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Non First Round Running Back, Who Do You Want?

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Dolphins run/pass ratio and NFL balance rank during Miller's tenure after taking the starting role in Miami:

'13 - 37/63, 29th

'14 - 40/60, 24th

'15 - 36/64, 29th

That's what happens when your running back keeps getting 1 yard carries forcing your offending to constant 3rd and long.
 
icymi (which you apparently did):

Take away those long home runs, and his average is abysmal.

Which is why he's not here anymore and which is why he was awful in divisional games, and which is why I can care less about his average.

There's a reason tannehill was constantly in 3rd and long, and the wasted runs with Lamar miller was a big part of it.
 
So Lamar doesn't get credit for breaking long runs? That's sort of like saying Tom Brady is a good QB but take away those short TD passes and he aint squat!
 
So Lamar doesn't get credit for breaking long runs? That's sort of like saying Tom Brady is a good QB but take away those short TD passes and he aint squat!

No he gets credit, thats what he's good at.

But it makes his average extremely misleading.

If you look at his 4.6 average or whatever it might suggest to you that he's constantly running 4-5 yard runs. Which just isn't the case. You take a lot of short runs and the average jumps significantly once you add in those big home runs.

I thought this was pretty common sense, apparently not.
 
No he gets credit, thats what he's good at.

But it makes his average extremely misleading.

If you look at his 4.6 average or whatever it might suggest to you that he's constantly running 4-5 yard runs. Which just isn't the case. You take a lot of short runs and the average jumps significantly once you add in those big home runs.

I thought this was pretty common sense, apparently not.

Common sense understands the purpose and conclusions of arithmetic mean.
 
Prosise is the back I like the most in rounds 3 or 4.... I'm ok the a few other guys like Dixon or Perkins but the one back I hate and definitely do not want us to draft is Collins.... that would be the worst pick we could make
 
Common sense understands the purpose and conclusions of arithmetic mean.

I think Miller's 85 yard td run against Houston was the difference between him having a very good 4.6 yards per carry average and a 4.1 very average average. Not saying he doesn't get credit for the run, even though the safety missed a tackle that made the difference on the play, but sometimes numbers can be misleading. If you sale $5,000 worth of doughnuts for months and the one month there was a rare event in town you sold $45,000 in one month, that gives you $100,000 in sales. Officially you averaged $8,333.00 per month in sales, but it would be unwise when projecting your future earnings to estimate them at $100,00 per year, when in reality the projection should be $60,000.

Another way to look at it is out 200 carries Miller might give you two or three runs that his replacement could not give you. How much are those three runs worth and do they make a difference in the win column?
 
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If you sale $5,000 worth of doughnuts for months and the one month there was a rare event in town you sold $45,000 in one month, that gives you $100,000 in sales. Officially you averaged $8,333.00 per month in sales, but it would be unwise when projecting your future earnings to estimate them at $100,00 per year, when in reality the projection should be $60,000.

Common sense then says you need to buy a doughnut food truck to follow similar events outside your town and around the country and make $500k+/yr while simultaneously reaping the benefits of touring the US.

:brewskis:
 
Common sense then says you need to buy a doughnut food truck to follow similar events outside your town and around the country and make $500k+/yr while simultaneously reaping the benefits of touring touring the US.

:brewskis:

I can't argue with your business logic. :)
 
There may be only one RB that goes in the first round so basically this question is which RBs do you like other than Ezekiel Elliott.

I like Derrick Henry, Devontae Booker, Kenneth Dixon, Alex Collins, Daniel Lasco, Dwayne Washington, Josh Ferguson and Devon Johnson.

Derrick Henry is Jupiter. He's got the best 5 yard acceleration Sports Science has tested in the last 3 years from any player at any weight, the best 20 yard acceleration of any player in this draft class at any position. His acceleration has always been very good on tape so it's not just some trick. And that was at 247 lbs. Combine those things, it's why he was able to explode through 1,500 lbs of heavy-bags in the Sports Science drill a half-second faster than any RB they've ever tested that drill on. I hear the crap about his long legs meaning he's easy to bring down below the waist, etc. It's like a player can't even have a weakness anymore without being labeled crap. Every player has weaknesses. Not every player is damn near unstoppable above the waist. Not every player averages 105 yards per game after contact. Not every player leads the FBS in broken tackles. Not every player takes 406 touches in 15 games and yet gets even stronger in the final four games where he averaged 37 touches for 172 yards and 2 TDs a game. Burton Burns and Nick Saban were admittedly very uncomfortable leaning so heavily on him, they say neither has ever done that with a back before, but they couldn't resist because he was so good and because in Burton's words if they've ever coached a player in their careers that could handle it, it was Henry. That kind of display of durability is about as rare as...well, about as rare as a 6'3" & 247 lbs back running a 4.52 with elite acceleration, a 10'10" broad jump and 37" vertical. So, rare. I'm not saying this guy is Adrian Peterson, but I do think people very commonly over-think him. It's not as if he's got bad vision or decisiveness. I think his vision & decisiveness are actually good. He's just learning as a blocker (but has high potential) and hasn't been used in the passing game.

I think I've compared Devontae Booker in the past to like a Marshall Faulk. His receiving skills are that impressive to me. But Kenneth Dixon is cut from the same cloth that way. These are two all-rounders. Dixon displays better blocking skills (thus far, pretty much all RBs have to develop this in the NFL as they're not generally coached strongly on it in college), while Booker has a bit more power. Dixon reminds me a little of DeAngelo Williams.

Alex Collins probably has the best vision and decisive instincts in the class, but is physically not all that impressive. He uses his blockers the best, stays square to the line of scrimmage, has the earliest vision in terms of seeing the defense before he even gets to the mesh point, and so he can get out oa surprising amount of trouble in the backfield. He's going to have to follow in the footsteps of other physically less impressive backs that get by on their skill set, guys like Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Joique Bell, Chris Ivory and Ahmad Bradshaw. I think he can do it, especially if he goes to the right system that will reward him for his vision. The true zone systems where you run zone-in/zone-out almost exclusively seem to be the ones that are very vision and technical skill dependent, so that would seem to me where he should go.

The surprise guy that I didn't know I was going to like so much is Daniel Lasco. I believe he deserves consideration with those other guys, along with Josh Ferguson, Dwayne Washington and Devon Johnson. Lasco is a little smaller than you'd like, basically the same size Lamar Miller was coming out. He plays very similarly to Miller. The speed and athleticism drip off him but it's not just that. He breaks tackles and his effort/energy level on a play to play basis are extremely good, that goes for blocking as well as receiving.

Josh Ferguson I saw live at Shrine practices and really got a feel for how good his vision and make-you-miss ability is in tight spaces. He's fast as well, and I see him as potentially another Andre Ellington or Dion Lewis.

As for Devon Johnson, I think we've been talking about him for a number of years actually since I watch a lot of Marshall football. At 6'0.5" and 238 lbs (I think he lost weight for the pro day, he played heavier), he has special acceleration and power, much like Derrick Henry. Except he has a lot more experience in the passing game, having been an H-Back before he moved to tailback. He could be a very good utility player and ball carrier.

Dwayne Washington is a guy that Slimm brought up years ago, that I got a look at back when Slimm brought him up, and I agreed with him for bringing him up when he did. He's a full 6'1" and 223 lbs, ran a 4.48 but I think he might be even faster than that on some days. Has a 37.5" vertical and 10'7" broad jump, 21 bench reps. He's very Melvin Gordon except he's actually physically a bit bigger and stronger than Gordon. He breaks off BIG runs (the kind where you don't stop until you get in the tunnel) at a rate that is comparable with Melvin Gordon, who was known for the uncanny rate at which he breaks off big runs. That size and speed combination is just very hard for defenders to deal with and I look at getting him in the late rounds like getting a bargain price for a kid who could end up being just as good as Gordon is/will be.

The other guys in the class...they have their positives and negatives, but I'm just not all that keen on them.
 
Decided to watch some more of Henry, still not sold him as far as the NFL goes. Someone compared him to Andre Williams I can't remember who though, but that comparison worries me because I can see where they got it.

But what a weird/awesome stiff arm he has. It doesn't look like he throws it hard, but it drops defenders like they were children.

It reminds me of when you push a little kids head and tell them to try and hit you, and they try there hardest but cant get any closer no matter how hard they try.

Might be the most dominating stiff arm I've ever seen since I've followed the draft.
 
If Miami thinks Ajayi can carry the load, Lasco makes a lot of sense. He probably has the best burst of any RB in the class, and he's a good receiver out of the backfield. Though his ability to break tackles is underrated, I would look to use him like S. Vereen/D. Woodhead. He's a matchup problem for most S's - let alone LB's.
 
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