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How to draft!

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normaniii

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Look at 1st round and identify the position that will both have value and improve a need.


At #19 the 2 positions of value are WR (Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham) & LB (CJ Mosley, Ryan Shazier).

IMO LB is both better value and need.


Thereafter I would identify players who fit current scheme and have dropped due to; position depth, poor combine, recent injury or size, height, length issues. Certain players with character issues such as Kelvin Benjamin, Colt Lyerla, Jeremy Hill, Seantrel Henderson etc would be off my board.


Players I like 2nd round on are:-
Marqise Lee WR, Jason Verrett CB, Jace Amaro TE, Cyrus Koundijio OT, Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE, Antonio Richardson OT, Travis Swanson C, Jarvis Landry WR, Jack Mewhort OT, Anthony Johnson DT, Devonta Freeman RB, Daniel McCullers DT, Craig Loston S, Anthony Steen OG, James Hurst OT, Caraun Reid DT, Antone Exum CB, James Wilder Jr RB, Ryan Carrethers DT, Brandon Linder OG, Marion Grice RB, Bennett Jackson CB, Brett Smith QB.


IMO, San Diego drafted like this last year. Their biggest need and a position of strength last year was OT. They drafted DJ Fluker. In 2nd they snagged Manti Teo and Keenan Allen with 3rd, who both dropped due to various issues but no charachter concerns. That is 3 starters out of 6 picks.


This is how to draft!
 
normaniii said:
Look at 1st round and identify the position that will both have value and improve a need.


At #19 the 2 positions of value are WR (Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham) & LB (CJ Mosley, Ryan Shazier).

IMO LB is both better value and need.


Thereafter I would identify players who fit current scheme and have dropped due to; position depth, poor combine, recent injury or size, height, length issues. Certain players with character issues such as Kelvin Benjamin, Colt Lyerla, Jeremy Hill, Seantrel Henderson etc would be off my board.


Players I like 2nd round on are:-
Marqise Lee WR, Jason Verrett CB, Jace Amaro TE, Cyrus Koundijio OT, Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE, Antonio Richardson OT, Travis Swanson C, Jarvis Landry WR, Jack Mewhort OT, Anthony Johnson DT, Devonta Freeman RB, Daniel McCullers DT, Craig Loston S, Anthony Steen OG, James Hurst OT, Caraun Reid DT, Antone Exum CB, James Wilder Jr RB, Ryan Carrethers DT, Brandon Linder OG, Marion Grice RB, Bennett Jackson CB, Brett Smith QB.


IMO, San Diego drafted like this last year. Their biggest need and a position of strength last year was OT. They drafted DJ Fluker. In 2nd they snagged Manti Teo and Keenan Allen with 3rd, who both dropped due to various issues but no charachter concerns. That is 3 starters out of 6 picks.


This is how to draft!
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I'm impressed by your thoroughness normanii. Appreciate your explanation.
A couple of basic questions for you:
(1) Why not draft the best O-lineman available at #19 - Zach Martin or Xavier Su'a-Filo. Either can help make a big difference. XSF looks a very likely stud - also high character, future team leader. Very safe pick.
(2) The WR who impresses the hell out of me is Allen Robinson. At 6'2" 225 lbs and excellent hands, great route runner - he seems to offer a lot bigger size than Odell Beckham, Marquise Lee and Brandin Cooks (all fast and pretty small). He played well for Penn State without a great QB. Why don't you consider him in the mix of the top level WRs? I think that he's predicted to go in 2nd round.
 
I like Sua-Filo, but IMO Mosley is the better player and if not for the LB position being undervalued, would be projected far higher.

Again I like Allen Robinson, but I feel Kouandijio was a Top 15 pick before combine and injury scares. Reminds me a lot of what happened to Keenan Allen last year, both high end first round projections who have fallen.

Kouandijio is considered a better prospect that Fluker who went 11th last year. IMO he reminds me of Menelik Watson, but with far more upside and potential. Watson played well before injury last year.

It's not I don't like these players you mention. I just feel Ozzie Newsome has made a killing in draft year on year out, drafting value on players who have fallen for one reason or other and Chargers GM is trying to do same. He also makes a killing on compensatory picks but that's another story.
 
If you can get Shazier at 19, A+. Mosley would be more like a B-/C+ for me.

At 50, I'm either looking for one of the top 5 CB's to fall (Gilbert won't, Dennard likely won't, Roby might, Verrett might, and Fuller likely won't), one of Ward or Bucannon (either would be my preferred option in RD 2), or I'd be looking which WR's are on the board. If you're looking at Matthews, Robinson, Moncrief, or even a guy like Latimer, you're talking big, physical, athletic WR's - guys who can win anywhere on the field. Beyond that, I'm looking to either secure the RT position, or I'm looking at Jeremy Hill or Carlos Hyde.
 
I like Shazier a lot, but feel Mosley is a step above.

I like the idea of targeting WR and CB in this draft as I feel good players will fall due to great depth
 
I don't get the Shazier adoration, personally. Player who is good at just about everything but not special at anything. Physically he looks like he will come up short in the pros. His amazing athleticism in shorts doesn't pop out at you in pads. Gets brushed off tackles where he doesn't take the opponent square. He doesnt make many plays that shift game momentum or force OCs to change their plans. I see a very solid starter but i don't see an elite player like the way David, Alonso or Keuchly jumped out at me.

No GM will get fired for taking Shazier, but I doubt any of them will be remembered for the pick either.
 
Fin Thirteen said:
I don't get the Shazier adoration, personally. Player who is good at just about everything but not special at anything. Physically he looks like he will come up short in the pros. His amazing athleticism in shorts doesn't pop out at you in pads. Gets brushed off tackles where he doesn't take the opponent square. He doesnt make many plays that shift game momentum or force OCs to change their plans. I see a very solid starter but i don't see an elite player like the way David, Alonso or Keuchly jumped out at me.

No GM will get fired for taking Shazier, but I doubt any of them will be remembered for the pick either.
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I don't agree with this assessment. When you talk about impact plays, he had 7 sacks, 23.5 TFL, 4 FF's, and 102 solo tackles. He also destroyed a blocker on his way to blocking a punt at a critical part of the Michigan State game. During Luke Kuechly's junior season, he also had 102 solo tackles, but he had 12 TFL (a little more than half), 0 sacks, and 0 FF's - though he did have 3 INT's. Shazier also had one more pass defensed (4 to 3). Shazier's production didn't come out of nowhere. He had an outstanding sophomore season and clearly Ohio State's best front-7 player. Teams absolutely put in game plans designed to deal with Shazier. He faced more second-level blockers, and even double teams, than is common. So his season is even more impressive. I don't understand how 23.5 TFL from a 4-3 WLB is anything but special.

You don't get athletes at the LB position like Shazier in every draft, and you don't get LB's as productive as Shazier in every draft.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
I don't agree with this assessment. When you talk about impact plays, he had 7 sacks, 23.5 TFL, 4 FF's, and 102 solo tackles. He also destroyed a blocker on his way to blocking a punt at a critical part of the Michigan State game. During Luke Kuechly's junior season, he also had 102 solo tackles, but he had 12 TFL (a little more than half), 0 sacks, and 0 FF's - though he did have 3 INT's. Shazier also had one more pass defensed (4 to 3). Shazier's production didn't come out of nowhere. He had an outstanding sophomore season and clearly Ohio State's best front-7 player. Teams absolutely put in game plans designed to deal with Shazier. He faced more second-level blockers, and even double teams, than is common. So his season is even more impressive. I don't understand how 23.5 TFL from a 4-3 WLB is anything but special.

You don't get athletes at the LB position like Shazier in every draft, and you don't get LB's as productive as Shazier in every draft.
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Don't get me wrong, I love Shazier, but like Thirteen said he has some flaws that are going to keep him from becoming elite like David, Kuechly, Alonso, etc. When you go and watch film of the three mentioned you saw them regularly take over games, Shazier maybe has 3 or 4 good plays a game.

Just take this as an example as they both compare plus they played the same team, in different years though.

[video=youtube;5CYjR4E2-kk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CYjR4E2-kk[/video]

David played a flawless game by shedding blockers, superb tackling, etc.

[video=youtube;Iep9UmzmT7s]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iep9UmzmT7s[/video]

Now here's Shazier a year later. Notice anything different?
 
You're comparing a game from Shazier's sophomore season (his season as a full-time starter at LB) against a game from David's senior season - David's best game from his senior season (6 more solo tackles than his next highest total, and his second highest TFL total).

Also, when you're talking about guys like David, Alonso, and Kuechly taking over games, I just don't know where you're getting that.

During his senior season, David had 3 games with 2 or more TFL, and he had six games without a TFL. During his sophomore season, Shazier had six games with 2 or more TFL and three games without a TFL. Again, we're talking about his first season as a full-time starting LB.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to compare a senior to a true sophomore coming back for his junior season, but even so, Shazier made more plays over the course of his sophomore season than David did his senior season. Shazier's junior season was - of course - even better.
 
normaniii said:
I like Sua-Filo, but IMO Mosley is the better player and if not for the LB position being undervalued, would be projected far higher.

Again I like Allen Robinson, but I feel Kouandijio was a Top 15 pick before combine and injury scares. Reminds me a lot of what happened to Keenan Allen last year, both high end first round projections who have fallen.

Kouandijio is considered a better prospect that Fluker who went 11th last year. IMO he reminds me of Menelik Watson, but with far more upside and potential. Watson played well before injury last year.

It's not I don't like these players you mention. I just feel Ozzie Newsome has made a killing in draft year on year out, drafting value on players who have fallen for one reason or other and Chargers GM is trying to do same. He also makes a killing on compensatory picks but that's another story.
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Your thread should be titled "How to Draft IF you agree with normanii's talent evaluation of the 2014 NFL draft"........because many actual evaluators with actual experience don't agree with you....nor do I.

There are 4 offensive tackles that are worthy of pick 19 by most experienced talent evaluators which would fill our biggest position of need. WR would be a luxury pick and not filling any hole. If and only if one these 4 tackles is not present at pick 19 should we consider another position.

I believe we will either have a shot at Zack Martin, and if not Mosely, Shazier, Pryor will probably be there.

I would also be fine with drafting the best guard in the draft in Xavier sua Filo who you can plug right in for the next 10 years.

Using your philosophy we could end up with another porous O-line in 2014 and another 50+ sack season for Ryan Tannehill which he might not survive this time.
 
I watched quite a bit of Shazier this year. Dude is a player, but he's a bit wreckless at times (see the Buffalo and Iowa games). He will over run plays and can be taken out from time to time. That being said, he's the type of LB you need for Coyle's defense. You need a kid that's willing to work hard to improve, and has the speed to go sideline to sideline.

The biggest thing though with the draft is understanding fit. While I don't necessarily want to draft Kouandijio, now that we don't have to rely on him as a LT I'm more inclined to give him a look BUT he's not really on my short list. After Martin and Lewan, the OL I'm looking at are Joel Bitonio, Weston Richburg ,Xavier Su’a-Filo, Michael Schofield, Gabe Ikard (later in the draft), Billy Turner, Jack Mewhort, JaWuan James, Wesley Johnson,James Hurst, Matt Patchan, ect. More athletic guys that can move.

WR wise I look at tall WRs that can give us a jump ball threat. Unless it's somebody like Brandin Cooks or Paul Richardson that give you a deep threat and return dynamic, I don't even look at a WR that isn't going to win 50-50 balls.
 
I like Joel Bitonio if he's still there in round two.

Zach Martin in round 1....Joel Botonio round two and your O-line is pretty much set.

I see both those guys as instant starters....the question left is The other guard position which S. Smith, Dallas Thomas etal can compete for.
 
BlueFin said:
Your thread should be titled "How to Draft IF you agree with normanii's talent evaluation of the 2014 NFL draft"........because many actual evaluators with actual experience don't agree with you....nor do I.

There are 4 offensive tackles that are worthy of pick 19 by most experienced talent evaluators which would fill our biggest position of need. WR would be a luxury pick and not filling any hole. If and only if one these 4 tackles is not present at pick 19 should we consider another position.

I believe we will either have a shot at Zack Martin, and if not Mosely, Shazier, Pryor will probably be there.

I would also be fine with drafting the best guard in the draft in Xavier sua Filo who you can plug right in for the next 10 years.

Using your philosophy we could end up with another porous O-line in 2014 and another 50+ sack season for Ryan Tannehill which he might not survive this time.
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This thread is titled, 'how to draft' not 'how to fill need'. IMO we should have identified best positions in draft then handled FA accordingly. In the first round the highest graded players who will be available at 19 are WR's, LB and possibly DT. IMO, the position that would be most upgraded out if these 3 are LB. Thereafter, you take best value and due to depth, you would get great value at OT and WR later in draft.
 
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