"Choosing the BPA" Strategy = Failure.......the Final Word.

[TrinidadDolfan]

well I don't think that choosing BPA is necessarily blind either.
imo, you want to aquire the best players possible every draft and just because you have a good player at a particular position, doesn't mean you pass up an elite player at that same position. you can always trade the good player for someone else that helps you win

Well, you would pass on going from a "good" kicker to elite if you could go from terrible QB to good QB.

Once again the BIPA wins

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Choosing the BPA is not, and never will be, the way to go.

I will invent a new term: BIPA (Best IMPACT Player Available). There, my friends, lies the path to success.

Lets examine some analogies:

Scenario #1 >>> You buy a house and you have $100 to renovate. It just so happens that Home Depot is having an unbelievable $100 "special" on windows this month (normally selling for $500), and everything else is at "regular prices". Now, this is a once-a-year opportunity to get a whopping 80% discount on some windows! Great!.....Well not so great. Seems as though your windows are in good shape, but you have holes in your roof. Well, in this case you spend your $100 on roof repairs so the rain stops pouring through and destroying your furniture. Not the "Best Deal Available", but it will make the "Best Impact" on your house. You have made the right choice.

Scenario #2 >>> You own a firm that attends a job fair once per year, and can only afford to hire 1 person. You meet a Harvard-educated accountant that will come on board for "cheap" because he loves the weather in Florida. Fantastic value, the BEST value. Problem is, your accounting needs are really basic, and you already have a person doing the job well. What you really need is a painter since your firm renovates apartments and your only painter keeps using the wrong colour. Upset customers are threatening to sue you. You hire the new painter because his addition will make the biggest IMPACT on your business.

NFL Scenario >>> You pick at #8. Hmmmmm....BPA is clearly a Left Tackle, all agreed. Problem is, you have Jake Long entrenched in that position, and he is great. Taking the LT will not significantly upgrade your TEAM. However, if there is a talented QB (HUGELY important position) there, and your current QB is one of the worst in the league, then you take the QB. Period. Team instantly UPGRADED because you took, not the BPA, but because you took the BIPA.

Re:

Scenario 1) If the windows were truly worth $500 I'd borrow or beg until I made darn sure I had enough $100 allotments to be resold at tidy profit as soon as the weird short term Home Depot sale ended. If I had to gamble on no rain, or apply a temporary homemade fix to the roof in the meantime, so be it. The family will be smiling when those $100 investments fetch many times what we paid.


Scenario 2) You lost me here, unless I missed something. You indicated there was room for one net new hire. Fire the color blind existing painter, replace him with the competent painter, and you still have room for the Harvard bargain.

***

Toward the quarterback, who says he is talented enough to warrant that 8th spot, and when did they say it? That's the aspect that irks me, failure to recognize that tape study is not the only approach, and it's increasingly flawed in the late going, as deadline nears with a frenzy to hype. If a guy was a known quantity and rated 50th or 80th or lower a year ago, or when the season debuted, then chances are that's where his true value will settle, not 8th or higher. It's like the guy on eBay who gets into a bidding war and refuses to let go, eventually paying far beyond the initial Buy It Now price.

It's more fun to nitpick every play and subjectively spit out a summary. I fully understand that. I've been around it for 25+ years in Las Vegas. The results don't warrant the insanely high number of hours invested. You aren't jumping from 52% accuracy to 98%, and in many cases the wide scope perspective is far superior.

I'll provide an example from the recently concluded NCAA tournament. Digger Phelps picked Michigan State to prevail. He was hardly alone. And I'm sure there were reasons to like that team, if you prefer watching point guards, or whatever, the ever popular "tape" world. Meanwhile, there were those of us in the betting realm who salivated to oppose Michigan State, because they were trying to defy a long established upstart trend. Any team that was unranked in preseason, yet entered the tournament seeded #1 or #2, while ranked in the Top 10 to end the regular season, had an 0-41 history of even REACHING the Final Four. Make that 0-42. I was aware of that trend because it goes along with everything I believe in, that early evaluation dominates late hoopla. The preseason analysts were correct to devalue Michigan State but the same type of handicappers who obsess over last week's result and look at nothing but tape decided the Spartans fit as a #1 seed and perhaps the eventual title holder.

Try to find a 42-0 outcome based on something you witnessed, using the same tape and similar criteria as everyone else. Best of luck.

If we draft a quarterback early in the first round I'd like it to be someone who was projected there forever. Griese and Marino were early stars in college, both finishing high in the Heisman vote as juniors.

 

[dr.jake]

luck,rg3,blackmon.kalil,claiborne are almost all but assuredly gone by pick #8.
trent richardson to me makes no sense becuz the right side of our O-LINE sucks.he ain't goin' nowhere.
WR also seems a waste and is one of the most easily filled positions later. rieff/decastro fill an immediate but unglamorous need. our O-LINE sucks! defensively seems the ILB'S are thinner than the OLB's this year and although we could use a great safety 8 seems a little bit high for barron.

 

[TheWalrus]

Perhaps the disconnect on Tannehill is that the media hype train on him is only now coming into the station, compared to the reports we've now seen (granted, anonymous ones) that NFL people have had him flagged as a potential top pick since last year.

Awsi -- if those reports are accurate, how much would that move the needle for you as far as Tannehill's concerned?

 

[Mudder1310]

OP post is simply not relevant to the NFL, or any line of work with extremely limited workforce. There are millions of accountants or painters. Each year there are only 32 starting QBs. If we could simply keep trying new folks out, or hiring them from other firms/teams (headhunting) it would work. The truth is an nfl team will always need more talent, even the best ones.

 

[dr.jake]

i'd be curious to know when the first actual tannehill draft reference post appeared on this board.this guy ain't exactly been on the cover of sports illustrated or anything. when did the buzz begin???

 

[LANGER72]

In the first round, I would take the best talent available regardless of position, especially when you are drafting top 10.
After that, you go for the best player that fill the teams immediate needs. Just my opinion.

In any other year, Tannehill would be a low first or second round pick.

 

[rent this space]

a good example of why drafting for a need over the BPA can hurt you is the 2007 draft. Mueller/Cameron drafted for an apparent need (Ginn at WR) instead of the best player available (Patrick Willis at LB). looking at that team with Thomas, Crowder, Taylor and newly aquired Joey Porter, you would say they didn't need a LB. flash forward 2 years later when you have the likes of Charlie Anderson, Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor, Willis would have been nice to have