Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Crazysimon, Jun 2, 2012.
Let's go fins!
I hope you win it by week 9
hope you win. wish i had money to throw around
What's the payout? Just double?
You should've just given me that money. Why? Who cares? :d-day:
Never bet with your heart.
Man good luck with that. The fins have been a strange team for along time! They are generally for me at least hard to predict. When you think they should win they tend to lose and when you think they have very little to no chance they tend to win. Over 7.5 games...thats tough and wouldn't surprise me in the least if they did achieve it!
Who did you bet it with?
good luck hope you win
But you gotta bet a long shot now and again if so it might as well be a team from the heart.
Not really, you should bet a long shot when you have proper information. Most betting sites aren't even giving a full 1:1 for over 7.5 wins, so he's not even betting a long shot. I'd bet the under, to be honest. It seems like easy money.
Threw down $5000. I feel good about it. Going to Afghanistan mid season. But It's going to happen.
I like it, you got some stones! I couldn't put that much on something I have no control over. However I think you made a good bet. Good luck.
Congrats in advance on your winnings. :up:
you must not bet to often.
I hope you win.. Everyone can't throw $2,500 on the fins and be like F it..
What bad economy? Please email me what you do..I need some extra cash..LOL
The first hurdle will be to see who's named the starting QB. I think Garrard is your best chance at getting over 7.5 and Moore is a close second, but if Tannehill is named the starter I think we're officially getting ready for next season.
prob should have waited a little longer to see who the qb is.
This. Safe bet you won't be seeing that money again.
Going at least .500 won't be a tough task this season, IMO. I would definitely throw some money on that if I could...and yea I get all that ''bet with your heart'' stuff, but hell Moore led is to 6 wins in the second half of the season. No reason to think he can't do that and a couple more through the season with an easier schedule.
Las Vegas empire is built on suckers pissing their money away.
Good luck bro, I wouldnt be able to handle losing that kind of money on a bet.
Would tell you good luck, but i'm sure you got this bet by a couple games :brewskis:
die hard, hope u win bro
I wonder how often they change the line by a full game or more on these things? like if they change the line to 8.5 you could bet 2500 on the under and have a freeroll to win 5k if we go exactly 8-8.
Dude you are nuts!! But when we go 11-5 you will be the mannnnnnn
I just wish I had an extra $250 to bet!
Very seldom. You either have to guess correctly from the outset -- "taking a lead" -- or get an immediate jump on the line when an unusual situation occurs, like a key injury that will drive the number down, or a major trade that could drive it up. Normally the trades are rumored for several days, at minimum, and the over/under might be taken off the board as a precaution.
My friends and I did get a jump on a number this year -- Cleveland under 6. It's as low as 4.5 now. But the middle is hardly free. We had to pay -120 on the under 6. To play the over 4.5 right now costs a minimum of -130. So you are cutting into potential profit if your initial wager was correct and the "hedge" or "middle" bet loses, i.e. Cleveland wins 4 games or fewer.
I still have no idea why anyone would jump on the Dolphins over 7.5 in the early going. It's not a bargain, by any stretch, and the number figures to go down, if anything. There are already some spots using 7 with juice on the over. To tie up money for 7 months or more you need a theoretical advantage that matches or exceeds your other options for those funds, like simply putting it in a bank. I don't see how Miami over 7.5 offers that type of edge. I guess it sounds cute on message boards among fellow fans.
Here is a link that lists every team and the consensus over/under number and juice. You'll note the Dolphins are 7.5 under forty, which translates to -140 on under 7.5 and +120 on over 7.5. I hope the OP managed +120 or better. Otherwise he's already worse off than anyone who walked into a sportsbook today and decided to bet the Dolphins over.
At far right is the betting trend. It's extremely early, and low volume, but you'll note the trend on Miami is overwhelmingly under -- 95% to 5% over. That's what I mean, no reason to rush. If the widespread instinct is under and you are betting over, it doesn't make a fleck of sense to play now. Let them move it your way.
http://props.scoresandodds.com/sect...ered a Loss)&sporttype=510&startdate=6/4/2012
Didn't check out the site yet but if I was forced to bet on the Dolphins I would bet the under just to take advantage of the line dropping to 6.5 or lower in case tannehill is named the starter or we suffer some big injuries. There is no way its going to move up from 7.5.
It is what it is, a bet. If you're not prepared to loss it then don't bet it. If you're going to bet a long shot might as well be for a team you root for. There are plenty of other ways to win your cash back with better odds and lines.
Good bet. What do you get on the over ?
Not gonna be easy to get to 8 wins..Good luck tho.
Say goodbye to $2500
I'd say its a pretty fair bet....50% chance Miami can finish 8-8 imo
So it looks like I made a huge mistake. I put my young families situation in jeopardy for this team. CRAP. I need things to turn around.
If you considered this as one of the wins when you made the bet, then yes you did make a mistake.
wait... seriously?? i recommend some serious counseling of a multitude of varieties homes.
If you're betting essential family money on football, especially bad bets based on emotional ties to a team, you need help.
They don't call you "Crazy" for nothin'!!1!!
seriously though man, get some help.
I did the exact opposite. Was 5k. I don't see 8 wins.
Jeez, man. Never bet with your heart...especially when it's for thousands of dollars.
On paper the Texans are probably the toughest team on our schedule, besides the two games against New England.
I think we can take TWO from the Bills, and win at least one from the Jets....so that is three wins.
We can get FIVE more wins out of the rest of the games.....Raiders, Cardinals, Bengals, Rams, Colts, Titans, Seahawks, Niners, Jags....looks at the teams in bolds Quarterbacks.
Id think this was hilarious if it werent for (presumably) kids being hurt by your recklessness. I mean, you deserve to lose the cash for making a dumb bet. Its a shame others had to be involved though.
almost never bet with your favorite team if u cant think with head
I hope your family hates you forever.