wish i knew what you guys see that i dont in the jets. how could anyone say they are 12 win team? there is no way. i think the absolute best they could be is 10 win team, but thats pushing it. is see 8-8 or 9-7. we will see, or i will eat crow. i dont say this bc i hate them with a passion i just dont see it. the oline has downgraded, they dont have the weapons they had last year, and picked up two old wrs which one hasnt been in the league for two years.
You're the "Official Jest Hater," so it's hard to take anything you say about them seriously.
Our O/U is 10, we're -170 to make the playoffs. That's not saying we're a lock. %-wise, that's saying there's a 60-65% chance we make the playoffs. This is the NFL we're talking about. We're behind NE (11.5) and Pittsburgh and Baltimore (10.5); and are even with San Diego (also 10). The Chargers are -285 to make the playoffs, better odds than Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New York; and only slightly behind the Pats (who are -300). Who else is going to win that division? The Chiefs were a fluke, Oakland and Denver are bad. This is where you're having a problem. You see the Jets in the same light as the Chiefs.
The Dolphins O/U is at 7.5, and your playoff odds are +400 (20%). I think that's about right for Miami this year. You're not a terrible team, or even a bad one. The Dolphins fall into the category "not good enough." Henne has been "not good enough." Your defense is very good, but not great. The Ravens have had an elite defense for a decade, but over the last 11 years, have averaged 9.4 wins per season. It's hard to win 10 games, and even a great defense isn't going to get you there most of the time. Especially not when you play in a stacked division, which the Dolphins do.
When you break it down, the hierarchy in the AFC currently has the Patriots and Steelers on top, with the Colts, Ravens, Jets, and Chargers on the next tier, followed by teams like Kansas City and your Dolphins. You may not put the Jets on that 2nd tier, but there really isn't an argument to be made at the moment. A 1 point loss to Baltimore, 2 wins over the Patriots, 1 terrible loss to the Patriots, a win in Pittsburgh, a loss in Pittsburgh, a loss at Chicago, a win at Indy. The Jets only bad loss last year was to the Dolphins.
There are still a few Dolphin fans clinging to the hope that the Jets really aren't as good as they seem to be. It's one thing to have one team that is clearly better than you in the division, it's another to have two. It makes the goal of making the playoffs seem far off (Think about how Bengals and Browns fans must feel, the Bengals only got in 2 years ago because the Steelers had a rare off year). I think that ends this year. The Jets have built a solid organization from top to bottom over the last few years. There is no impending "cap hell" to deal with (in fact, all the deals the Jets gave out seem better with each new contract that's signed), the GM has shown an ability to repeatedly go out and acquire talent, and Rex Ryan has established himself as one of the best coaches in the league. As long as Ryan is the coach, the Jets defense will be near the top of the league. The last piece is Sanchez. If he doesn't progress, the Jets become the post-Super Bowl Ravens. If he does, they're a Super Bowl contender for a decade. Critics say he's been carried by the running game and the defense, and compare him to guys like Trent Dilfer and Rex Grossman. They say that the coaching staff doesn't entirely trust him. That may have been true his rookie year, but not last year. None of the guys they compare him to were asked to throw the ball 34 times per game in their 2nd season, and none of them performed in the playoffs the way Sanchez has.
If you want to find reasons to be down on the Jets, you can do so. Just don't pretend that the Jets don't have a very high ceiling. If Sanchez shows moderate progression, the Jets are a 12-13 win team (not accounting for injuries). It's that simple. If he gets worse then they're at 6-8 wins (defense won't allow them to be worse than that). If he's the same, they're at 9-10 wins.