We also can use the Pythagorean expectation to project games over a half-season, although it's more subject to sheer variance over a smaller sample, in the same way that a baseball player is more likely to hit .400 over a week than he would over a season. Teams that have outperformed their Pythagorean expectation in the first half of the season, all else being equal, would be likely to decline during the second half. Here are the five biggest overachievers from the first half of the season:
The 2016 Dolphins also grossly outperformed their point differential, winning 10 games despite being outscored by 17 points. The 2017 team has looked truly awful for stretches and pulled out some fortuitous narrow victories. The Dolphins beat the Chargers in Week 2 when they successfully iced a 44-yard
Younghoe Koo field goal try. They got to face
Matt Cassel as opposed to
Marcus Mariota and won on a fumble return against the Titans. Even the games without luck have been a struggle: a late interception of
Matt Ryan kept their game against the Falcons from heading to overtime, and it took a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Jets. Miami is likely to improve on offense, but it's not a good football team by any stretch of the imagination.