My Perspective, Patterson vs Allen

[ckparrothead]

I'm talking about what he did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

I know he is special once the ball is in his hands, but the kid looks completely raw and flat out ugly in many areas of wr, getting that ball there may not be so easy. On top of that, you keep mentioning this juco transfer, well now he's going ti have ti make the jump into the NFL.

And he's going to have to learn technique AND and system, that many vets seem to have trouble with.

Thats a tall order.

But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

 

[xXwarXx]

But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

Didn't know about the stevie Johnson juco thing, and I dont Know how many players have had similar stories but I'm guessing most juco guys don't become Stevie Johnson. But again, I don't know much About this.

A lot of what you use as excuses as to why he wasn't assimilated into the offense as a wr is what scares me the most. Why wasn't he pushed into the offense more? Even as time went by? You probably know more about this than I do, but as a wr, what does he actually do good? I don't see much there.

I'm not ignoring the other ways he's produced, but we all need to be realistic, were not drafting him to run trick plays and return kicks, were drafting him to play wr.

And I completely disagree that his transfer from juco to tenn gives any clue of how he will transfer to the NFL. There is really no comparison between the two.

 

[xXwarXx]

Also just want to add, I think you may be underestimating the complications of this system as far as WR's go. There's a reason you don't see the patriots drafting a lot of athlete WRs, that are raw.

They won't make it. They don't even have a chance in that system,. That's why no matter how much NE tries to replace branch and welker they are still there.

Were obviously not NE, but that is where philbin is trying to bring it to. When you hear vets talking about how tough the system is, just imagine what a juco kid is going to see. He won't see anything cuz he won't get on the field, same way egnew couldn't. How many times did we see guys like Charles clay line up in the wrong place?

I dunno, Maybe you just have far more faith in raw players than I do.

 

[finfan54]

I just see Patterson as a good kid who has great moves in the open field. No way does he remind me of Ginn. He is tougher than Ginn. I just dont buy the hype as a #1 guy. What I see is end around dangerous with occasional over the middle pass. I think he would do well with other guys getting doubled but so would others IMO.

His stick foot in the open field is very good and seems to go forward instead of one Brandon Marshall who completely stops.

 

[Digital]

What I notice first about Patterson is that he has made a lot of progress from arriving at UT to breaking into the first team, to finishing the season as one of their top weapons.

Justin Hunter, who I also like, has had great teaching every step of the way, and in high school played for a good system and was a very highly regarded prospect. His time at UT was as the #1 WR from day 1 and he learned a lot of great things, like decent route running, how to high point a reception, and how to be a good downfield blocker. He also has been taught for years how to properly snatch the football as a hands catcher. My issues with Hunter are that he lacks sufficient arm/hand strength and has trouble holding onto the ball in traffic. He also simply drops some very makable throws from concentration lapses. These things can be learned, but my worry is that he has been taught the right way for many years ... and its still an issue. I am a huge fan of Justin Hunter, but the guy needs to add some strength and concentrate on catching before running. Secondly, he needs to get and stay healthy. He needs to add muscle to help with all of this ... but the kid is a long lean jumping machine mismatch in the red zone and a fast deep threat with a great wingspan.

Patterson hasn't had the same level of teaching ...but he has started learning at a nice pace, which is very encouraging. He knows he needs to work, which is crucial. He seems like a guy who will be receptive to the teaching he needs. Patterson may be raw, but he sure appears to be doing the right things to get where he needs to get. And I like that.

We aren't at the same stage as the Patriots. They are at the very top with a great established QB and a humming machine that always features WR's, offers a goood chance for a ring, and need to win NOW because their great QB is long in the tooth. The Dolphins are a rebuilding team putting the foundation in place and our young QB is still learning the ropes. We can't attract top WR's for cut-rate prices to give them a chance to star in the Brady and Belichik show and maybe pick up the grand prize, a ring. We need to pay top dollar to entice those WR's NOT to go there but come to a nice city and fight in an uncertain and youthful system. The Patriots don't develop WR's because they don't have to do so. What we want is a pace-setter and some young WR's to grow with Tannehill. Ideally the pace-setter would teach the young WR's how to become great and what is necessary.

 

[ckparrothead]

Going back to the JUCO thing and realistic expectations for how JUCO players should produce in the first year coming out of JUCO, here are some more players for you. Not all of them are successful pros. They don't have to be. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is not that he's going to be a successful pro because he's a JUCO transfer. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is that he produced 778 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, which in SOME years would come shockingly close to leading the entire SEC in pure receiver catching production, and this should be considered pretty good for it being his first year off a JUCO transfer.

But here are some stats on production of JUCO players from their 1st year on their new team, to the 2nd year:

Isaac Bruce: 43-562-5, 74-1054-10
Chad Johnson: 33-713-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
Keyshawn Johnson: 58-1140-6, 90-1218-6
Steve L. Smith: 35-743-4, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 24-378-2, 42-656-6
Stevie Johnson: 12-159-1, 60-1041-13
Kevin Curtis: 100-1531-10, 74-1258-9
Deion Branch: 71-1016-9, 72-1188-9
Devin Thomas: 6-90-1, 79-1260-8
Robert Ferguson: 58-885-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
Quincy Morgan: 41-1007-9, 64-1166-14
Javon Walker: 20-313-3, 45-944-7

The list above are all guys I could find that actually either did something in the NFL, or ended up taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft or better.

They averaged 42 catches, 711 yards and 5 touchdowns receiving the football as first year JUCO transfers. Coincidentally (or not), Cordarrelle Patterson had 46 catches for 778 yards and 5 touchdowns as a first year JUCO transfer.

 

[xXwarXx]

Had no idea all those guys came out of juco, thx for that info, it def gives me better insight and hope for Patterson. Your def making a good sales pitch.

If you were to take Patterson, who else would you ideally bring in on offense or through the draft? I guess one of my biggest worries, is I want to see tannehill have legit targets now. I could accept Patterson a lot easier if we added more polished WRs. Than I would feel a lot more comfortable w that pick.

I would still take Allen though if it was my choice. Your arguements make a lot of sense, but sometimes I watch guys like jacoby jones for instance, after all these years, still catches everything w his body. Raw WRs scare me more than a raw rush linebacker for instance. I feel like there's just a ton of technique and reads that these guys need to learn, and without seeing much of it, it's hard to grasp that Patterson will actually make that leap.

 

[ckparrothead]

It's understandable. In no way am I trying to say Cordarrelle Patterson is a slam dunk and I'm not even saying he'd be my 1st choice at #12 overall. I just think he's on the list, and I think he's the only WR on the list at that pick.

I don't know if Cordarrelle Patterson's catching technique is as raw as you perceive. I've watched most of his games and seen just about every ball thrown his way. The one situation I really have a question about is his over the shoulder catching on vertical passes. Not every receiver has that going for him. Otherwise he has shown plenty of times the ability to snatch the ball with his hands away from his body, but he also shows the ability to determine when it's best to shield the catch with his body in situations where the defensive back is on him.

Where he's really raw is in his ability to see what's happening on the field, read leverage and make decisions quickly at full speed. That's going to come with time. But hell, Chad Johnson had an entire near-HOF career while masking an inability to do that consistently.

As for how I see him fitting in Miami's offense, I think first off in free agency you've got to make a Brian Hartline/Greg Jennings determination. The reason I group those two together is because I think people might be surprised how little a premium Miami might have to pay for a Greg Jennings over what Brian Hartline is asking. I don't believe the Dolphins should pay Hartline more than $4 million a year, but Hartline is probably going to be asking closer to $6 million a year. And so what happens if you could get Greg Jennings for between $7 and $8 million a year, a mere $1-2 million premium to Hartline's asking price? To me that's an easy upgrade decision. But if negotiations with both fall through, I would take a hard look at Johnny Knox's health.

But you're not done after that because whoever you get, be it Jennings, Knox or Hartline, isn't going to combine with Davone Bess to be good enough at that position. That's where a Cordarrelle Patterson would come in. But even then you'd not be done. There's too much talent in this Draft to just be "done" at that position. The Dolphins really only currently have two guys worth rostering, when you consider that Brian Hartline is a free agent. They have Davone Bess and Rishard Matthews. Armon Binns is a guy you bring to camp and see if he can win a job, no more than that. That's actually what Rishard Matthews still is, truth be told. So between the Hartline/Jennings/Knox acquisition, and the Patterson acquisition, you're still looking at one more acquisition. That's where you look at a Marquise Goodwin, Marquess Wilson or Chris Harper, IMO.

 

[ANUFan]

It's understandable. In no way am I trying to say Cordarrelle Patterson is a slam dunk and I'm not even saying he'd be my 1st choice at #12 overall. I just think he's on the list, and I think he's the only WR on the list at that pick.

I don't know if Cordarrelle Patterson's catching technique is as raw as you perceive. I've watched most of his games and seen just about every ball thrown his way. The one situation I really have a question about is his over the shoulder catching on vertical passes. Not every receiver has that going for him. Otherwise he has shown plenty of times the ability to snatch the ball with his hands away from his body, but he also shows the ability to determine when it's best to shield the catch with his body in situations where the defensive back is on him.

Where he's really raw is in his ability to see what's happening on the field, read leverage and make decisions quickly at full speed. That's going to come with time. But hell, Chad Johnson had an entire near-HOF career while masking an inability to do that consistently.

As for how I see him fitting in Miami's offense, I think first off in free agency you've got to make a Brian Hartline/Greg Jennings determination. The reason I group those two together is because I think people might be surprised how little a premium Miami might have to pay for a Greg Jennings over what Brian Hartline is asking. I don't believe the Dolphins should pay Hartline more than $4 million a year, but Hartline is probably going to be asking closer to $6 million a year. And so what happens if you could get Greg Jennings for between $7 and $8 million a year, a mere $1-2 million premium to Hartline's asking price? To me that's an easy upgrade decision. But if negotiations with both fall through, I would take a hard look at Johnny Knox's health.

But you're not done after that because whoever you get, be it Jennings, Knox or Hartline, isn't going to combine with Davone Bess to be good enough at that position. That's where a Cordarrelle Patterson would come in. But even then you'd not be done. There's too much talent in this Draft to just be "done" at that position. The Dolphins really only currently have two guys worth rostering, when you consider that Brian Hartline is a free agent. They have Davone Bess and Rishard Matthews. Armon Binns is a guy you bring to camp and see if he can win a job, no more than that. That's actually what Rishard Matthews still is, truth be told. So between the Hartline/Jennings/Knox acquisition, and the Patterson acquisition, you're still looking at one more acquisition. That's where you look at a Marquise Goodwin, Marquess Wilson or Chris Harper, IMO.

Curious, Why no mention of Mike Wallace?

 

[ckparrothead]

Curious, Why no mention of Mike Wallace?

I'm not that big a fan of his anymore. He's a little one-dimensional and I wonder if he hasn't been made a little bit by Ben Roethlisberger.

I do not at all consider Wallace to be a bad character. I just wonder if he has skills that would translate his Pittsburgh production onto a new team. Especially this team.

 

[glh205]

May be overkill, but I think we need Jennings AND Hartline. Couple those with Patterson as a deep threat and Bess in the slot and all of a sudden we have a WR corps that challenges defenses.

In my mind Patterson > Wallace, but it is one or the other on those guys. If we got someone like Wallace in FA, then I could unsterstand someone like Allen (but not at 12).

 

[xXwarXx]

Im in agreement that we need to chose either jennings or hartline for same reasons ck said.

Another reason for that is we won't put ourselves in a financial hole with a player like Wallace, it makes no sense to do that with a draft stacked in a WRs. IMO in any draft stacked at any position, you do everything possible to embrace it. No sense paying Wallace 12 mill when we can pay 3 WRs the same amt of money.

I wanted Wallace badly, but looking at the cap space and what is smarter long term, we can use that money to fill other areas, maybe less exciting areas. And go all out on playmakers in the draft.

Would be nice to develop our own stars and playmakers.

I actually looked at some pictures of Patterson and Julio, and they are identical in there build. Talents are a bit different but they are very similar in one aspect and that's body control. With the ball Patterson has incredible body control, Julio IMO has superior body control going after the ball.

Ck has Patterson growing on me again.

 

[ANUFan]

I'm not that big a fan of his anymore. He's a little one-dimensional and I wonder if he hasn't been made a little bit by Ben Roethlisberger.

I do not at all consider Wallace to be a bad character. I just wonder if he has skills that would translate his Pittsburgh production onto a new team. Especially this team.

Can you see him going to New England?

 

[Etuoo33]

The prospect of making him our first round choice makes it more important that we add a guy like Jennings to help Patterson learn how to read and react to defensive situations. I like him but wonder if 12 is too high vs losing him to another needy team!

 

[ckparrothead]

Can you see him going to New England?

Not their type either, IMO.

I could see Greg Jennings going there, though.