Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance. | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Interresting stats, follow up on offense balance.

dnespins said:
these stats remind me of the the RB carries stat people love to throw out there. you know, when running back X carries 20+ times this team is 12-1 over the last 2 seasons etc.....no ****. they were up the in 4th quarter and running the ball to melt the clock. same as with all these team rushing attempts for playoff teams. they have more rushing attempts because they ahead in games and scoring more than 17 pts/gm. if RT could hit a 9 sunday we would have been up big on the panthers and had a lot more 2nd half rushing attempts.
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The Fins had the lead plenty of times this season, and they`re still bottom 3 in the league in rushing attempts... explain that...?
 
ATL_PHIN_FAN said:
Shou and Co., please forget the promising appearance of the 4.1 rushing average. It means absolutely nothing in this case. Here's why:

I believe other teams are getting 3-4 yards a pop and an occasional 10-30. That's typical for a decent rushing game. Their 4 yard average is constructive.

1. It earns them balance, which is needed to loosen up tight coverage of receivers, pulling the defense in closer to the line of scrimmage, giving the passing game a better chance of success.

2. It gives them a real chance to run out the clock as halves close. If you can be fairly certain of 3.0 each rushing attempt, all you have to do is run it 3 times and get lucky on one of them for that extra yard. Even if you don't quite make it, you have the option of going for it on 4th and short, and likely making it. You've also run minutes of precious time off the clock or forced your opponent to take defensive time outs. Not ideal for them!

3. If the opposing defense tries to stack the box against a rush, especially on an obvious rushing play like 4th and inches, there's no better time to attempt a play action pass! (approaching 85% chance of success, I'd wager).

This is what the Dolphins of the '70s did all the time.

On the other hand, our current running game is so sporadic that it cannot be counted on earning a 3rd and 1 conversion, for heaven's sake. Are we even above 30% for the year? I've be surprised if we are. That is NOT constructive. I can see why Sherman thinks he must pass as much as he does, even when we really, really need a first or to run down the clock dependably.
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So this is just what you believe subjectively, despite the fact that the Dolphins are successful on 41.1% of their runs, which is currently 12th-best in the league?

Additionally, are you aware that it's rushing attempts, even in the first half, that strongly predict winning, not rushing success?

The relevant data here are that the Dolphins are the third-worst team in the league in terms of balance generated by running the ball, despite the fact that there is no objective information available that they run the ball any worse than the average team when they do run it.

This is very simple. Mike Sherman isn't running the ball enough. I don't think we need to squirm around and contort ourselves into explaining that away with irrelevant and subjective perceptions.
 
It would be interesting to analyze the distribution of runs and yardage gained by down and distance. Seems like even on 3rd and 1 we are afraid to run it and instead try some silly pass. If we don't have the confidence in our line to get 1 freaking yard we got problems.
 
Its gonna be interesting to see what the plan is against the Jets, they have the number 1 ranked rush defense but they are a little weak against the pass. Carolina has the number 3 ranked rush defense fwiw. This is how our running backs have fared against other top rushing defenses:

3. Carolina---- 16 yards
6. Baltimore- 16 yards
8. Tampa Bay- 2 yards

Thigpen better be up to the task.
 
Well if they're not going to run, they better pass it on all vertical levels to keep the D somewhat honest.
 
shouright said:
So this is just what you believe subjectively, despite the fact that the Dolphins are successful on 41.1% of their runs, which is currently 12th-best in the league?

Additionally, are you aware that it's rushing attempts, even in the first half, that strongly predict winning, not rushing success?

The relevant data here are that the Dolphins are the third-worst team in the league in terms of balance generated by running the ball, despite the fact that there is no objective information available that they run the ball any worse than the average team when they do run it.

This is very simple. Mike Sherman isn't running the ball enough. I don't think we need to squirm around and contort ourselves into explaining that away with irrelevant and subjective perceptions.
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I think the only way to prove your point or disprove my eyes is to do an analysis of our running plays given situations. How often are they successful, given the situations? When it's obviously desirable to run, can we? What is our success then? What I see is that we are forced to pass at critical points in most of our games because we can't depend on our running game to get even a yard. I also see the teams we play are very likely to get that yard. I really don't give a hoot about the stats if they don't account for that. Can you comfortably tell me that they do?
 
ATL_PHIN_FAN said:
I think the only way to prove your point or disprove my eyes is to do an analysis of our running plays given situations. How often are they successful, given the situations? When it's obviously desirable to run, can we? What is our success then? What I see is that we are forced to pass at critical points in most of our games because we can't depend on our running game to get even a yard. I also see the teams we play are very likely to get that yard. I really don't give a hoot about the stats if they don't account for that. Can you comfortably tell me that they do?
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How would you define those sorts of situations? Being ahead by at least a certain number of points in a game, perhaps? Running the ball to try to get a first down when only a certain number of yards are needed?
 
shouright said:
How would you define those sorts of situations? Being ahead by at least a certain number of points in a game, perhaps? Running the ball to try to get a first down when only a certain number of yards are needed?
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It would be very difficult to quantify or categorize exactly. That's because we also have a very subjective thing that must also be accounted for: Mike Sherman's and ultimately, Joe Philbin's, judgement. Together, they decide when we should or should not run. The fact that they've chosen not to run at critical junctures this year speaks volumes toward their lack of faith in our running game, despite the apparent healthy average we currently maintain.
 
ATL_PHIN_FAN said:
It would be very difficult to quantify or categorize exactly. That's because we also have a very subjective thing that must also be accounted for: Mike Sherman's and ultimately, Joe Philbin's, judgement. Together, they decide when we should or should not run. The fact that they've chosen not to run at critical junctures this year speaks volumes toward their lack of faith in our running game, despite the apparent healthy average we currently maintain.
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First of all, what is a "critical juncture," and second, where is the evidence that the team's percentage of runs at those times is any less than its percentage of runs in general?

The problem with your perception here is that it's based on nothing objective, yet you're stating it as though it's a certainty. It's entirely possible you're falling prey to confirmation bias here, in that the team could be running no less at the times you're talking about than it does in general.

Moreover, we're a long way from the point that rushing attempts predict wins, not rushing success. It's as if some people here believe that, despite the importance of rushing attempts, running the ball is nonetheless continent on success. That isn't true. You have to run the ball even when you aren't successful, yet, again, there is no evidence the Dolphins are less successful than the average team.

In other words, you could tell me the Dolphins are not successful running the ball in some way, and I wouldn't care. I would tell you they'd have to run the ball nonetheless. The critical point isn't whether they're successful.
 
I think the coaching staff lacks patience, a soon as they`re not getting 5 yards a carry they completely abandon the running throwing and start throwing all over the place. Thing is the OL and running backs benefit from every previous attempts, as it attacks the DL instead of responding to it, tiring them. So maybe they should stick with it and see where that takes'em. I don't have access to rushing attemps in first and 2nd halves but Im pretty sure 2nd half attempts are few and far between and it shouldnt be considering we've been ahead in multiple games entering the second half...
 
Using the Panthers game as a barometer i.e. leading at halftime, I think there are two competing strategies to adopt going into the 2nd half. The first strategy is to go for the quick score by passing in order to "ice" the game. The second is to commit to the run and control the clock while preserving the lead. Sherman's philosophy seems to be to go for the quick score, to force the opponent to become one-dimensional.

If the quick score fails to materialize I get the feeling that Sherman shows indecisiveness and has no idea how to proceed. Clearly once Carolina scored quickly to pull to 16-13, Sherman panicked and felt desperate to need to respond immediately with a quick strike. It feels as if the game plan disintegrated into chaos.

It would be interesting to see the Dolphins' run/pass ratio broken out by down split by halves or even quarters.
 
NBP81 said:
I think the coaching staff lacks patience, a soon as they`re not getting 5 yards a carry they completely abandon the running throwing and start throwing all over the place. Thing is the OL and running backs benefit from every previous attempts, as it attacks the DL instead of responding to it, tiring them. So maybe they should stick with it and see where that takes'em. I don't have access to rushing attemps in first and 2nd halves but Im pretty sure 2nd half attempts are few and far between and it shouldnt be considering we've been ahead in multiple games entering the second half...
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According to ESPN.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/mia/type/rushing/miami-dolphins
1st half rushing attempts: 136 attempts for 614 yards.
2nd half rushing attempts: 92 attempts for 324 yards.

To break it down even further.
1st quarter: 62 attempts for 199 yards.
2nd quarter: 74 attempts for 415 yards.
3rd quarter: 45 attempts for 152 yards.
4th quarter: 47 attempts for 172 yards.
 
if dolphins had top 10 qb. the doplphins would be in playoff every year. they put to much pressure on defense....
 
at end of day Carolina cb could not cover deep ball. why not used difference wr to go deep or go deep to wallace... that was key to beating them... other team will watch dolphins game and beat panthers. we did not need running game to work. dolphins to me play lose...
 
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