SI.com: Peter King's pre-draft notes and rumors

[Hungover]

^ ^ Lee is a very under-rated player for a projected first rounder - people seem to be more in love with Cooks and Beckham for their better speed. Go back to this time last year and many had Lee projected top 10 overall for this draft - if you look at his past season he's been dealing with a knee injury and bad QB play. He runs great routes, has excellent hands and has a knack for yards after the catch. He's also well liked by both his team-mates and coaches (unlike Beckham - who is having said that also a very good talent) and will seemingly have no "prima-donna" issues that plague some WRs. He's going to step in straight away and produce in the NFL.

Every time I look at this WR class I'm amazed at it - some fantastic talents and uber-deep.

 

[xXwarXx]

I'm not sold of shazier at all. He's listed at 235 but during the season he looks closer to 220's, just looks very small and undersized out there, he's is easily pushed around and outmuscled, in coverage theres nothing special, instincts average at best, over pursues quite often IMO, think people are just in love with his highlights tbh.

When he does make a quick read he can look special, but that seems few and far in between IMO.

I'm against drafting any player at any position in the first round if the player is undersized, but especially linebacker. I just don't see how you confidently draft undersized linebackers in the 1st rnd. I don't think he's a big upgrade over Jenkins or Wheeler either, he actually reminds me a lot of Wheeler.

And tbh, I think its completely crazy to out him in the 1st rnd.
I'd like Lee or Cooks over him in a heartbeat.

 

[hoops]

i'll bet money that shazier is still on the board come pick 19...if miami wants him he'll be there...i wouldn't do it

 

[Phinsfan93]

i'll bet money that shazier is still on the board come pick 19...if miami wants him he'll be there...i wouldn't do it

Yup. I'm a Shazier stan but he isn't that run-stopping LB we need.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

I do not want one of the top lbs in this draft, I do not think either is as good as Lee. Everyone on here love Lee, 3 years ago and 2 years ago. This year some injuries and a bad QB and no one wants him. I think we'd be lucky if Lee even makes it to us. The media gets tired of players who have been good for a long time unless their name is Andrew Luck. Lee is a crazy talent. Him and Wallace would be fantastic.

 

[hoops]

if i'm gonna take a lb this year for the 43 in the top 20 i'm gonna take mosley cause of the instincts...he's got em...chance i take that he may be a product or at least a partial product of the talent around him at bama...and while i think he may be better suited to play wolb i do feel he can play mike if need be...and i do think he's a 3 down lb in the pros...can cover and run

any lb for miami in the top 20 it's mosley provided the medical checks out if i was gonna take one that high...no doubt in my mind he'd be the most instinctual backer in this core from the day he walked in the building...he reads keys and dx's things well

but this isn't luke kuechly level guy either...his instincts aren't that level...again though that medical has got to check out...this team can't draft anymore freaking damaged goods...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I don't mind Gil Brandt continuing to provide his opinion. Besides, the little white ball doesn't travel very far when you are 80 years old. Strength goes first and that robs from swing speed. Unless the golfer is very skilled throughout his game the lack of distance totally changes the way around the course. Lots of guys can't handle it, and are too embarrassed to play from the senior tees or the red tees.

Anyway, I'm not worried about Tavon Austin. We make excuses galore for our picks who never made it onto the field. Austin actually caught 40 passes with a half dozen total touchdowns, most of them game break fashion. I don't remember the Rams with dominant quarterbacking.

I have to be true to myself and maintain a very high opinion of Kyle Van Noy. If somebody had told me a year ago that the Dolphins would pick 19th in 2014 and Van Noy would be sitting there, I would have laughed at all the ignorant teams that bypassed him. As always I don't care about all the excuses to use recent indications to come up with the wrong conclusion.

Maybe 80% of the time if someone's rating slips dramatically from one season to the next I prefer the early version, unless it's someone I didn't like from the beginning, like Taylor Mays.

Here's one version from immediately following last year's draft. You'll notice the guys who are ranked radically different than today, like Van Noy going 7th. This type of thing always reminds me of preseason ratings in college sports. The simplistic nutcases always fixate on the handful of cases in which the rating is obviously wrong, like a Top 10 team that loses several games early. Meanwhile, you are idiotically forfeiting all the value from the examples in which the early indications were remarkably astute. In situations like this many guys who are rated low now will play back toward their rating from a year ago.

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013/04/2014-nfl-mock-draft-way-too-early-predictions.html

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I'm not sold of shazier at all. He's listed at 235 but during the season he looks closer to 220's, just looks very small and undersized out there, he's is easily pushed around and outmuscled, in coverage theres nothing special, instincts average at best, over pursues quite often IMO, think people are just in love with his highlights tbh.

When he does make a quick read he can look special, but that seems few and far in between IMO.

I'm against drafting any player at any position in the first round if the player is undersized, but especially linebacker. I just don't see how you confidently draft undersized linebackers in the 1st rnd. I don't think he's a big upgrade over Jenkins or Wheeler either, he actually reminds me a lot of Wheeler.

And tbh, I think its completely crazy to out him in the 1st rnd.
I'd like Lee or Cooks over him in a heartbeat.

I'm just curious as to how a LB who rarely ("few and far between") makes the right read ends up with 102 solo tackles (btw, that's as many as Kuechly had during his junior season) and 23.5 TFL. If you compare Shazier's junior season to any LB's over the last 10 years, he holds his own with ANY of them. Does he overrun the occasional play? Yes. So does/did every LB who has ever played. Does he sometimes get caught up with an O-lineman? Yes. Ditto. I haven't seen a LB who is better at shooting the gap than Shazier in a long time. I've said it before, but he's Seau like in that regard. You're also not going to find many LB's who can come from the other side of the field and stop Melvin Gordon in a dead sprint. As a sophomore (first full season as a LB HS or college), he had 10 passes defensed and 1 INT (which he returned for a TD). That's 2 more passes defensed than Clinton-Dix and Pryor had combined in 2013.

If Shazier makes it to Miami, multiple teams shat the bed. You don't get a guy this versatile, this athletic, this productive, and this clean at 19. And in regard to his weight. He weighed in at the combine at 237 (and his pro day, I believe), and he jumped 42 inches and ran a 4.36. Mosley weighed in at the combine at 234. He also said he felt he could easily carry 10 more lbs. Whether or not you believe that is up to you, but he'll be plenty big, and he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 athletes at his position the day he steps on to an NFL field.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

I don't mind Gil Brandt continuing to provide his opinion. Besides, the little white ball doesn't travel very far when you are 80 years old. Strength goes first and that robs from swing speed. Unless the golfer is very skilled throughout his game the lack of distance totally changes the way around the course. Lots of guys can't handle it, and are too embarrassed to play from the senior tees or the red tees.

Anyway, I'm not worried about Tavon Austin. We make excuses galore for our picks who never made it onto the field. Austin actually caught 40 passes with a half dozen total touchdowns, most of them game break fashion. I don't remember the Rams with dominant quarterbacking.

I have to be true to myself and maintain a very high opinion of Kyle Van Noy. If somebody had told me a year ago that the Dolphins would pick 19th in 2014 and Van Noy would be sitting there, I would have laughed at all the ignorant teams that bypassed him. As always I don't care about all the excuses to use recent indications to come up with the wrong conclusion.

Maybe 80% of the time if someone's rating slips dramatically from one season to the next I prefer the early version, unless it's someone I didn't like from the beginning, like Taylor Mays.

Here's one version from immediately following last year's draft. You'll notice the guys who are ranked radically different than today, like Van Noy going 7th. This type of thing always reminds me of preseason ratings in college sports. The simplistic nutcases always fixate on the handful of cases in which the rating is obviously wrong, like a Top 10 team that loses several games early. Meanwhile, you are idiotically forfeiting all the value from the examples in which the early indications were remarkably astute. In situations like this many guys who are rated low now will play back toward their rating from a year ago.

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2013/04/2014-nfl-mock-draft-way-too-early-predictions.html

Your old mock shows me exactly what I thought it would. Lee really high up. If that guy gets to 19 we should do a dance and make the pick.

 

[xXwarXx]

Total tackles is hardly a stat dependent on one players instincts or a window into what he will do in the NFL. And do not compare him to kuechly, thats just ridiculous.

He's undersized
Bad instincts IMO, and in many scouting reports
Constantly over pursues
Can't shed a block for his life
Doesn't show anything special in coverage
No physicality

Everyone talks about how "special" shazier is, but almost never hear anyone say what he's actually good at. Just, OMG he's so explosive.

 

[spiketex]

I'm just curious as to how a LB who rarely ("few and far between") makes the right read ends up with 102 solo tackles (btw, that's as many as Kuechly had during his junior season) and 23.5 TFL. If you compare Shazier's junior season to any LB's over the last 10 years, he holds his own with ANY of them. Does he overrun the occasional play? Yes. So does/did every LB who has ever played. Does he sometimes get caught up with an O-lineman? Yes. Ditto. I haven't seen a LB who is better at shooting the gap than Shazier in a long time. I've said it before, but he's Seau like in that regard. You're also not going to find many LB's who can come from the other side of the field and stop Melvin Gordon in a dead sprint. As a sophomore (first full season as a LB HS or college), he had 10 passes defensed and 1 INT (which he returned for a TD). That's 2 more passes defensed than Clinton-Dix and Pryor had combined in 2013.

If Shazier makes it to Miami, multiple teams shat the bed. You don't get a guy this versatile, this athletic, this productive, and this clean at 19. And in regard to his weight. He weighed in at the combine at 237 (and his pro day, I believe), and he jumped 42 inches and ran a 4.36. Mosley weighed in at the combine at 234. He also said he felt he could easily carry 10 more lbs. Whether or not you believe that is up to you, but he'll be plenty big, and he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 athletes at his position the day he steps on to an NFL field.

J-off-her-doll - Your logic is good and Shazier will probably be on the board at #19. He does appear light compared to Mosely, despite what the official weight records (maybe he just has very dense heavy bones). However, fixing our LB problem isn't our biggest problem. O-line is definitely our biggest need and the risk averse GM has to prioritize. This is actually the year that we could do with the extra draft picks because of the Draft depth in several needy positions.
We have lots of good draft options and there will be some good players who become available because other teams reach for specific needs.

 

[fishbanger]

The two poorest areas last year were OL and Lbs. Therefore dont be surprised we take a BPA LB in the first. Philbin does not believe in drafting WRs in First round. Look at Green Bay history of drafting WRs. None 1st Round.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Total tackles is hardly a stat dependent on one players instincts or a window into what he will do in the NFL. And do not compare him to kuechly, thats just ridiculous.

He's undersized
Bad instincts IMO, and in many scouting reports
Constantly over pursues
Can't shed a block for his life
Doesn't show anything special in coverage
No physicality

Everyone talks about how "special" shazier is, but almost never hear anyone say what he's actually good at. Just, OMG he's so explosive.

If you don't think 102 SOLO tackles is impressive, we're not going to agree on much.

I disagree with all of your trait evaluations to varying degrees.

Look at the combine weights of the best 4-3 OLB's and 3-4 ILB's over the last 10 seasons. He's bigger than many of the best, and even if you go back to Ray Lewis, he entered the NFL at right around 240. He's bigger than guys like Timmons, Washington, David.

He has elite instincts around the LOS. As I said, he's one of the best LB's at shooting the gap I've ever seen. His instincts in space are a plus, but they're not as good. As a total package, his instincts are very good. And given his limited time at LB, there's still room for growth in that area.

It's a huge exaggeration to say that he constantly over pursues. A player that makes 23.5 TFL is going to do it from time to time, and he does from time to time. But he makes the right read much more often than the wrong read. Again, hard to get 102 solo tackles (144 total, btw) when you're constantly guessing wrong.

For a WLB, he's great at shedding blocks. You're not asking him to line up over the TE. But Shazier dealt with more O-lineman than any WLB that I can remember, and he was very productive in games where he was forced to deal with O-linemen play after play (see Michigan State).

He had 10 PBU's as a Sophomore in addition to a pick-6. He played more around the LOS as a junior, but he can cover (especially in man), and he has crazy range. And if he's man on your RB, you better get that RB into a pattern, because he'll kill your QB.

To say that he shows no physicality . . . how much have you watched? He's a violent LB.

If you're paying attention (like to the post I just made), you'll read what he does well. Again, he has elite instincts around the LOS. Shoots gaps as well as anyone. He has the most insane closing speed I've ever seen from a LB. He can be playing 5 yards off the RB in man coverage, and in the blink of an eye, he's hitting the QB. He makes driving killing plays (7 sacks, 23.5 TFL, 4 FF), and he makes big-play-saving plays (102) solo tackles. His range is unreal.

Your description fits a collegiate LB barely making it. I'm doing my best, but I can't think of another season where a player had 20+ TFL and 100+ solo tackles. If someone knows the list off hand or has access to it, I'd be interested in knowing its other members.

I know he's no Bishop Sankey, but give the guy a break.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I watched that program on the 1974 NFL Draft on NFL Network. There were some good segments. The move to spring in the mid '70s really exploded the interest in the draft. Those months of intrigue opened the door for draftniks like the Marasco brothers at Pro Football Weekly, and independent guys like Palmer Hughes and Jerry Jones (not the same guy). I started purchasing their books every year.

Then suddenly, perhaps 1978, the Marasco brothers were gone, replaced by a brash heavily accented kid named Joel Buchsbaum. The NFL Network program really butchered it by failing to mention Buchsbaum. He had the highest profile and top level of credibility of any of the early draftniks. Buchsbaum was one one radio show after another leading to the draft. His opinions on certain guys became well known. The other main source during that era was The Sporting News. They did a weekly preview for months leading up to the draft, spotlighting one position per week along with tidbits and rumors. Then they had a huge pre draft issue, just like Pro Football Weekly did.

I can't believe NFL Network ignored the contribution of The Sporting News. They were known as a baseball publication and some of their long term subscribers were irritated that they were covering football so heavily in March and April. But it was justified. Those issues were incredibly anticipated. The information was always slightly different than Pro Football Weekly. There were also some TV programs spotlighting the draft and isolating certain players. I remember one annual program that had one hour long episode on offensive guys and another on defensive players.

It's not as different as advertised these days because there's too much preoccupation with the same handful of guys. There may be exponentially more sources of information but when the vast majority is focused on first round players you're not gaining as much as advertised. In my case I certainly knew more about the players as a whole in 1978 than I do today.

 

[jim1]

I watched that program on the 1974 NFL Draft on NFL Network. There were some good segments. The move to spring in the mid '70s really exploded the interest in the draft. Those months of intrigue opened the door for draftniks like the Marasco brothers at Pro Football Weekly, and independent guys like Palmer Hughes and Jerry Jones (not the same guy). I started purchasing their books every year.

Then suddenly, perhaps 1978, the Marasco brothers were gone, replaced by a brash heavily accented kid named Joel Buchsbaum. The NFL Network program really butchered it by failing to mention Buchsbaum. He had the highest profile and top level of credibility of any of the early draftniks. Buchsbaum was one one radio show after another leading to the draft. His opinions on certain guys became well known. The other main source during that era was The Sporting News. They did a weekly preview for months leading up to the draft, spotlighting one position per week along with tidbits and rumors. Then they had a huge pre draft issue, just like Pro Football Weekly did.

I can't believe NFL Network ignored the contribution of The Sporting News. They were known as a baseball publication and some of their long term subscribers were irritated that they were covering football so heavily in March and April. But it was justified. Those issues were incredibly anticipated. The information was always slightly different than Pro Football Weekly. There were also some TV programs spotlighting the draft and isolating certain players. I remember one annual program that had one hour long episode on offensive guys and another on defensive players.

It's not as different as advertised these days because there's too much preoccupation with the same handful of guys. There may be exponentially more sources of information but when the vast majority is focused on first round players you're not gaining as much as advertised. In my case I certainly knew more about the players as a whole in 1978 than I do today.

Buchsbaum was my favorite, and in my opinion the best. I always like to see him mentioned because history has kind of forgotten him.