Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by NBP81, Nov 26, 2013.

  1. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    This is a follow up on shouright`s thread regarding the teams lack of rushing attempts. Got curious so I took a look at playoffs teams from the last 4 seasons(since 2009) and I wasn't really surprised of the results... The Fins are on pace to end the season with 336 rushing attempts. The team with the least rushing attempts to make the playoffs in the last four years are the 2011 Detroit Lions with 356. Out of all those playoff teams(48), only 9 made it with less than 400 attempts. Only 2 of those are from the AFC, the 2009 and 2010 Peyton Manning Colts.... NFC teams who made it with less than 400 carries: GB(395), DET(356), ATL(378), NO(380), PHI(384), SEA(385), ARI(365). Now for those who think what we're running is that famous GB offense, consider this, the lower amount of carries that team has put out since 2009 is 395 in 2011 and averages to 422 carries a season. So let me ask you this, WHY do these coaches, who have QBs such as Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady feel like they have to run the ball to have success as a football team. And more importantly, why do some fans think that Ryan Tannehill, in his second pro football season, should be able to do so when absolutely nobody has done it in the last four years?(Im pretty sure it goes much further than that, just too lazy to go further) Its not an excuse guys...
     
  2. rev kev

    rev kev THE DEFLATOR

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    Because ____________________ says so..., silly...
     
  3. mega-fin-love

    mega-fin-love Just trust me Donator

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    The only thing that I really think stands out from both threads as a definate is that teams that are one dimensional don't succeed often
     
  4. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    I actually think you'd have a shot if your unbalanced the other way around. Running too much is still better than not running enough...
     
  5. mega-fin-love

    mega-fin-love Just trust me Donator

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    Agreed...but if you want to win superbowls you need both...and a sick D
     
  6. Spiff

    Spiff Starter Finheaven VIP

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    The reason we're not running the football is because we can't do it. I'd rather have Tannehill complete a 4 yard pass than Lamar Miller running for negative yards. There's only one game where the running game looked decent and that was against the Bengals when we had six offensive linemen out there. Don't know why we're not doing this more, especially at the end of the season when weather is a factor and has a negative impact on the passing game.
     
  7. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    The Dolphins average 4.1 yards per carry, which is the league average. If the Dolphins "can't do it," then neither can half the teams in the league.
     
  8. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    The answer is simple: good QBs. If you have a good QB you can run more because defenses won't dare you to beat them in the air by loading up the box, they already know that is not a good gamble. If Aaron Rogers was our QB on Sunday him and Wallace would have hooked up for at least 4 or 5 TDs. Then with a 30-40 point lead you'll have a lot more flexibility to mix in more runs. Until Tannehill proves he can destroy 8 man fronts with his arm he won't get the same respect as those playoff contenders.
     
  9. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    There we are. The typical belief is that the quarterback needs a running game in order to perform better, but that works in reverse, as well.
     
  10. MadDog 88

    MadDog 88 TANNERECTION!!!! Donator

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    Who the QB is plays a significant role in balance and each individual teams definition of balance. The Dolphins with RT need an offense that has an equal mix of run and pass. The Jets with Geno Smith need an offense that features more running than throwing. The Saints can throw the ball more because they have the luxury of having Drew Brees but, they still have to have an effective ground game. Keep in mind these are just examples.

    Not a fan of the stats threads that have been getting posted lately but both this and Shou's thread on this topic are a good use of statistical data.
     
  11. Daytona Fin

    Daytona Fin Playoffs Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    Usually losing teams have low rushing attempts when they abandon the run because of playing catch up in the second half. It seems like that's our motto, even though we have led almost every game in the 4th quarter. What drives me crazy is when we get inside the 5 or 10 , it seems like we rarely run the ball.

    ---------- Post added at 07:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:41 AM ----------

    I am curious to know what that number is if you take tannehill's rushes out of that.
     
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  12. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth inside my DNA Finheaven VIP

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    Some, but in the end it still comes down to the o-line.....

    Just this season some of the better rushing team have some of the poorer QB's

    Jets, Bills, Oakland, Minnesota....all have good run games.

    Last season the Packers struggled due to their poor run game...

    For the Dolphins it is more of an issue with the line and the RB's....the threat of the pass will prevent teams from going with 8 in the box and most are not going 8 in the box on the Dolphins and are easily stopping them with a standard front or even in nickle formation.

    Again, I'm not discrediting the idea that having an elite QB opens up things (it obviously does), but the offensive line plays a even larger role.
     
  13. MartinTheSNAKE

    MartinTheSNAKE Seasoned Veteran Donator

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    but we can't do it consistently. Our average is inflated because Miller gets 1 yd. 1 yd. -3 yd. 3 yd 1 yd. -5 yd. 40 yard 1 yd 2 yd. 0 yd 0 yd 4 yd -1 yd 17 yd... Etc.
     
  14. royalshank

    royalshank Scout Team Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Agree. Anyone remember our dreadful rushing performance in the '84 SB? We lost because our 5 linemen couldn't run block against 3 down linemen - resulting in 8 total rushing yards for the game. Marino was reduced to 3-long all day and inspite of throwing for 322 our drives all stalled for FGs. We tried to run to get some balance going but our 5 couldn't block their 3 and they had 8 DBs in to try and contain our passing game. If Dan couldn't do it then, what makes us think RT can do it now?
     
  15. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    This is correct, because when you regress QB rating, net YPA, OL pass blocking (as measured by PFF), and OL run blocking (as measured by PFF) against yards per carry, the only significant predictor of yards per carry is OL run blocking.

    However, the Dolphins' OL run blocking is no worse than that of the average team in the league, which suggests they should be running at least as much, if not more (with a developmental QB), than the average team.
     
  16. nyashfan

    nyashfan For Earth Below

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    Shouright - I had another thought pertaining to the argument that the Dolphins' rushing yards per attempt places them in the middle of the pack, implying that their unwillingness to run the ball is not related to their lack of success.

    How important is the standard deviation of a team's yards per rush? The eyeball test leads one to believe that the Dolphins are among the least successful teams running the ball. It seems that the Dolphins' average yards per rush might be inflated by a handful of large gains offset by a plethora of below average gains.

    I would expect that teams whose rushing average is based on a lower standard deviation would have better records as it would demonstrate that they are running the ball more consistently. Now that I think about it more, skewness of yards per rush is probably a better statistic than standard deviation. Or perhaps the coefficient of variation which is average divided by standard deviation.

    I am assuming you do these calculations in Excel, so I'm sure it comes with a skewness function. Anyway, what I am trying to suggest is a means of discounting the impact of the handful of very large rushing gains.

    Curious to get your thoughts...


    Edit - just noticed that Egnew The Goat echoed the same sentiment.


     
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  17. HoneyB

    HoneyB A True Fan

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    That's exactly right. I know Sherman is trying to limit the 3 and outs. He doesn't want to kill drives. But the thing is this, you HAVE NO CHOICE. John Madden even used to say that when we had Marino and Shula, Shula went against his better judgement and when we struggled, allowed Marino to just air it out all the time. Madden said, you have to run it, period.

    It's the coaches job to make it work. It doesn't matter what the yards per carry is. You still need to run the ball. And if you think it's tough NOW, wait until the snow comes, and wait until postseason, because great teams will eat you alive if you can't run the ball.
     
  18. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    You're talking about run "success rate" here, which is found on this page (look for the column entitled "Run SR(%)"):

    http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php

    The Dolphins' percentage of successful runs (41.1%) places it 12th in the league right now.
     
  19. nyashfan

    nyashfan For Earth Below

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    Wow! Hard to believe the Dolphins rank 12th! I looked at the glossary but don't have a feel as to what defines a successful run. Suppose it's 3rd and 18 and the Dolphins play it safe and run, gaining 7 yards. The defense would be conceding the run to protect against a big passing play. Would that be categorized as a successful run? I think it is very ambitious to define these advanced statistics with proper context.

     
  20. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan E tū iho nei, tū iho nei, hī!

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    I think the problem again lies with our line. We did some of our best running..when we used essentially an extra o lineman. It seems like...our line can run block ..but only when we pack the extra beef. Which then takes away from our passing attack. We can't run and pass out of the same formations.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
     
  21. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    does anyone really believe that miami can line up and run the ball and consistently be in 2nd and 6??? i mean really...wtf

    teams laugh at our run game...
     
  22. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    The only objective data we have with regard to the run blocking of the offensive line tell us the line isn't any worse in that regard than the average team.

    ---------- Post added at 12:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:34 PM ----------

    Well then they should also laugh at half of the run games in the league, since the Dolphins perform better in terms of yards per carry than about that many teams.

    Although yet again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.
     
  23. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    A run is considered "successful" if it results in positive expected points added, which refers to the following:

    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/08/glossary.html
     
  24. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    No, but at the same time, do you really believe Tannehill is at a point in his career where he can win games by himself against opposing Ds that don't have to respect the run at all?
     
  25. phishxhead

    phishxhead Ring Of Honor

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    Stats are just stats sometimes. If you just watch the games it is pretty evident that these guys are bad at running the ball, especially now with the 3rd string OL.
     
  26. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Or perhaps you're simply falling prey to confirmation bias.
     
  27. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    Then just run Clay up the middle 25 times a game for all I care, you`ll get 2-4 yards every time, never lose ten yards. At least then, the D wont have a choice but to respect the fact that we might run it...
     
  28. phishxhead

    phishxhead Ring Of Honor

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    Could be. Just watching and using common sense, I'm not sure how getting stuffed for negative yards consistently helps THIS team win.
     
  29. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    no...most these other young qbs in the same type scenario ie you stop the run though warts wise are showing much more than ryan tannehills i can tell ya that...so many crutch qbs in this league...can't play from the pocket can't read the field and coverage

    but you also aren't gonna win getting yourself in 3rd and 8 over and over cause you know rushing attempts lead to wins either jamming the ball into 8 man fronts when you can't get any push...this stuff is so football dumb it floors me...all more 3rd and long means is more pressure on your suspect pass pro....

    i don't care what that stat of 4.1 ypc says you watch the damn games this team cannot run the ball with any consistency against anyone pretty much...god dang tell that dude to shove that stupid stat up his ***

    placing numbers in a vacuum is flat out ignorant when it comes to football...they dont account for what kind of defenses the opposition shows you or how you have to allocate personnel to get the results you do etc...just flat vacuum no common sense or situational awareness accounted for at all...but hey that's what he drops all day long
     
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  30. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    Are you aware of any data that support the belief that the Dolphins get stuffed for negative yards any more often than the average team in the league?

    The data I'm aware of actually points out that they're 12th in the league in terms of their percentage of successful runs.

    That said, however, once again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.
     
  31. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    what the hell makes you think you will get two to four yards every time when the defense starts watching your tape and sees how heavy your tendencies are just jamming the fb up the middle???

    this league is about adjustments and exposing weaknesses...you may get two to four yards for a quarter or a half but if you keep showing it they will adjust and shut it down...and the only thing you will get is a bunch of 3rd and very longs where this teams 5 man protects can be exposed...

    and pile up losses among other things...

    do people know what film study preparation is here??? i wonder some times
     
  32. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Donator

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    Pretty much. If it were that simple, you'd see teams that struggle run the ball doing exactly that.
     
  33. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    what you'd see is a lot of defenses with the backers in the a gap presnap...and the safeties like 5 yards off the ball...
     
  34. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    And that's where you can at least sell a PA. I wasn't being totally serious with the Clay up the middle thing. I was being serious with running inside more than 20 times a game, not because I think we`ll that much successful with it but it will open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd down...
     
  35. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    And guess what Ryan Tannehill's QB rating is off of play-action?

    117.3

    His QB rating is the rest of the time?

    75.3
     
  36. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    most qbs work higher off pa cause it gives em better singled up looks etc and makes the pass rushers maintain run responsibility but sherman knows how much higher his rating is off pa and would use it more IF he felt like the run game would show some consistency...and it just doesn't very often

    at least that's my read on it...the oc would love to run the ball more but he doesn't feel like he can move it that way...and i don't either from what i see in most games...also working pa on first down is something he should be using more...that's on the oc to give the qb the freedom to check into more downfield pa calls and til this last game at least we didn't see it much but we also didn't see many teams commiting an 8th man to the box cause they were snuffing out our run with 7 man fronts

    and this is all i'm gonna say about the subject...i'm done beating a dead horse...we don't have the personnel to run the scheme the way we want to on the oline run game especially...
     
  37. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    While it's true that most QBs have better QB ratings off of play-action than they do the rest of the time, Ryan Tannehill's difference of 42 QB rating points in this regard is in the 93rd percentile in the league, nearly 1.5 standard deviations above the league average of 15.6.

    Well I don't know how much more "consistency" Sherman needs than a 41.1% success rate, which is currently 12th in the league.

    I think you probably ought to consider that Sherman just isn't doing a very good job right now.
     
  38. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    absolutely...no argument from me...but i think its more than not running the ball...and he does have personnel limitations up front especially that he must work with and it applies in the run and passing game...and that are really hard to hide
     
  39. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    I would think step one in working with that would be to be as unpredictable as possible. And I would think that would help as well with the presence of a developmental quarterback.

    When the team can establish no identity either on the ground or through the air, and is relegated to only average levels of performance in both areas, I would think that keeping defenses off-balance would be the first order of business. Instead, Sherman is abandoning the run and putting the offense on his developmental QB, and becoming all too predictable in the process.
     
  40. dnespins

    dnespins Well-Known Member

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    these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.
     
  41. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    The correlation between wins and rushing attempts differential holds true in the first half as well, when the portion of your post I highlighted doesn't apply.

    Don't folks realize that balance means unpredictability, which keeps opposing teams from knowing as often how to defend you most effectively?
     
  42. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    and who knows maybe down the road the qb will be better for it...i tend to lean that will be the case...hes definitely putting a lot on the qb and putting him under fire on the regular...

    i see the qb and passing game as more of a strength and asset than the running game...and i trust it more from the aspect that the qb has proven to me that despite all he has on his plate he's smart with the football and makes good reads and checks at the los...

    he may not be ready yet to play at a consistently high level given these current situations but the natural growth i expect and i see already from year one to now tells me he will be...

    kills me though that we arent going full no huddle and tempo yet...once that happens we can offset some of these weaknesses in both phases
     
  43. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    I'm not even sure how I would handle the problem of stacked boxes and poor personnel if I'm the offensive coordinator, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't simply abandon the run completely though. I think you need to keep the running plays at a certain percentage no matter how poorly its working, what I would do is use a lot more reverses than average and on a lot of plays have the o-line run block for a short pass-run option with Tannehill, just make sure you drill it into his head not to take a hit trying to get an extra yard.

    I think the offensive coordinator position is the hardest position on a team just a notch below head coach, and it probably should be occupied by a young imaginative mind. Sherman is probably great at the coaching part of the job but he's getting killed by defensive coordinators in the planning and strategy part of it.
     
  44. Kencoboy

    Kencoboy Starter

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    Something to add to the argument is the 3 WR sets and the lack of a FB. If you guys have seen the Packers throw Eddie Lacy at anyone this year it's smashmouth FB at its finest. Without a real FB on the roster we don't have a chance to play the I formation and just attempt to beat the crap out of a defense. There are times in a game when you need to be able to do so...especially protecting a late lead. The few times I do remember anything similar we've tried has failed miserably with Egnew at FB (I'm thinking of the safety in the Tampa Bay game). Thoughts???
     
  45. ATL_PHIN_FAN

    ATL_PHIN_FAN Winner Under Construction

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    Shou and Co., please forget the promising appearance of the 4.1 rushing average. It means absolutely nothing in this case. Here's why:

    I believe other teams are getting 3-4 yards a pop and an occasional 10-30. That's typical for a decent rushing game. Their 4 yard average is constructive.

    1. It earns them balance, which is needed to loosen up tight coverage of receivers, pulling the defense in closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the passing game a better chance of success.

    2. It gives them a real chance to run out the clock as halves close. If you can be fairly certain of 3.0 each rushing attempt, all you have to do is run it 3 times and get lucky on one of them for that extra yard. Even if you don't quite make it, you have the option of going for it on 4th and short, and likely making it. You've also run minutes of precious time off the clock or forced your opponent to take defensive time outs. Not ideal for them!

    3. If the opposing defense tries to stack the box against a rush, especially on an obvious rushing play like 4th and inches, there's no better time to attempt a play action pass! (approaching 85% chance of success, I'd wager).

    This is what the Dolphins of the '70s did all the time.

    On the other hand, our current running game is so sporadic that it cannot be counted on earning a 3rd and 1 conversion, for heaven's sake. Are we even above 30% for the year? I've be surprised if we are. That is NOT constructive. I can see why Sherman thinks he must pass as much as he does, even when we really, really need a first or to run down the clock dependably.
     
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  46. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    The Fins had the lead plenty of times this season, and they`re still bottom 3 in the league in rushing attempts... explain that...?
     
  47. Shouright

    Shouright A True Fan

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    So this is just what you believe subjectively, despite the fact that the Dolphins are successful on 41.1% of their runs, which is currently 12th-best in the league?

    Additionally, are you aware that it's rushing attempts, even in the first half, that strongly predict winning, not rushing success?

    The relevant data here are that the Dolphins are the third-worst team in the league in terms of balance generated by running the ball, despite the fact that there is no objective information available that they run the ball any worse than the average team when they do run it.

    This is very simple. Mike Sherman isn't running the ball enough. I don't think we need to squirm around and contort ourselves into explaining that away with irrelevant and subjective perceptions.
     
  48. TX-FinFan

    TX-FinFan Seasoned Veteran

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    It would be interesting to analyze the distribution of runs and yardage gained by down and distance. Seems like even on 3rd and 1 we are afraid to run it and instead try some silly pass. If we don't have the confidence in our line to get 1 freaking yard we got problems.
     
  49. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    Its gonna be interesting to see what the plan is against the Jets, they have the number 1 ranked rush defense but they are a little weak against the pass. Carolina has the number 3 ranked rush defense fwiw. This is how our running backs have fared against other top rushing defenses:

    3. Carolina---- 16 yards
    6. Baltimore- 16 yards
    8. Tampa Bay- 2 yards

    Thigpen better be up to the task.
     
  50. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Donator

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    Well if they're not going to run, they better pass it on all vertical levels to keep the D somewhat honest.
     

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