Hoops scoops...reading the tea leaves day 1 draft predictions...

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by hoops, Apr 14, 2013.

  1. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Day one predictions as we close in to 10 days to the nfl draft...

    if kc doesn't go OT it's dt star lotuleilia...

    the raiders are locked In on sharif Floyd...

    joeckel fisher and lane Johnson will all come off the board in the top 5 picks...

    if Miami stays at #12 the pick will be cornerback Xavier Rhodes...

    Barkevious mingo will be a top 10 pick...

    if Tampa doesn't acquire revis and keeps the #13 pick they will select Tyler eifert te...

    if the jets do acquire the #13 pick in a revis trade they will select mingo if he is there at # 9 they will use the #13 on OT dj fluker...

    if tavon Austin gets to #16 the rams will take him if he's gone the pick will be safety Kenny vacarro...

    qb geno smith will be a top 10 pick...

    4 dts will come off in the top 20 picks...star sharif Floyd Richardson and Sylvester Williams...

    san Fran will package picks to move up in rd #1 for a safety...they will use the other 1st rounder on te zach ertz...

    wr Robert woods will be a 1st round pick...

    no rb will be selected in rd #1...

    jarvis jones will go no earlier than pick #17 Pittsburgh...

    damontre Moore will fall out of rd #1...

    jonathon cooper will be the first guard off the board...

    ezekial ansah will fall out of the top 10...

    bjoern Werner will fall out of the top 20...

    wr Patterson will fall out of the top 20...the only wr in the top 20 will be tavon Austin...

    someone will trade up for qb Matt Barkley in the top 25 picks...

    Chance warmack will be a San Diego charger pick #11...

    de Cornelius carradines even off an acl will be the first flo st de to come off the board...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 14, 2013
  2. DUB

    DUB Finheaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I think you are right on a good number of those predictions. I don't think Werner slides that far though.
     
  3. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    I really hoped you wouldnt pair us with Rhodes.... not a fan of that pick at all.
     
  4. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    so 3 LT would go off the board in first five. we must be crazy to want one of those guys.
     
  5. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    don't agree with:

    If the Dolphins don't trade up for one of the tackles or Dee Milliner, I think the pick comes down to Rhodes, Desmond Trufant or Jon Cooper.

    Ansah should fall out of the top ten because he isn't worth a top 10 pick.

    I've seen talk of Damontre Moore falling out of round 2 as well.
     
  6. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    So which in your opinion is the odd team out? I'm assuming Philly, since they have no track record to draw on.

    Let's assume for a minute Philly doesn't take Geno Smith. Which team from 6-10 is the one that takes him? Outside of the Browns I don't see a particularly likely choice.

    Interesting you don't have anything to say about Dion Jordan, and that although you think Lotulelei is in consideration for #1 you don't consider him a top 10 or 5 or whatever lock. I think perhaps you realized you were locking in too many variables.

    For me the focus of the draft has gone away from figuring out the top 11 to figuring out the top 5, since I consider a trade up with the Browns the most likely thing to happen on the 25th. It's contingent on Johnson or Milliner being there, or so I'm told, with the key to that puzzle really lying with Philly and whether they covet Johnson. If they do, then the Lions (according to my Lions friend) are likely to take Milliner. But the Lions apparently prefer Johnson. So if Philly takes Geno Smith or Dion Jordan or whomever, then that allows the Lions to take Johnson, we trade up for Milliner, and then TheWalrus sings a happy tune that we didn't do something dumb in trading up for an OT.
     
  7. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Sylvester Williams is going higher than people think. Dallas at #18 is very possible...

    if ansah gets by the cards at #7 he is falling out of the top 10 and still on the board at 12

    damontre Moore still on the board in the 3rd would not surprise me at all
     
  8. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Yes Philly is the one in the top 5 that is not going OT. Star either goes to kc or falls into the bottom half of the top 10. I am having a hard time figuring out which team will take geno smith in the top 10 but zero doubt in my mind it will happen. Detroit is going OT. Dee milliner will still be on the board at #6
     
  9. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    if kc doesn't go OT it's dt star lotuleilia...Never thought about them NOT going OT. If they don't you can bet Jeff will be working the phones to move up. Would make the 25th an interesting night.

    the raiders are locked In on sharif Floyd...I am not sure this is true IF, IF, IF Oakland can bail out and get more picks. Floyd is not a "make or break" player for them. So, I AGREE they will take him at 3 if they are stuck, but would cherish the thought of snagging the Palmer #2 back.

    joeckel fisher and lane Johnson will all come off the board in the top 5 picks...1. Joeckel, 2. Jordan, 3. Floyd, 4. Lotulelel 5. Fisher, 6. Milliner 7. Johnson...so, disagree

    if Miami stays at #12 the pick will be cornerback Xavier Rhodes...I cannot say how much I believe the pick WILL NOT be Rhodes nor Cooper or Warmack. Rhodes is not a fit and I think the Grimes signing is a clear indicator that Ireland can many other direction than CB.

    Barkevious mingo will be a top 10 pick...Maybe to the Jets and it will be the biggest bust of the draft

    if Tampa doesn't acquire revis and keeps the #13 pick they will select Tyler eifert te...DISAGREE, the pick will be Rhodes

    if the jets do acquire the #13 pick in a revis trade they will select mingo if he is there at # 9 they will use the #13 on OT dj fluker...DISAGREE. The Jets have do something sexy and help their QB.

    if tavon Austin gets to #16 the rams will take him if he's gone the pick will be safety Kenny vacarro...AGREE, but Austin does not make it to 16.

    qb geno smith will be a top 10 pick...DISAGREE

    4 dts will come off in the top 20 picks...star sharif Floyd Richardson and Sylvester Williams...I say three...Williams just misses top 20

    san Fran will package picks to move up in rd #1 for a safety...they will use the other 1st rounder on te zach ertz...Bold take, but you are correct that they will package picks because all of those picks will not make the team.

    wr Robert woods will be a 1st round pick...Disagree...albeit slightly....early 2

    no rb will be selected in rd #1...Slam Dunk Agree

    jarvis jones will go no earlier than pick #17 Pittsburgh...AGREE

    damontre Moore will fall out of rd #1...VERY MUCH AGREE

    jonathon cooper will be the first guard off the board...VERY MUCH AGREE

    ezekial ansah will fall out of the top 10...STRONGLY DISAGREE

    bjoern Werner will fall out of the top 20...AGREE

    wr Patterson will fall out of the top 20...the only wr in the top 20 will be tavon Austin...AGREE

    someone will trade up for qb Matt Barkley in the top 25 picks...AGREE

    Chance warmack will be a San Diego charger pick #11...AGREE

    de Cornelius carradines even off an acl will be the first flo st de to come off the board....AGREE
     
  10. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    If you are having a hard time with it why are you so certain?

    Here's what I think. Despite all the rumors that Oakland covets Floyd... Lotulelei actually goes there and it's Floyd who falls down the board somewhat, perhaps even past Richardson. To be honest though I'm not sure the three OTs go in the top five. Jacksonville in particular could go Jordan or Milliner. They already have Eugene Monroe and their new head coach was Seattle's DC. I'm also not sure on the order of the OTs. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Joeckel be the last one off the board.

    If Milliner is on the board @ 6 and all of the OTs are gone I fully expect us to trade up for him. Would be shocked if we didn't, frankly. Then later in round one we'd trade up (which is going to be made more difficult with teams trading back into the 1st for QBs) for Menelik Watson. If we take an OT @ 6 then I'm not sure what will happen on a trade up of if we even trade up at that point.
     
  11. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    The Fins are not trading up for Milliner. No way.
     
  12. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    Are you a wizard?
     
  13. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Pretty simple on the geno smith front. I knew after I watched him spin it at the combine and more importantly run in the 4.5's that he was going top 10. Not to mention too many teams that need Qbs up there...

    Jax at #2 is tough but I lean Eric fisher there...it's a tough team to read...

    Philly a hard read. think with the young olbs they have it won't be Jordan...they could trade out as well to a team coming up for an OT or geno smith..
     
  14. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    Guess not because I have no idea what your confusing comment means.
     
  15. tylerdolphin

    tylerdolphin More Smug than Birthday Dog Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Why would we not? CB is just as big of a hole on this team as OT and is a more valuable position.
     
  16. drumzan

    drumzan Active Member

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    - Philly will draft Geno Smith
    - Buffalo will draft Matt Barkley
    - Pittsburgh will draft Jarvis Jones
    - Patriots will draft Justin Hunter
     
  17. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    I could see all of that. I was very tempted to say barkleys a top 10 pick but I wonder about his arm in those buffalo winds. They just let go fitz who had a similar arm. I think barkleys a wco qb
     
  18. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    Most of the teams in the top 10 that need a QB have solidified that position. KC, Arizona, Buffalo and Oakland all signed or traded for quarterbacks. That's not a coincidence. They know it's a weak group, probably the weakest since 2007. If Philly doesn't take Smith who does?

    Agreed. The whole draft is hard to read. The only stupid thing one can do is make definitive statements about what this team or that team is doing. It's all just speculation. My understanding is that even Jeff Ireland's staff doesn't know exactly what his plans are. If they did then I would know (not that I would say :lol:). But they're just guessing, too. A few weeks back they were guessing Austin. Now they're guessing Milliner or Johnson.

    Jacksonville could go a few different ways and it wouldn't shock me at all. They need a corner. They could even take Smith. I think their GM just came out and said they narrowed their decision making on #2 by deciding on the direction they want their franchise to go. It's easy to read too much into that but that's not the kind of comment that says "offensive lineman" to me.

    Maybe. But Chip Kelly coached Jordan. That's always a factor. They're a reasonable bet to take Milliner as well, after letting their top three corners leave town.

    That would probably be the worst scenario from this FO's perspective. Milliner goes @ 4. Johnson goes 5. Now there's nobody they want to trade up for. That could very well lead to Rhodes being the pick @ 12.

    Then again, a trade up to #4 isn't out of the question, either. I heard a rumor that would indicate we're at least exploring it (unlike the Oakland rumor, which came from Oakland).
     
  19. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Sorry but if it is not a trade up for an OT I totally believe that is where we are headed at #12
     
  20. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    I do not believe that any of those teams who brought in vets other than Oakland are out on qb in the top 10 automatically. Not Arizona not buffalo not even the New York jets if they can pawn off Sanchez. Even Cleveland at #6 could do something there. The vet signings and incumbents given the low cap hits on these rookie qbs tells me don't rule any of em auto out
     
  21. drumzan

    drumzan Active Member

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    Those are the only 4 I have any confidence in. Haha.
     
  22. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Well a 1st round pick on a wr is way out of belichicks character. Frankly can't remember him doing it in new england
     
  23. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    I disagree pretty strongly. Especially with including the Jets in that list because the condition you've made for them is self evidently impossible to satisfy.
     
  24. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    The jets are trying to pawn Sanchez in the revis deal with Tampa. Want Tampa to take on his salary. Basically a dump. Part of what is holding up the negotiations for revis
     
  25. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    Yeah, no kidding. Does anyone expect Tampa to do that, though?
     
  26. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Well the word seems to be they can cut him if they take him on. I'm just not sure if they will take an $8 mil hit if they do. I heard the jets will eat $9 mil if they trade him.

    I also hear josh freeman has not won over schiano
     
  27. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    I don't think I've ever heard of a trade where a team took on a troubled asset just to help the trading team out financially. Not ever. Happens all the time in other sports without hard salary caps, but not football.

    Wouldn't shock me that Freeman hasn't won over Schiano. Not a bit. But what does Sanchez have to do with that? Am I supposed to buy he likes him?

    It's not a credible theory, imo. Just isn't. It's possible, you know... anything's possible. But not really worth discussing. If you're using that to bolster the argument that the Jets are in the Geno Smith sweepstakes that's pretty weak sauce.
     
  28. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    What? It is weak sauce to say that if the jets are able to lose Sanchez as a throw in for revis who they really really covet that they very well could be in the qb market with a top 10 pick? No it's not. I'd say it is unlikely they can dump him on someone but if they are hell bent on landing revis it is possible.

    If you disagree with me on what jax at #2 is gonna do or Philly at #4 I get it. They are the toughest reads in the top 7 for sure. I'm not sure I go along with your Philly and geno smith thing nor any Miami is considering trading up for milliner theories either...
     
  29. steviey013

    steviey013 A True Fan

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    If Ziggy Ansah is still there at 12 - Draft him!!!
     
  30. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    By the way has Miami ever even met with dee milliner? If we have I sure haven't heard about it. And I would put the odds Ireland trades up say to pick 6 for a guy they never have spent time with at nil. Would seem to be the exact opposite of the way he does things to me. I know we have met with Rhodes lane Johnson and tavon Austin
     
  31. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yep. Milliner was in Davie on April 1st. Miami used one of its thirty pre-draft visits to bring him in.
     
  32. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Hmmm well that is interesting then. I must have overlooked it.
     
  33. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Take this FWIW, but I read on draft insider that Miami would not bring it's first round selection in for a visit. Personally, I think there's a fairly good chance they trade up for Milliner. I think most likely is they trade up for Johnson, followed by Milliner, followed by actually making the selection at #12. Outside chance they go a little higher for Eric Fisher. IMO.
     
  34. TheWalrus

    TheWalrus 1/7/14 Finheaven VIP

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    This.
     
  35. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Well not bringing em in for a visit to the facility is one thing. Not meeting with them period another...zero doubt in my mind the latter means not in consideration.

    Agreed on the really wanting to trade up and the top target is lane Johnson. I guess milliner could be plan b. don't believe they want to get up there for fisher though if they can get Johnson instead.
     
  36. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    The one thing that kind of stands out to me is I haven't heard about or seen much evidence of Miami being interested in edge pass rush prospects. Maybe the plan is more about Vernon and a vet after the draft.

    I have seen a lot of corner tight end and safety interest. And some slot wr and bigger targets at wr interest along with ot...some mike backer stuff as well
     
  37. Gonzo

    Gonzo Widerstand Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Teams picking in the top 5 are usually known for making great personnel decisions. We should definitely try to emulate them. Oh, wait, we did that a Long time ago.
     
  38. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Well at least I like all 3 of those guys...
     
  39. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yeah, other than pro days, I haven't heard or read a lot about any interest in the defensive ends. Maybe that is information the Dolphins are not allowing to leak out to the media. I know Miami was at the FSU pro day, but IIRC they sent OL coach Jim Turner (to workout Meneik Watson) and the QB coach.

    One thing they have been doing is showing interest in defensive tackles. Shledon Richardson visited last week, Star Lotulelei is visiting tomorrow. They also worked Jesse Williams out at the Alabama pro day.
     
  40. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    I completely agree. That pick would make me sick. I hate to pick guys in the first round who I watched throughout their careers, and never thought they would slot that high. That has exponentially more weight to me than anything they did at the combine, or individual workouts, or how they are rated in comparison to other players at their position.

    I want someone who wowed me in college. Rhodes was just another player at Florida State far too often. I certainly wasn't afraid of the Canes exploring his area.

    The problem with a pick like that is the ceiling is not as high as it appears. Rhodes might be picked 12th but there's more chance he'll play like a 2nd or 3rd rounder than a top 5 pick. The likelihood of error is down, not up. That's the way I look at it. Same argument I used with Ronnie Brown. Who the hell cared how he was rated in the spring? He was always second banana at Auburn and nobody expected him to be taken high first round, during the years he was actually playing. He was invented into the top handful of picks in the final months.
     
  41. Hayden Fox

    Hayden Fox Love Creating Turnovers Donator

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    I think the pick at 12 will be Eifert, Austin or Vaccaro...maybe Werner. "Safe" pick for Jeff too.
     
  42. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    My issue isnt twelve being too high for Rhodes I think the value is fine but I dont ike the fit.

    Rhodes isnt a good fit for our scheme, like Smith - who was a good player but a bad fit. Beyond that there is so much value in the later rounds with the likes of Slay, Poyer, Mathieu etc. No need to go cb in round one in my eyes.
     
  43. normaniii

    normaniii A True Fan

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    I think theres a chance Cleveland take Geno Smith.

    Chudzinski worked wonders with Cam Newton and he and Turner would want a young QB to work with to start there time in Cleveland.

    ---------- Post added at 11:59 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:57 AM ----------

    I agree. I also like Jamar Taylor, Logan Ryan & Wreh Wilson. I would def take 2 CB's from this draft, but 100% not in 1st round.
     
  44. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    for the record i'm with you...i don't like it either...
     
  45. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i think they'd be on star if he fell to them...the biggest surprise for me with that top pick would be richardson given his character...that one will flat out shock me...i'm really struggling with jax and phillys picks...star could be in play with both those teams as well...ticks me off i don't have a bead on em...this years tougher than the past

    i know dion jordan won't get past arizona at #7 if the ots are gone...could easily go all the way at #2 as well...
     
  46. dolphinheel

    dolphinheel A True Fan

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    BIC "Butts in Chairs" FACTOR

    Agree HF. I think the biggest factor for draft is 1. Playmaker, and all 3 fit that profile, 2. Position of need, again all 3 fit that, but last, and don't underestimate this one, 3. The BIC factor--Butts in Chairs. I think the front office realizes with the bond referendum and to get people back in the stadium they need another dynamic offensive playmaker for the #1 pick. If you consider the BIC factor I think Austin first, then Eifert. All bets are off if one of these others fall to us--Floyd or Star, or one of the 3 big OTs.

    2a/2b Gio Bernard and best CB left on board
    3a/3b BPA--DE, OT, OG, TE, CB
     
  47. normaniii

    normaniii A True Fan

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    totally agree about Jordan. I predict 3 OT in top 4 & Geno Smith to Cleveland.
     
  48. silverfin

    silverfin FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I think the Jaguars will take Dion Jordan, personally. I see Joeckel coming off first, followed by Jordan and then Floyd to Oakland. Philly is where it gets interesting. I think they'll be picking between DT with Star or QB with Geno. Don't buy the OT to Philly talk, athough Milliner could be an option there. Then I have Fisher to Detroit to round out the top five, leaving at minimum Lane Johnson on the board at #6 for the Dolphins to make that trade up. Thats pretty much how I see it right now. Of course, one or two trades in the top 5 and this whole thing gets blown up.
     
  49. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    by the way i did change my mind on one of my predictions this morning...i believe san fran will use it's second 1st round pick on dt jesse williams over te zach ertz if they have a choice...should have though about that prior to posting it...
     
  50. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    hard to argue with that...a top ot getting to #6 largely depends on what jax does at #2...if they do not go ot miami can feel comfortable one makes it to clevelands pick...
     

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