So you want to draft a WR in the 1st round eh?

[Jimmy James]

I am very wary of a guy who bursts into the 1st round based on what he did at the Combine like Chad Jackson did. All of a sudden he's a top 15 pick and yet he's done it for one year with very misleading stats in a gimmick offense. Drops too many balls, lacks aggression and is a mediocre blocker.

Never mind what you think, Boomer. Let's trust the opinion of the Gator faithful who swear they have never seen a guy like Jackson, just like they did last time when the guy's name was Gaffney.

It's sad, really.

 

[Boomer]

Why do you post such an incomplete list?? Why are you only posting the underachieving WR's???? (and in which case, why in the world is Andre Johnson on the list??)

Here is a complete list.......and I went back to 1995 so we have a full 10 drafts to look at (I didn't conviently set the cut-off before perhaps the best WR class in history, 1996).

IMO, the players in bold are not busts based off of where they were drafted:


1995
4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado
8 Joey Galloway WR Ohio State
10 J.J. Stokes WR UCLA

1996
1 Keyshawn Johnson WR Southern California
7 Terry Glenn WR Ohio State
18 Eddie Kennison WR Louisiana State
19 Marvin Harrison WR Syracuse
24 Eric Moulds WR Mississippi State

1997
7 Ike Hilliard WR Florida
15 Yatil Green WR Miami
16 Reidel Anthony WR Florida
27 Rae Carruth WR Colorado

1998
16 Kevin Dyson WR Utah
21 Randy Moss WR Marshall
30 Marcus Nash WR Tennessee

1999
6 Torry Holt WR North Carolina State
8 David Boston WR Ohio State
13 Troy Edwards WR Louisiana Tech

2000
4 Peter Warrick WR Florida State
8 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State
10 Travis Taylor WR Florida
21 Sylvester Morris WR Jackson State
29 R. Jay Soward WR Southern California

2001
8 David Terrell WR Michigan
9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State
15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson
16 Santana Moss WR Miami
25 Freddie Mitchell WR UCLA
30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami

2002
13 Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
20 Javon Walker WR Florida State

2003
2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State
3 Andre Johnson WR Miami
17 Bryant Johnson WR Penn State

2004
3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh
7 Roy Williams WR Texas
9 Reggie Williams WR Washington
13 Lee Evans WR Wisconsin
15 Michael Clayton WR Louisiana State
29 Michael Jenkins WR Ohio State
31 Rashaun Woods WR Oklahoma State

note: it's still too early on the 2004 guys, but looking at that list, the only guy I wouldn't really want on thePhins right now is Reggie Williams.

And Rashaun Woods, but nice post.

 

[burger13]

i'll bet RB, LB, DT, CB have a 50/50 chance of succeeding

QB, WR and DE I give a 30/70 chance of succeeding

it's just an general estimate

I don't know how you can look at that list and be comfortable

I also think that the lack of WR's in the draft is inflating the value of these 2 guys

WR is one of the least of our needs, but people tend to get a woody over the skill positions

by my numbers......WR has about a 55% success rate....of course it is VERY subjective what you want to call success.

example - you somehow feel that Charles Rogers is not a bust....but Andre Johnson is. You also feel that Ike Hilliard is a bust, despite the fact that he was a 6 year starter for the Giants who has almost 5,000 career receiving yards.

I'm gonna look at RB's now, since you seem to think that their success rate will be greater.

 

[burger13]

And Rashaun Woods, but nice post.

yeah I guess you're right.....I gues I just still have a soft spot for him from watching him in college.

anyway, as for the RB's - of the 28 drafted between 1995 and 2003, 14 were busts and 14 weren't:

BUSTS
1995-1 Ki-Jana Carter RB Penn State
1995-17 Tyrone Wheatley RB Michigan
1995-18 Napoleon Kaufman RB Washington
1995-19 James Stewart RB Tennessee
1995-21 Rashaan Salaam RB Colorado
1996-6 Lawrence Phillips RB Nebraska
1996-8 Tim Biakabutuka RB Michigan
1998-5 Curtis Enis RB Penn State
1998-18 Robert Edwards RB Georgia
1999-29 John Avery RB Mississippi
2000-11 Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin
2001-31 Trung Canidate RB Arizona
2001-27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin
2002-16 William Green RB Boston College

NOT BUSTS
1996-14 Eddie George RB Ohio State
1997-12 Warrick Dunn RB Florida State
1997-23 Antowain Smith RB Houston
1998-9 Fred Taylor RB Florida
1999-4 Edgerrin James RB Miami
1999-5 Ricky Williams RB Texas
2000-5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee
2000-7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia
2000-19 Shaun Alexander RB Alabama
2001-5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian
2001-23 Deuce McAllister RB Mississippi
2002-18 T.J. Duckett RB Michigan State
2003-23 Willis McGahee RB Miami
2003-27 Larry Johnson RB Penn State


That's a 50% success rate as you thought, but less than what I got for WR's.

 

[Bowl_Bound]

Santonio Holmes is a 4.2 guy that gets in and out of his breaks in a hurry.

You like him for us in the first round?

 

[Motion]

88 catches in a gimmick offense at 10 yards a reception. That tells more of a story. You're a Florida fan, it's your job to sell the Gator boys. Where's the aggression in going for the ball, where's the willingness to block down the field, how come he's shown up essentially for the first time in 2005 after what, 29 catches a year before. And the Chris Leak argument doesn't compare to say Moss's argument as Leak, despite some struggles last year is a 3 year starter who's played with Jackson since he arrived.

Yeah 88 catches in a gimmick offense thats based on short slants. Yeah I'm a Florida fan and your a FSU fan, same difference in bias. Yeah he and Leak have played together in 3 completely different offensive system, thats great for consistencey. Aggression in going for the ball? 90% of his catches were across the middle knowing he's about to be nailed. I refuse to be one of the sheep on this topic.

 

[Motion]

Never mind what you think, Boomer. Let's trust the opinion of the Gator faithful who swear they have never seen a guy like Jackson, just like they did last time when the guy's name was Gaffney.

It's sad, really.

I could careless who you trust. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating my opinion like everyone else. The fact that you need to talk down to people on an internet message board is whats sad.

 

[Jimmy James]

I could careless who you trust. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating my opinion like everyone else. The fact that you need to talk down to people on an internet message board is whats sad.

Motion doth protest too much.

Hit a little too close to home there, buddy?

 

[Motion]

Motion doth protest too much.

Hit a little too close to home there, buddy?

Not at all. :wink:

 

[BlueFin]

Never mind what you think, Boomer. Let's trust the opinion of the Gator faithful who swear they have never seen a guy like Jackson, just like they did last time when the guy's name was Gaffney.

It's sad, really.

First of all Jimmy James, no one's opinion on here is any more valuable than anyone elses, I don't care if Mel Kiper says Chad Jackson is the best receiver in this draft (which apparently he must think since he has him being the first WR off the board in his most recent mock)....it still doesn't neccesarily make him right, and that goes for any other acclaimed expert, or self proclaimed expert as well.

Second, past UF receivers who have succeeded or failed have absolutely nothing to do with a current one when it comes to predicting his prospects as an NFL receiver....he could be Wes Chandler or he could be Ike Hillard.

I personally think he's way above most of the recent UF wideouts as a prospect.

 

[nick1]

Jackson has good hands, great speed, is an excellant route runner and has good size. WRs in the past 1st rounds may have been busts but I think Moss and Jackson will both be huge booms out of this draft

 

[Boomer]

You like him for us in the first round?

I think he's a very strong possibility. You watch him move, the separation he gets, the hips and shoulders selling the fakes, but most importantly for our offense, the blocking ability. I think he's a decent shout to be the pick. But then I also think Jason Allen, Tye Hill, Donte Whitner, Bobby Carpenter, Chad Greenway, Ernie Sims, Manny Lawson, etc etc etc are also strong possibilities.

This draft has me vexed.

 

[Boomer]

Yeah 88 catches in a gimmick offense thats based on short slants. Yeah I'm a Florida fan and your a FSU fan, same difference in bias. Yeah he and Leak have played together in 3 completely different offensive system, thats great for consistencey. Aggression in going for the ball? 90% of his catches were across the middle knowing he's about to be nailed. I refuse to be one of the sheep on this topic.

I absolutely salute you for not being a sheep. That's why the draft is so good because all of us differ in opinions on players. It'd be a very boring process if we all agreed. That said, my being an FSU fan really doesn't come into it when I look at the draft. Far from it in fact. I grade out a Cane and a Gator the same way I'd grade out a Nole.

In terms of consistency from a QB, it's still the same passer regardless of the system. Which means the ball comes the same way, he understands the velocity, the ball positioning and after 3 years together, regardless of offensive mindset, they should still be on the same page.

Aggression going for the ball doesn't mean working the middle. It means using your obvious physical tools to outbattle a corner. It means giving up your body when the backs are running your way.

 

[Boomer]

First of all Jimmy James, no one's opinion on here is any more valuable than anyone elses, I don't care if Mel Kiper says Chad Jackson is the best receiver in this draft (which apparently he must think since he has him being the first WR off the board in his most recent mock)....it still doesn't neccesarily make him right, and that goes for any other acclaimed expert, or self proclaimed expert as well.

Second, past UF receivers who have succeeded or failed have absolutely nothing to do with a current one when it comes to predicting his prospects as an NFL receiver....he could be Wes Chandler or he could be Ike Hillard.

I personally think he's way above most of the recent UF wideouts as a prospect.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce my very own internet stalker. Blue Fin likes to follow me round Fin Heaven, arguing the toss against everything I say and loves to bandy about phrases such as 'self proclaimed expert'.

For an individual in their 40's it's pretty sad. But he does it so often, he's almost a part of the family.

 

[Jimmy James]

GUESS THE RECEIVER:

Receiver one:
Positives: Superb concentration on the ball. ... Makes difficult catches in traffic. ... Excels at running underneath routes, but has speed and burst to turn them into long gains. ... Has size and strength to fight off jams at the line. ... Runs precise routes.

Negatives: NFL teams don't know how effective he can be on deep routes because he didn't run many of them in college. ... Must improve blocking technique and develop a more aggressive attitude toward making contact.

Receiver two:
Positives: Solidly built pass catcher with long legs … Very physical with defensive backs, using his hands well to push off to create space … Does a nice job of positioning his body to go up and haul down the pass in traffic … Shows excellent concentration, exploding in his cuts and executing fluid stutter-step moves in his routes … Long strider with explosive acceleration in the open … Has great body control and the ability to make the acrobatic catches … Stays low in and out of his cuts, displaying the separation quickness to consistently go deep … Has superb acceleration and attacks defenders after the catch … Extends and adjusts well going for the ball in traffic … Has the power to drive defenders off when breaking back for the ball … Gets into his routes fluidly, using his quick feet to make sudden moves after the catch.
Negatives: Has toughness going over the middle, but rarely faces up to the defender when blocking … Needs to drop his hips quicker when running patterns … Has great hands, but will double catch at times … Fiesty runner after the catch, but is more of a straight-line type, not showing the shake needed to consistently elude … Has a pair of the smallest hands in college football.