Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4 | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Intangibles or Luck? | The 2017 Dolphins Should be 2-4

Is it intangibles or luck?

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    49
  • Poll closed .
point is -- these days -- suck is a big commodity in the N - F - L.
 
BlueFin said:
Part of it is the culture a coach breeds by cutting players who don't give 110%....instilling a never quit attitude...that is the key.

Also there is a conservative style of play calling Gase goes too in these games which reduces losses by mistakes, turnovers and allows his defense to make game winning plays.

But luck?....please....nobody gets lucky at that percentage rate....period.
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So far that's translated to the third-worst score margin at halftime in the league during Gase's tenure. The Dolphins during Gase's tenure have been behind by an average of 4.5 points per game at halftime. The league average during that period is zero, and for comparison's sake, New England has led the league during that period, by being ahead at halftime by an average of 7.6 points per game.

And that's important, because between 2004 and 2017, the correlation between halftime score margin and win percentage in the NFL is 0.94. In other words, halftime score margin has predicted 88% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL since 2004, leaving only 12% of the variation in win percentage in the league accounted for by other factors. The greater your lead at halftime, the more likely you are to win, and that relationship is very strong.

So, the concern about whether this run of intangibles and/or luck will continue is certainly a legitimate one. During Gase's tenure the Dolphins have been bucking the odds in several major ways.
 
To all Dolphin fans who rub your rabbits' feet, pray and cross your fingers for good luck to keep the winning run continue tonight. I'm still amazed that so many appear to embrace this concept and genuinely believe it is the reason the team is 4 - 2.
But 5 - 2 sounds better.
 
I think 3-3 is the real record. The Chargers win was luck because Koo should have made that kick. The others were well earned victories
 
Digital said:
Here's the thing. The more data points we have about Gase winning one-score games, the harder it is to make the argument that it's luck. I mean, one can make the argument, but it starts to sound like someone denying that the earth is round.

I'm sure Gase will lose some close games, it's inevitable. But you can't look at his record in those and call it pure luck. Clearly he's doing some things that are increasing his odds ... even if the masses don't realize what is causing it or why it has that effect.

I loved those old commercials that featured the coaches at press conferences after losses just ranting. They'd say things like "You are what your record says you are!" or "You play to win the game!" or my favorite one, which the Jet's fans are saying today "Playoffs ... playoffs!?!?!?" Good stuff.
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You can't possibly say that Gase has powers that make opposing kickers miss.


...or does he? That's what I meant when I posted that we're magic. Maybe he does and magic is real. That would be really cool
 
where's th'fish said:
You can't possibly say that Gase has powers that make opposing kickers miss.


...or does he? That's what I meant when I posted that we're magic. Maybe he does and magic is real. That would be really cool
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Like I said above, it's a little tough to believe that Gase possesses a coaching characteristic (i.e., winning close games late) that's nearly twice as good as Bill Belichick's. It's far easier to believe that he's been the recipient of good fortune over a smaller sample of games.
 
Um. maybe instead of focusing on the offense of our team, we should look at the old adage of... Defense wins ballgames, and we have some really good defensive players.
 
I think that truth lies somewhere in the middle. If you notice, in the table of worst DVOA for 4-2 teams, every team but the Lions improved the rest of the season and won at least 3 games. Several even made the playoffs.
 
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<O> said:
So far that's translated to the third-worst score margin at halftime in the league during Gase's tenure. The Dolphins during Gase's tenure have been behind by an average of 4.5 points per game at halftime. The league average during that period is zero, and for comparison's sake, New England has led the league during that period, by being ahead at halftime by an average of 7.6 points per game.

And that's important, because between 2004 and 2017, the correlation between halftime score margin and win percentage in the NFL is 0.94. In other words, halftime score margin has predicted 88% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL since 2004, leaving only 12% of the variation in win percentage in the league accounted for by other factors. The greater your lead at halftime, the more likely you are to win, and that relationship is very strong.

So, the concern about whether this run of intangibles and/or luck will continue is certainly a legitimate one. During Gase's tenure the Dolphins have been bucking the odds in several major ways.
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Disagree....luck is out of the question at this success rate....common sense.

We can debate if the conservative style needs to be loosened up a bit...but the results are clear...it produces close games that Gase's culture has them winning at a high rate.
 
Under Adam Gase this team has found ways to win. It's not always pretty, but somehow someway the team gets it done.

It makes me wonder what the team can do when there's more talent on the offensive line. That is the one glaring weakness.
 
BlueFin said:
Disagree....luck is out of the question at this success rate....common sense.

We can debate if the conservative style needs to be loosened up a bit...but the results are clear...it produces close games that Gase's culture has them winning at a high rate.
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Something uncanny is certainly going on, because during Gase's tenure the Dolphins have entered the fourth quarter down by an average of 2.7 points, and they've outscored their opponents during the fourth quarter by an average of only 1.5 points.
 
miamiron said:
If "intangibles" is Cody Parkey's middle name I'm going to
have to go with intangibles since he's won 3 out of 4 wins with his foot
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This right here! Garo won us a LOT of games too. If it turns out that Parkey = money, that's at least +1/2 game a season. At least.
 
You've convinced me. I'm on board with petitioning the league to forfeit our 4 Ws this year as we don't deserve them. We can explore the retro forfeit of several wins from last year.

We also need Gase to make a public apology for accepting the Ws. What an embarrassment to intelligent Miami fans everywhere who expect, and deserve dammit, high fantasy football points scoring, creative TD dances and utter domination of an opponent with the sweet gushing of talking heads extolling them on.
 
TheWozz said:
You've convinced me. I'm on board with petitioning the league to forfeit our 4 Ws this year as we don't deserve them. We can explore the retro forfeit of several wins from last year.

We also need Gase to make a public apology for accepting the Ws. What an embarrassment to intelligent Miami fans everywhere who expect, and deserve dammit, high fantasy football points scoring, creative TD dances and utter domination of an opponent with the sweet gushing of talking heads extolling them on.
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I agree. And while we're at it, the Patriots should forfeit their last two SB wins as well. I mean, it's only fair.
 
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