After hearing news that Percy Harvin wants out of Minnisota I think our chances just went up a bit more. Wallace will hear about Harvin's situation and he has to consider the fact that if he goes to the vikings the whole situation is murky. In miami its simple, be the undisputed #1 guy and get paid.
If you think about it from Wallace's perspective His options are,
A) go to the team that has current WR turmoil (Vikings) and won't take care of their top guy salary wise. (even if Harvin is the headcase) this leaves a bad impression of Vikes.
B) or, go to the team who knows exactly what role Wallace would play (#1 Reciever) and who just took care of their own (Brian Hartline) with a very fair contract after playing (arguably) well for the team last year.
This coupled with what we already know, id say we are at least moving around the 60 -70 percent range to sign Wallace (assuming he truly is our top target and we are not blowing elaborate smoke screens)
Now if the Pats are truly serious and willing to really bid for his services id say our chances go down alot. but I think they are bluffing (which is the smart move)