Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

[hoops]

Then just run Clay up the middle 25 times a game for all I care, you`ll get 2-4 yards every time, never lose ten yards. At least then, the D wont have a choice but to respect the fact that we might run it...

what the hell makes you think you will get two to four yards every time when the defense starts watching your tape and sees how heavy your tendencies are just jamming the fb up the middle???

this league is about adjustments and exposing weaknesses...you may get two to four yards for a quarter or a half but if you keep showing it they will adjust and shut it down...and the only thing you will get is a bunch of 3rd and very longs where this teams 5 man protects can be exposed...

and pile up losses among other things...

do people know what film study preparation is here??? i wonder some times

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

what the hell makes you think you will get two to four yards every time when the defense starts watching your tape and sees how heavy your tendencies are just jamming the fb up the middle???

Pretty much. If it were that simple, you'd see teams that struggle run the ball doing exactly that.

 

[hoops]

Pretty much. If it were that simple, you'd see teams that struggle run the ball doing exactly that.

what you'd see is a lot of defenses with the backers in the a gap presnap...and the safeties like 5 yards off the ball...

 

[NBP81]

what you'd see is a lot of defenses with the backers in the a gap presnap...and the safeties like 5 yards off the ball...

And that's where you can at least sell a PA. I wasn't being totally serious with the Clay up the middle thing. I was being serious with running inside more than 20 times a game, not because I think we`ll that much successful with it but it will open up the playbook on 2nd and 3rd down...

 

[Shouright]

And that's where you can at least sell a PA.

And guess what Ryan Tannehill's QB rating is off of play-action?

117.3

His QB rating is the rest of the time?

75.3

 

[hoops]

And guess what Ryan Tannehill's QB rating is off of play-action?

117.3

His QB rating is the rest of the time?

75.3

most qbs work higher off pa cause it gives em better singled up looks etc and makes the pass rushers maintain run responsibility but sherman knows how much higher his rating is off pa and would use it more IF he felt like the run game would show some consistency...and it just doesn't very often

at least that's my read on it...the oc would love to run the ball more but he doesn't feel like he can move it that way...and i don't either from what i see in most games...also working pa on first down is something he should be using more...that's on the oc to give the qb the freedom to check into more downfield pa calls and til this last game at least we didn't see it much but we also didn't see many teams commiting an 8th man to the box cause they were snuffing out our run with 7 man fronts

and this is all i'm gonna say about the subject...i'm done beating a dead horse...we don't have the personnel to run the scheme the way we want to on the oline run game especially...

 

[Shouright]

most qbs work higher off pa cause it gives em better singled up looks etc and makes the pass rushers maintain run responsibility

While it's true that most QBs have better QB ratings off of play-action than they do the rest of the time, Ryan Tannehill's difference of 42 QB rating points in this regard is in the 93rd percentile in the league, nearly 1.5 standard deviations above the league average of 15.6.

but sherman knows how much higher his rating is off pa and would use it more IF he felt like the run game would show some consistency...and it just doesn't very often

Well I don't know how much more "consistency" Sherman needs than a 41.1% success rate, which is currently 12th in the league.

I think you probably ought to consider that Sherman just isn't doing a very good job right now.

 

[hoops]

While it's true that most QBs have better QB ratings off of play-action than they do the rest of the time, Ryan Tannehill's difference of 42 QB rating points in this regard is in the 93rd percentile in the league, nearly 1.5 standard deviations above the league average of 15.6.

Well I don't know how much more "consistency" Sherman needs than a 41.1% success rate, which is currently 12th in the league.

I think you probably ought to consider that Sherman just isn't doing a very good job right now.

absolutely...no argument from me...but i think its more than not running the ball...and he does have personnel limitations up front especially that he must work with and it applies in the run and passing game...and that are really hard to hide

 

[Shouright]

absolutely...no argument from me...but i think its more than not running the ball...and he does have personnel limitations up front especially that he must work with and it applies in the run and passing game...and that are really hard to hide

I would think step one in working with that would be to be as unpredictable as possible. And I would think that would help as well with the presence of a developmental quarterback.

When the team can establish no identity either on the ground or through the air, and is relegated to only average levels of performance in both areas, I would think that keeping defenses off-balance would be the first order of business. Instead, Sherman is abandoning the run and putting the offense on his developmental QB, and becoming all too predictable in the process.

 

[dnespins]

This is a follow up on shouright`s thread regarding the teams lack of rushing attempts. Got curious so I took a look at playoffs teams from the last 4 seasons(since 2009) and I wasn't really surprised of the results... The Fins are on pace to end the season with 336 rushing attempts. The team with the least rushing attempts to make the playoffs in the last four years are the 2011 Detroit Lions with 356. Out of all those playoff teams(48), only 9 made it with less than 400 attempts. Only 2 of those are from the AFC, the 2009 and 2010 Peyton Manning Colts.... NFC teams who made it with less than 400 carries: GB(395), DET(356), ATL(378), NO(380), PHI(384), SEA(385), ARI(365). Now for those who think what we're running is that famous GB offense, consider this, the lower amount of carries that team has put out since 2009 is 395 in 2011 and averages to 422 carries a season. So let me ask you this, WHY do these coaches, who have QBs such as Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady feel like they have to run the ball to have success as a football team. And more importantly, why do some fans think that Ryan Tannehill, in his second pro football season, should be able to do so when absolutely nobody has done it in the last four years?(Im pretty sure it goes much further than that, just too lazy to go further) Its not an excuse guys...

these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.

 

[Shouright]

these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.

The correlation between wins and rushing attempts differential holds true in the first half as well, when the portion of your post I highlighted doesn't apply.

Don't folks realize that balance means unpredictability, which keeps opposing teams from knowing as often how to defend you most effectively?

 

[hoops]

I would think step one in working with that would be to be as unpredictable as possible. And I would think that would help as well with the presence of a developmental quarterback.

When the team can establish no identity either on the ground or through the air, and is relegated to only average levels of performance in both areas, I would think that keeping defenses off-balance would be the first order of business. Instead, Sherman is abandoning the run and putting the offense on his developmental QB, and becoming all too predictable in the process.

and who knows maybe down the road the qb will be better for it...i tend to lean that will be the case...hes definitely putting a lot on the qb and putting him under fire on the regular...

i see the qb and passing game as more of a strength and asset than the running game...and i trust it more from the aspect that the qb has proven to me that despite all he has on his plate he's smart with the football and makes good reads and checks at the los...

he may not be ready yet to play at a consistently high level given these current situations but the natural growth i expect and i see already from year one to now tells me he will be...

kills me though that we arent going full no huddle and tempo yet...once that happens we can offset some of these weaknesses in both phases

 

[roy_miami]

I'm not even sure how I would handle the problem of stacked boxes and poor personnel if I'm the offensive coordinator, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't simply abandon the run completely though. I think you need to keep the running plays at a certain percentage no matter how poorly its working, what I would do is use a lot more reverses than average and on a lot of plays have the o-line run block for a short pass-run option with Tannehill, just make sure you drill it into his head not to take a hit trying to get an extra yard.

I think the offensive coordinator position is the hardest position on a team just a notch below head coach, and it probably should be occupied by a young imaginative mind. Sherman is probably great at the coaching part of the job but he's getting killed by defensive coordinators in the planning and strategy part of it.

 

[Kencoboy]

Something to add to the argument is the 3 WR sets and the lack of a FB. If you guys have seen the Packers throw Eddie Lacy at anyone this year it's smashmouth FB at its finest. Without a real FB on the roster we don't have a chance to play the I formation and just attempt to beat the crap out of a defense. There are times in a game when you need to be able to do so...especially protecting a late lead. The few times I do remember anything similar we've tried has failed miserably with Egnew at FB (I'm thinking of the safety in the Tampa Bay game). Thoughts???

 

[ATL_PHIN_FAN]

Are you aware of any data that support the belief that the Dolphins get stuffed for negative yards any more often than the average team in the league?

The data I'm aware of actually points out that they're 12th in the league in terms of their percentage of successful runs.

That said, however, once again, rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success.

Shou and Co., please forget the promising appearance of the 4.1 rushing average. It means absolutely nothing in this case. Here's why:

I believe other teams are getting 3-4 yards a pop and an occasional 10-30. That's typical for a decent rushing game. Their 4 yard average is constructive.

1. It earns them balance, which is needed to loosen up tight coverage of receivers, pulling the defense in closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the passing game a better chance of success.

2. It gives them a real chance to run out the clock as halves close. If you can be fairly certain of 3.0 each rushing attempt, all you have to do is run it 3 times and get lucky on one of them for that extra yard. Even if you don't quite make it, you have the option of going for it on 4th and short, and likely making it. You've also run minutes of precious time off the clock or forced your opponent to take defensive time outs. Not ideal for them!

3. If the opposing defense tries to stack the box against a rush, especially on an obvious rushing play like 4th and inches, there's no better time to attempt a play action pass! (approaching 85% chance of success, I'd wager).

This is what the Dolphins of the '70s did all the time.

On the other hand, our current running game is so sporadic that it cannot be counted on earning a 3rd and 1 conversion, for heaven's sake. Are we even above 30% for the year? I've be surprised if we are. That is NOT constructive. I can see why Sherman thinks he must pass as much as he does, even when we really, really need a first or to run down the clock dependably.