
4. Brian Hartline is a free agent, putting Miami in position of needing to sign a free agent, even if just to re-sign Hartline
5. There's a strong chance the amount you pay a Greg Jennings is only marginally (~2 mil/yr) more than Hartline

Given all those things, yes I do consider a Hartline-for-Jennings swap to be a worthwhile upgrade. If Brian Hartline is demanding $6 million a year and you are seriously considering paying it, why in holy hell would people not consider paying Greg Jennings $8 million a year instead?

But then, maybe you shouldn't be considering EITHER. Maybe the Dolphins should say goodbye to both Hartline at $6 million a year, and Jennings at $8 million a year. That at least makes a hell of a lot more sense to me than paying Hartline $6 million a year where Jennings may be able to be had for $8 million.

Excellent analysis and philosophy.

Why anyone would pay for a possession WR like Hartine who adds next to nothing in downfield threat and has to get open most times by running back toward the LOS [zero pressure on D re: catch and run] - a WR that creates exponential angles for DBs to make plays -- NEVER destroys D angles and allows the field to be crunched.... AND is so limited in talent that of all his weaknesses, he is WORST in the redzone -- criminy! If Jennings can be had for 2 mill more than he is asking, then show Hartline the door and sign Jennings in a flash.

Even if Jennings gets hurt or otherwise under-performs, at least you got rid of a MEDIOCRE WR who held back the position from being used as something to attack Ds with.

LD

 

[tylerdolphin]

I actually agree with all this talk about big money wide receivers. And I think there's a possibility that Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe became examples 1a and 1b of the danger involved in signing a free agent wide receiver to a big money deal.

But I see Greg Jennings as an EXCEPTION, for a couple of reasons:

1. He's being unfairly discounted for injuries which are not long term damaging
2. He's 29 years old but people are discounting him as if he's 33 years old
3. He knows the system and "grew up" in Joe Philbin's offense, this is a factor not to be understated
4. Brian Hartline is a free agent, putting Miami in position of needing to sign a free agent, even if just to re-sign Hartline
5. There's a strong chance the amount you pay a Greg Jennings is only marginally (~2 mil/yr) more than Hartline

Given all those things, yes I do consider a Hartline-for-Jennings swap to be a worthwhile upgrade. If Brian Hartline is demanding $6 million a year and you are seriously considering paying it, why in holy hell would people not consider paying Greg Jennings $8 million a year instead?

But then, maybe you shouldn't be considering EITHER. Maybe the Dolphins should say goodbye to both Hartline at $6 million a year, and Jennings at $8 million a year. That at least makes a hell of a lot more sense to me than paying Hartline $6 million a year where Jennings may be able to be had for $8 million.

I dont know the details of our cap situation, but could we not sign both Hartline and Jennings and still have a decent amount of money leftover?