Clearing the Air on the 2nd pick and Potential Trades

[Da 'Fins]

There is a lot of speculation about what Saban should do in the draft. Several of the ideas seem to ignore some key factors. I'm sure I'll miss some and that's part of the reason for this thread.

First - what we know:
So far, there are no real studs at the top of the draft that several teams (even the Dolphins) want at that slot. There is no consensus - despite the calls on this board that we MUST DRAFT PLAYER X! - Please! :shakeno:

We also know the Dolphins have several need or potential need areas - RB, OL, DT, OLB, WR, SS/FS, QB (I'll let you figure out the order - there's much disagreement there). Some of this will depend on who gets released before the draft and what free agents, IF ANY, we go after before the draft.

Second - Issues related to taking this pick or trading down:
1) There are difficulties with trading down this year because the talent level is not that different from the 8th or 10th pick. So, the demand is not there. And, if the Dolphins were to seek a trade to get out of #2, they certainly CANNOT expect all sorts of dreamy picks that many are speculating about. Please stop! :yell: :D

2) The one hope the Dolphins do have of trading down is if a team or teams has their eye on one or two top players at a position of need that are worthy of the #2 but are not expected to fall to them some 6-8 picks down. For example - If Williams & Edwards - the two WR's in the top 10 right now - really shine - they could rise to the top of the board. If a team at #8 or 10 really gets the "hots" for one of these and they are convinced neither will be there, they may be very willing to trade up. However, it is STILL unlikely that they will offer more than a 2nd round pick in combination.

3) All things being equal - the Dolphins would do well to trade down, even if they don't get "typical" value. Value is ultimately relative and changes year to year. Obviously we don't want to trade ourselves out of getting a quality player. Nor drop 10 spots to pick up a 5th rounder! But, if the Dolphins drop to #8, again as an example, there still should be some solid value players available there at positions they have need (take your pick!); and, if they get a 2nd round pick for that, it would be a good move, imo. Yes, it would not be typical value. But, this team needs many players and I think Saban can draft well enough to get great value out of the 2nd round pick.

4) Getting multiple draft picks for Surtain would be a boon. Several are saying that we have to get a #1 or it's not worth it. Ultimately, the market for Surtain will decide the matter and Saban will have to decide. I think a 2nd & 3rd or a 2nd this year and 2nd next would be decent - given the whole circumstances.

Third - The More Picks The Better Philosophy:

This is a key, in my estimation. New England has done a great job of accumulating draft picks over the years, despite it's winning ways. No matter how good the drafter is, they will pick busts. Having a few picks makes the pressure that much more to get the PERFECT selection. This is what Wannstedt did to himself by trading picks (Spielman has done it as well). It is, imo, a HUGE mistake. It makes the draft more difficult, more pressurized, and it is a recipe for failure.

Ideally, we want to accumulate picks. Some of the best players on the best teams are not #1 draft choices - but are found in the middle rounds. I also remember a number of years ago the Dolphins had 17 #1 draft picks on the team (I believe it was Shula's last year) - and most were duds.

So, I am all for getting more picks and doing whatever possible to accumulate them. At the same time, I'm willing to give Saban the benefit of the doubt on his drafts - until we see what happens 3-4 years down the road. We can all cry about player X who should have been drafted. But, most of those we complain about at the time, turn out to be wrong (except in a few instances).

Be Cool ...

 

[Bowl_Bound]

Good post!
However I do disagree that we cant trade down. We wont get the "equal value" according to the chart but this year the chart must be tossed out the window. The "value" at the top is lower and the "value" later is higher. Therefore we could trade down a few spots and pick up a third or so and I would not cry about that. Especially is we only drop a few spots and let others pick players we would pass on anyway like WRs and QBs etc.

 

[fishypete]

With the exception of O-line....there's enough talent in the first three rounds...so I say trade down and pick wisely.

 

[ch19079]

strange.... i agree with most of what your saying. :D

but i can see a few teams wanting to trade up to the #2 spot. true there is no "this is the greatest player to come out since LT" talk, but there are several good players.

and a trade up from ~5th to #2 SHOULD cost them a 1st round pick next year. and we all know a 1st rounder next year is the same as a 2nd round pick this year.

that said, i see the fins taking less to trade down. the more picks the better.

 

[fishfan34]

If i've said it once, i've said it, well at least once. Anyways, there is really no way to know how we should draft until the free agency period and any potential trades are completed. Then we'll have a more clear picture of our Needs vs BPA...

 

[BlueFin]

There is a lot of speculation about what Saban should do in the draft. Several of the ideas seem to ignore some key factors. I'm sure I'll miss some and that's part of the reason for this thread.

First - what we know:
So far, there are no real studs at the top of the draft that several teams (even the Dolphins) want at that slot. There is no consensus - despite the calls on this board that we MUST DRAFT PLAYER X! - Please! :shakeno:

We also know the Dolphins have several need or potential need areas - RB, OL, DT, OLB, WR, SS/FS, QB (I'll let you figure out the order - there's much disagreement there). Some of this will depend on who gets released before the draft and what free agents, IF ANY, we go after before the draft.

Second - Issues related to taking this pick or trading down:
1) There are difficulties with trading down this year because the talent level is not that different from the 8th or 10th pick. So, the demand is not there. And, if the Dolphins were to seek a trade to get out of #2, they certainly CANNOT expect all sorts of dreamy picks that many are speculating about. Please stop! :yell: :D

2) The one hope the Dolphins do have of trading down is if a team or teams has their eye on one or two top players at a position of need that are worthy of the #2 but are not expected to fall to them some 6-8 picks down. For example - If Williams & Edwards - the two WR's in the top 10 right now - really shine - they could rise to the top of the board. If a team at #8 or 10 really gets the "hots" for one of these and they are convinced neither will be there, they may be very willing to trade up. However, it is STILL unlikely that they will offer more than a 2nd round pick in combination.

3) All things being equal - the Dolphins would do well to trade down, even if they don't get "typical" value. Value is ultimately relative and changes year to year. Obviously we don't want to trade ourselves out of getting a quality player. Nor drop 10 spots to pick up a 5th rounder! But, if the Dolphins drop to #8, again as an example, there still should be some solid value players available there at positions they have need (take your pick!); and, if they get a 2nd round pick for that, it would be a good move, imo. Yes, it would not be typical value. But, this team needs many players and I think Saban can draft well enough to get great value out of the 2nd round pick.

4) Getting multiple draft picks for Surtain would be a boon. Several are saying that we have to get a #1 or it's not worth it. Ultimately, the market for Surtain will decide the matter and Saban will have to decide. I think a 2nd & 3rd or a 2nd this year and 2nd next would be decent - given the whole circumstances.

Third - The More Picks The Better Philosophy:

This is a key, in my estimation. New England has done a great job of accumulating draft picks over the years, despite it's winning ways. No matter how good the drafter is, they will pick busts. Having a few picks makes the pressure that much more to get the PERFECT selection. This is what Wannstedt did to himself by trading picks (Spielman has done it as well). It is, imo, a HUGE mistake. It makes the draft more difficult, more pressurized, and it is a recipe for failure.

Ideally, we want to accumulate picks. Some of the best players on the best teams are not #1 draft choices - but are found in the middle rounds. I also remember a number of years ago the Dolphins had 17 #1 draft picks on the team (I believe it was Shula's last year) - and most were duds.

So, I am all for getting more picks and doing whatever possible to accumulate them. At the same time, I'm willing to give Saban the benefit of the doubt on his drafts - until we see what happens 3-4 years down the road. We can all cry about player X who should have been drafted. But, most of those we complain about at the time, turn out to be wrong (except in a few instances).

Be Cool ...

Speak for yourself.....I've been right on a lot of picks.

That being said, I have much more confidence in Saban than I do or did in Wannstedt and Spielman.

Whatever he decides is good with me, until he proves thru failure in drafts that his decisions are questionable I'll trust him.

 

[MDFINFAN]

If i've said it once, i've said it, well at least once. Anyways, there is really no way to know how we should draft until the free agency period and any potential trades are completed. Then we'll have a more clear picture of our Needs vs BPA...

I'm not sure if anyone is listening, but this is exactly what will determine our need, our thoughts on trading down, in other words, our strategy for the draft. I hear you and agree.

 

[ckparrothead]

I'm all for trading down, however, I disagree with the notion that there is no clear #2 choice in the draft.

This is a strange year, but there actually IS a clear #2 talent in the draft, if you pay attention to all of the draft sites and mock drafts and everything. They may disagree on whether Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith go to the 49ers at #1, though most say Rodgers, nearly ALL of the mock drafts say Cedric Benson goes to Miami at #2.

To me, that much is about as "concensus" as in any draft I've ever paid attention to, maybe even more so. Out of a survey of 40 mock drafts, no less than 30 of them have Benson as the #2 pick in the draft. There is a concensus that he is the overall best runningback if you disregard the character issues. I'm not saying we should get Benson, personally I still like Cadillac especially for Linehan's offense, but I am just saying if you're trying to build a logical argument and one of your foundations is the idea that there is no concensus player that the Dolphins should take at #2, I think you're dead false.

 

[Da 'Fins]

I'm all for trading down, however, I disagree with the notion that there is no clear #2 choice in the draft.

This is a strange year, but there actually IS a clear #2 talent in the draft, if you pay attention to all of the draft sites and mock drafts and everything. They may disagree on whether Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith go to the 49ers at #1, though most say Rodgers, nearly ALL of the mock drafts say Cedric Benson goes to Miami at #2.

To me, that much is about as "concensus" as in any draft I've ever paid attention to, maybe even more so. Out of a survey of 40 mock drafts, no less than 30 of them have Benson as the #2 pick in the draft. There is a concensus that he is the overall best runningback if you disregard the character issues. I'm not saying we should get Benson, personally I still like Cadillac especially for Linehan's offense, but I am just saying if you're trying to build a logical argument and one of your foundations is the idea that there is no concensus player that the Dolphins should take at #2, I think you're dead false.

"Dead false?" haven't heard that one

Anyway, your misreading (or perhaps I miscommunicated) what I wrote. It's an apples/oranges situation. You're writing about who pundits THINK WILL BE PICKED at that spot. I'm writing about the TALENT LEVEL at that spot. The consensus about Benson is not based on the fact that they think Benson is necessarily head and shoulders above the rest in talent, after the #1 pick, but based on a) what SF will do and their needs (a QB); and b) the Dolphins needs (RB) and the general belief that Benson is the best RB.

However, I'm building a logical argument that there is no clear-cut player in the #2 slot that is head and shoulders above the #6 or #8 player - at this point. Even you favor Cadillac over Benson. And, I think the Dolphins might still be able to get a Cadillac after a trade down a few slots.

 

[Da 'Fins]

If i've said it once, i've said it, well at least once. Anyways, there is really no way to know how we should draft until the free agency period and any potential trades are completed. Then we'll have a more clear picture of our Needs vs BPA...

I agree, and said that in the 3rd paragraph. However, I doubt we'll fill so many needs in free agency that we won't need more picks. It could be, of course, that a player emerges in the 2nd slot who is so tempting that Saban can't pass him up. That often happens as the draft emerges. But, given play on the field - it's hard to see two or three of the top ten really separating themselves from the pack, imo.

And, I'm not just going on "needs vs BPA" - that would be an oversimplification of what I was noting. I think we can still go with BPA and help with other needs by trading down. Further - it's never a clear-cut Needs vs BPA situation anyway - the BPA taken is always going to fulfill a perceived need to some degree - even with the McGahee situation in Buffalo - they got an upgrade at RB.

 

[Da 'Fins]

Good post!
However I do disagree that we cant trade down. We wont get the "equal value" according to the chart but this year the chart must be tossed out the window. The "value" at the top is lower and the "value" later is higher. Therefore we could trade down a few spots and pick up a third or so and I would not cry about that. Especially is we only drop a few spots and let others pick players we would pass on anyway like WRs and QBs etc.

I agree - and wasn't saying we can't trade down - but that trading down may be more difficult this year than in years past. Thanks.

 

[thepoolboy]

The talent in the draft is not weak it just hasn't been deciphered yet. We haven't had the combine or pro day workouts yet. At this stage in 1999, the Edge was a late 1st to an early 2nd pick and in 2001, LT was an early 2nd. So many things can change from now until the draft. Being that Cleveland released Garcia, they may become logical trading partners if they are indeed targeting a QB.

 

[Da 'Fins]

The talent in the draft is not weak it just hasn't been deciphered yet. We haven't had the combine or pro day workouts yet. At this stage in 1999, the Edge was a late 1st to an early 2nd pick and in 2001, LT was an early 2nd. So many things can change from now until the draft. Being that Cleveland released Garcia, they may become logical trading partners if they are indeed targeting a QB.

This is true. And, I mention that things may change a bit between now and the draft. However, I've heard several experienced draftnicks note that they don't see as many clear cut choices. I'm not saying the talent at the top is weak, per se, but that there isn't a head-and-shoulders choice in the 2nd slot - from a talent position. At least at this point. It may emerge eventually.

But, even if, for example, we think Benson is the top pick, I can see us trading down and settling for Brown or Cadillac, and picking up another pick in round 2. I also think that the draft is a fairly deep draft in rounds 2-3. In such cases, if Saban thinks that's true, he would likely want more than just two picks in the first day. Hardly the way to go in building a team.

 

[CrunchTime]

While it may not be a good year to trade down compared to others I do think we can get good value if we accept future high draft picks as part of any deal.There are several teams who are contending for SBs who would be willing to give up future high picks for a chance at a SB this year.

There are a lot of good draftniks on this MB but most of them dont consider future draft picks as part of any deal.Its a great way to begin the draft pick accumulation process

 

[phinman1]

Wait until after the combine before stating that the second pick isn't all that attractive. One of the QB's may blow up, or somebody like Williams or Edwards. That's the job of the combine, to create overly hyped players, this year will be no exception. Somebody will just to have to have this guy or that guy. If we do stay at number two, I hope we get Williams.