phins_4_ever
E12 FH Tailgate Gang
[Congrats UK_Fan for N Ireland making the knockout stage. You must be extremely excited. ]
With the expansion to 24 teams I waited for the knockout rounds to open up a thread. With the group stages complete we are set for the 'real soccer games'. A lot of people (fans and officials) were against an expansion. The reason was that the Euro Championship is being watered down. I was opposed to an expansion as well. But I am pleasantly surprised that the 'training partners' gave the top teams a real fight.
Teams like Albania (barely missed the Round of 16), Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Wales, Iceland, Ireland, Hungary gave the elite in European soccer fits. Several teams with first time appearances in the Euro (i.e. Wales, Slovakia, Northern Ireland) and Iceland (first ever appearance at any major tournament). What became the dreaded 3rd place qualification became a saving anchor for some teams with higher aspirations (i.e. Portugal). Teams like Austria and Russia who we expected more from are left to go home.
The surprise appearance of the little guys threw the two brackets in the knockout stage into turmoil. The brackets (8 teams each) were evenly reserved for three 1st place finishers, three runner-up and two 3rd place teams. But with the revolt from below and teams like England and Spain not winning their divisions and Belgium as one of the top favorite relinquishing the group to the 'retirement home of Italy' the two brackets are completely out of proportion.
Bracket 1:
(in parenthesis FIFA ranking; WC = World Cup wins; EC = European Championship wins)
Belgium (#2): 0WC, 0 EC
Portugal (#8):0WC, 0EC; regular appearances at major tournaments
Switzerland (#15): 0WC, 0EC
Hungary (#20): 0WC. 0EC; hasn’t qualified for a major tournament since 1986 (WC) and first appearance at Euro since 1972
Wales (#26): 0WC, 0EC; last major tournament in 1958 (WC). First time ever at UEFA Euro
Northern Ireland (#25): 0WC, 0EC; last major tournament in 1986 (WC). First time ever at UEFA Euro
Croatia (#27): 0WC, 0EC; since becoming independent regular appearances at WC and EC
Poland (#28): 0WC, 0EC; only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] appearance at UEFA Euro
2 top 10 teams
3 top 15 teams
Combined: 0 WC, 0 EC
Bracket 2:
(in parenthesis FIFA ranking; WC = World Cup wins; EC = European Championship wins)
Germany (#4): 4WC (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014), 3EC (1972, 1980, 1996)
Spain (#6): 1WC (2010), 3EC (1964, 2008, 2012); defending champion
England (#11): 1WC (1966), 0EC
Italy (#12): 4WC (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006), 1EC (1968)
France (#17): 1WC (1998), 2EC (1984, 2000)
Slovakia (#24): 0WC, 0EC; 1[SUP]st[/SUP] appearance at UEFA Euro and 2nd major tournament appearance since independence
Ireland (#33): 0WC. 0EC
Iceland (#34): 0WC, 0EC; first ever qualification for a major tournament
This bracket has a stunning combined 21 (!!!!!!) Championships between the top 5 teams.
Combined: 11WC, 10 EC
The two brackets:
Predictions are hard. But in bracket 1 I could see all top 3 teams (Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland) fall in the R16. None of them have played well and none of them are considered tournament teams. Their opponents (Croatia, Poland, Hungary) have played excellent group matches and gotten better over the course of the games.
I could easily see Wales or Northern Ireland (it is a shame that these two teams play in the R16) make a run for the Finals as well as Croatia or Poland.
Advancing to the Quarters: Poland, Croatia, Wales, Belgium
Bracket 1 Quarterfinal: Poland vs Croatia
Croatia has probably played their best game in the group match final vs Spain. I saw the entire game and they gave the defending Champion fits. If not for the last minute goal by the Czech Republic they would have won all their group matches as the only team. Croatia will advance.
Bracket 1 Quarterfinal: Belgium vs Wales
I am not sure why Belgium was named a top favorite this year and why they are actually the #2 seed in the world. Their qualifying group was nothing to brag about. And they struggled at the Euro. Can Wales beat them? You bet they can. They faced each other in the qualifying group B and despite Belgium winning that group and Wales being the runner up Wales did not lose to Belgium (0-0, 1-0). Wales will advance.
Bracket 1 Semifinal: Wales vs Croatia
The Welch will triumph and will move into the final.
**************************************************
Bracket 2?
Holly macaroni. Who to pick? Italy and Spain are struggling mighty. Both lost their final group matches and that game is a recovery game for either team. While I will not count Italy out but I think Spain will continue on.
As much as I like the Cinderella story Iceland I do not see them beating England. They may take them into overtime but I think their summer night dream will end. Germany will have a rough time with Slovakia. Just a few weeks ago Slovakia beat them 3-1 in a Euro tune up game. But experience and having all players aboard Germany should squeak by.
France may just be upset. If Ireland can focus and play disciplined I don't see any reason why they should not beat France. Despite winning their group France struggled big time. 3 of their 4 goals (incl both against Albania) came in the last minute and extra time.
In the Quarters: Germany vs Spain
Germany is not as strong as during the WC in 2014. Several players struggle (Goetze, Ozil) and Mueller just cannot score in the Euro. And that is the crux of the German team. They dominated all three group matches, solid on defense but they have poor success when it comes to scoring. They finally went back to a true #9 (Gomez) who scored the goal against N Ireland but based on chances (shots on goal) it should have been 4-0 or 5-0. If they can solve their scoring problem they will cruise past Spain if not Spain will punish them. Right now I lean towards Germany.
In the Quarters: England vs Ireland
The question is how much does Ireland will have left in the tank. I can see a low scoring affair with OT and penalty kicks. It probably will be much more interesting to see those two rivals fan bases sing and dance the entire game. Oh yea. I think England will win in penalty kicks.
Semifinal in Bracket 2 Germany vs England
We have to face reality here. Since that no-goal which was called a goal in 1966 Germany has become England's boogeyman/demon/nightmare which includes games from domination to penalty kicks to goals-being-called-no-goals. This year is probably England's best chance to stop that nightmare. I don't think it will happen.
**************************************************
Final: Wales vs Germany
Can/Could Wales beat Germany?
History has shown that any team could beat another in the final. 1992 Danish Dynamite came in ranked #20 and played some refreshing soccer and beat Germany (clearly the favorite coming of a WC Championship in 1990).
In 2004 underdog Greece ranked #40 coming into the tournament became a all-defense team under a German coach (Ribbeck). Three 1-0 victories (Quarter, Semi, Final) was enough to stun favorite and host Portugal.
But history also shows that this does not happen too often. Germany's experience and talent throughout the roster (incl bench players) will make the difference.
Champion: Germany
With the expansion to 24 teams I waited for the knockout rounds to open up a thread. With the group stages complete we are set for the 'real soccer games'. A lot of people (fans and officials) were against an expansion. The reason was that the Euro Championship is being watered down. I was opposed to an expansion as well. But I am pleasantly surprised that the 'training partners' gave the top teams a real fight.
Teams like Albania (barely missed the Round of 16), Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Wales, Iceland, Ireland, Hungary gave the elite in European soccer fits. Several teams with first time appearances in the Euro (i.e. Wales, Slovakia, Northern Ireland) and Iceland (first ever appearance at any major tournament). What became the dreaded 3rd place qualification became a saving anchor for some teams with higher aspirations (i.e. Portugal). Teams like Austria and Russia who we expected more from are left to go home.
The surprise appearance of the little guys threw the two brackets in the knockout stage into turmoil. The brackets (8 teams each) were evenly reserved for three 1st place finishers, three runner-up and two 3rd place teams. But with the revolt from below and teams like England and Spain not winning their divisions and Belgium as one of the top favorite relinquishing the group to the 'retirement home of Italy' the two brackets are completely out of proportion.
Bracket 1:
(in parenthesis FIFA ranking; WC = World Cup wins; EC = European Championship wins)
Belgium (#2): 0WC, 0 EC
Portugal (#8):0WC, 0EC; regular appearances at major tournaments
Switzerland (#15): 0WC, 0EC
Hungary (#20): 0WC. 0EC; hasn’t qualified for a major tournament since 1986 (WC) and first appearance at Euro since 1972
Wales (#26): 0WC, 0EC; last major tournament in 1958 (WC). First time ever at UEFA Euro
Northern Ireland (#25): 0WC, 0EC; last major tournament in 1986 (WC). First time ever at UEFA Euro
Croatia (#27): 0WC, 0EC; since becoming independent regular appearances at WC and EC
Poland (#28): 0WC, 0EC; only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] appearance at UEFA Euro
2 top 10 teams
3 top 15 teams
Combined: 0 WC, 0 EC
Bracket 2:
(in parenthesis FIFA ranking; WC = World Cup wins; EC = European Championship wins)
Germany (#4): 4WC (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014), 3EC (1972, 1980, 1996)
Spain (#6): 1WC (2010), 3EC (1964, 2008, 2012); defending champion
England (#11): 1WC (1966), 0EC
Italy (#12): 4WC (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006), 1EC (1968)
France (#17): 1WC (1998), 2EC (1984, 2000)
Slovakia (#24): 0WC, 0EC; 1[SUP]st[/SUP] appearance at UEFA Euro and 2nd major tournament appearance since independence
Ireland (#33): 0WC. 0EC
Iceland (#34): 0WC, 0EC; first ever qualification for a major tournament
This bracket has a stunning combined 21 (!!!!!!) Championships between the top 5 teams.
Combined: 11WC, 10 EC
The two brackets:
Predictions are hard. But in bracket 1 I could see all top 3 teams (Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland) fall in the R16. None of them have played well and none of them are considered tournament teams. Their opponents (Croatia, Poland, Hungary) have played excellent group matches and gotten better over the course of the games.
I could easily see Wales or Northern Ireland (it is a shame that these two teams play in the R16) make a run for the Finals as well as Croatia or Poland.
Advancing to the Quarters: Poland, Croatia, Wales, Belgium
Bracket 1 Quarterfinal: Poland vs Croatia
Croatia has probably played their best game in the group match final vs Spain. I saw the entire game and they gave the defending Champion fits. If not for the last minute goal by the Czech Republic they would have won all their group matches as the only team. Croatia will advance.
Bracket 1 Quarterfinal: Belgium vs Wales
I am not sure why Belgium was named a top favorite this year and why they are actually the #2 seed in the world. Their qualifying group was nothing to brag about. And they struggled at the Euro. Can Wales beat them? You bet they can. They faced each other in the qualifying group B and despite Belgium winning that group and Wales being the runner up Wales did not lose to Belgium (0-0, 1-0). Wales will advance.
Bracket 1 Semifinal: Wales vs Croatia
The Welch will triumph and will move into the final.
**************************************************
Bracket 2?
Holly macaroni. Who to pick? Italy and Spain are struggling mighty. Both lost their final group matches and that game is a recovery game for either team. While I will not count Italy out but I think Spain will continue on.
As much as I like the Cinderella story Iceland I do not see them beating England. They may take them into overtime but I think their summer night dream will end. Germany will have a rough time with Slovakia. Just a few weeks ago Slovakia beat them 3-1 in a Euro tune up game. But experience and having all players aboard Germany should squeak by.
France may just be upset. If Ireland can focus and play disciplined I don't see any reason why they should not beat France. Despite winning their group France struggled big time. 3 of their 4 goals (incl both against Albania) came in the last minute and extra time.
In the Quarters: Germany vs Spain
Germany is not as strong as during the WC in 2014. Several players struggle (Goetze, Ozil) and Mueller just cannot score in the Euro. And that is the crux of the German team. They dominated all three group matches, solid on defense but they have poor success when it comes to scoring. They finally went back to a true #9 (Gomez) who scored the goal against N Ireland but based on chances (shots on goal) it should have been 4-0 or 5-0. If they can solve their scoring problem they will cruise past Spain if not Spain will punish them. Right now I lean towards Germany.
In the Quarters: England vs Ireland
The question is how much does Ireland will have left in the tank. I can see a low scoring affair with OT and penalty kicks. It probably will be much more interesting to see those two rivals fan bases sing and dance the entire game. Oh yea. I think England will win in penalty kicks.
Semifinal in Bracket 2 Germany vs England
We have to face reality here. Since that no-goal which was called a goal in 1966 Germany has become England's boogeyman/demon/nightmare which includes games from domination to penalty kicks to goals-being-called-no-goals. This year is probably England's best chance to stop that nightmare. I don't think it will happen.
**************************************************
Final: Wales vs Germany
Can/Could Wales beat Germany?
History has shown that any team could beat another in the final. 1992 Danish Dynamite came in ranked #20 and played some refreshing soccer and beat Germany (clearly the favorite coming of a WC Championship in 1990).
In 2004 underdog Greece ranked #40 coming into the tournament became a all-defense team under a German coach (Ribbeck). Three 1-0 victories (Quarter, Semi, Final) was enough to stun favorite and host Portugal.
But history also shows that this does not happen too often. Germany's experience and talent throughout the roster (incl bench players) will make the difference.
Champion: Germany