There's really no reason Jordan Willis should not be a 1st round pick.
His body is built like a pro. He's 6036 & 255 lbs with 10" hands and a 6'8" wingspan. The wingspan in particular stands out.
There's a lot of work ethic reflected in his build. If you tend to be a healthy skeptic of reports claiming a guy has a stellar work ethic (there are plenty such, and credible ones, for Willis), the body can be confirmation of that. And on that point, it's clear as day.
His character as far as I've heard is beyond reproach. He is noted for being quiet in the locker room, which isn't necessarily a plus, but he was voted this year a Team Captain. He did not expect that, did not lobby for it, and even went into the Coach's office and said he thinks his being voted a Team Captain is a mistake and he's not sure he can do it. He never tried to be a leader, his teammates just saw him that way organically. The best story I've heard about him was in high school in the locker room he was so quiet that his teammates never voted him captain, but then off the field he was voted Student Council President. The best leaders are ones who have enough of an appreciation of what it takes to be a leader to be unsure that they could or should be doing it. Cameron Wake is that way.
Which isn't a coincidence because Cameron Wake is a guy that he studies a lot and models himself after. Which can only be a good thing.
He's fast and athletic. Quick film watch should tell you that much. You didn't necessarily need to see the Senior Bowl practice Catapult data recording him moving faster than RBs and WRs in order to confirm it, but that data was nice. I'm one of a handful of people outside NFL teams receiving the raw copy of that data, so more on that later.
He played Power Five competition and recorded 32.5 TFLs, 21.0 Sacks and 7 Forced Fumbles in his last two seasons at K-State. And 24.5 of those TFLs and 17.5 of those Sacks (and 6 of the Forced Fumbles) were in the 21 games he played against P5 competition.
Yes, his first few steps are his biggest weapon. People talk about it like it's a bad thing. It's a good thing, especially in a system like Miami's where Jim Washburn coaches the DLs incessantly on their get-off and explosiveness off the snap.
I disagree with the characterization that he does it off his first step off the line of scrimmage. Actually his first step off the line and his snap timing could use a little work (which is something Washburn always specialized in, if he sticks around; he's still listed on Miami's website despite all other coach entries being properly updated/deleted). He's explosive, but needs to be more consistent on first step. You see the explosiveness more consistently on his second and third steps, or from a standing start. That's characteristic of a speed player. He's pretty close to having that consistently explosive and well timed first step, definitely does it some of the time. But if you actually help a Jordan Willis to realize his full explosive potential by getting him off the line with a first step the way a Cam Wake gets off the line with his first step, that's where things get a little more interesting. Players make entire Hall of Fame careers off the disadvantage they can force onto blockers by an explosive take-off.
Sidebar. I can think of two examples off the top of my head of first step players who were/are not necessarily fast. One is a defensive tackle in THIS draft, that being Ralph Green of Indiana (who is likely not fast). The other reaches back a bit; Bjoern Werner of Florida State, who made a killer college career off his first step, but couldn't capitalize at the next level because ultimately his first step wasn't indicative of him being a true speed player, which sucks because Ryan Grigson (since fired) stupidly pegged him as an outside linebacker. The hope for Ralphie of course is that as a defensive tackle he doesn't ultimately need to be all that fast, and thus his good first step will help him to have an NFL career. The promising thing for Ralphie that way is that unlike other first step players who were also not fast, like Brian Price or Will Sutton, Ralphie has a lot more length (6033 with 34.5" arms) and it helps him to stay off the carpet whereas those other two were shorter (Price - 6011 w/ 32" arms; Sutton - 6004 w/ 31" arms) and ended up on the ground a whole lot. That makes you want to put Ralphie more in category with the first steps you saw out of a Mike Neal (6030 w/ 33.5" arms) or Earl Mitchell (6016 w/ 33.5" arms). Then again, those two had good first steps in part because they really were very fast for their size (Mitchell - 4.81 at 296 lbs; Neal - 4.87 at 294 lbs). Faster than I think Ralphie will be at 317 lbs. It's tough to say at this time, hence Ralph Green will not be drafted high.
Anyway I digress. I'm seeing this notion that if you defeat Jordan Willis's first step, or his first move, then he's done. I have three immediate thoughts about that, before we even get into higher quality arguments or details:
1. I think that's a bit silly and does not reflect on his tape.
2. It's also dangerously close to the "60 percent of the time, it works every time" cliche.
3. That's what they said about Cameron Wake in 2009, as well.
I do wonder sometimes when I hear these sorts of things about the breadth of tape watch that is being done out by the Senior Bowl practice onlookers (e.g. the Stanford tape from 2016 is the only video of him available on Draft Breakdown). The most common mistake I see from people looking at pass rushers is failure to account for coordinated rush techniques within a defensive scheme (e.g. blitzes, or having one end go shallow while the other goes deep), and failure to account for offensive tendencies. Washburn in his career has been particularly well known for coaching his DLs to modify their techniques week to week based on small details of the upcoming offense's tendencies. Some colleges do this as well.
Regardless, I don't think you have to go looking very far in any given tape of Jordan Willis's to see him being successful on secondary movements:
https://youtu.be/3K9iEPlAvvk?t=401 (Senior Bowl: Second move spin off the initial defeat)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4625 (Senior Bowl: Second move spin to the inside off the outside rush)
https://youtu.be/Llt9NtSGTnw?t=93 (Senior Tape: Second move to the inside, wide rush)
https://youtu.be/Llt9NtSGTnw?t=119 (Senior Tape: Put the blocker on skates after initial speed to power)
https://youtu.be/Llt9NtSGTnw?t=162 (Senior Tape: Fake the outside, go inside on a stunt)
https://youtu.be/Llt9NtSGTnw?t=187 (Senior Tape: Hand fight to the outside after the initial contact)
https://youtu.be/r-JZ7NFZUK8?t=135 (Senior Tape: Fake the outside, go inside on a stunt)
https://youtu.be/r-JZ7NFZUK8?t=346 (Senior Tape: Outside-in against the double team)
https://youtu.be/r-JZ7NFZUK8?t=578 (Senior Tape: Outside-in against the double team)
https://youtu.be/HyTKeDwwncY?t=160 (Senior Tape: Second move to the outside after the initial contact)
https://youtu.be/HyTKeDwwncY?t=213 (Senior Tape: Swim back to the inside after speed rush)
https://youtu.be/HyTKeDwwncY?t=335 (Senior Tape: Put the blocker on skates after the initial speed to power)
https://youtu.be/Fg4X-8fNx0A?t=85 (Senior Tape: Second move to the outside, wide rush)
https://youtu.be/Fg4X-8fNx0A?t=187 (Senior Tape: Second move to the inside, wide rush)
https://youtu.be/Fg4X-8fNx0A?t=213 (Senior Tape: Second move to the inside, wide rush)
https://youtu.be/YSQj2QQS4Xc?t=26 (Junior Tape: Second move to the outside, from a 5-technique)
https://youtu.be/YSQj2QQS4Xc?t=285 (Junior Tape: Second move to the outside, from a 5-technique)
https://youtu.be/YSQj2QQS4Xc?t=483 (Junior Tape: Second move to the outside after an inside move off the snap)
Miami is picking #22 overall. Let's not pretend they're going to have their choice of a bunch of Myles Garretts at that pick. Or at #54 overall for that matter, if that's where Jordan Willis is destined to go. I agree most with Awsi who said that Willis looked good in the Senior Bowl, but that the tackles in the game (on the North and South, really) looked a bit in over their heads.
But this talk among Senior Bowl practice onlookers or whoever is saying it, the talk about Willis being a first step player that is easily defeated if you can keep up with his first step, or him being one-dimensional, etc...I think it's kind of silly. I remember in 1999 when everyone said, coming off a highly disappointing 2.5 sack year, that "the book has been written" on how to block Jason Taylor and that "all you have to do is body him" or some such nonsense. We know how that ended. I also remember 2009 when Cameron Wake was only being used 300 snaps on the year behind the likes of soon-to-be-retired Joey Porter, and some of us were SCREAMING (as early as preseason) that this Wake guy has incredible explosiveness and needs to be playing at least twice as much as he is, but the general group-though insisted Cam Wake is a one-trick pony, that all he has is his first step, etc. The dangers of group-think, I guess. I think the lesson is that players can make entire careers off that ability to explode off the snap and take the outside-edge from a blocker. It deserves some amount of benefit of the doubt, when you see it.
I don't know if Jordan Willis is destined to be Cameron Wake or Jason Taylor. He may be destined to be just another Jack Crawford. But I do think that's the range for him. He's at least a Jack Crawford, possibly more. I'd roll the dice on that if I knew it was a great locker room guy with a stellar work ethic and favorable build.
Here are the relevant snaps from his Senior Bowl where he was asked to be more strictly a wide rusher, speed-to-power guy. Stunting wasn't even allowed, by rule, I think.
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=72 (Senior Bowl: Speed to power, wide rush; Taylor Moton)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=1194 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Taylor Moton)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=1214 (Senior Bowl: Speed to power, wide rush; Taylor Moton)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=1270 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Taylor Moton - Flag Holding)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=1940 (Senior Bowl: Speed to power, wide rush; Zach Banner)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=2137 (Senor Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Zach Banner - Sack/Fumble)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=3288 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Adam Bisnowaty - Sack/Fumble)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4625 (Senior Bowl: Outside to in, wide rush; Julien Davenport)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4647 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Julien Davenport)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4737 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Julien Davenport - QB HAT)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4779 (Senior Bowl: Speed to power, wide rush; Julien Davenport)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4868 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Julien Davenport)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=4916 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Julien Davenport)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=5862 (Senior Bowl: Outside, wide rush; Zach Banner)
https://youtu.be/waUV4_FXNnA?t=5944 (Senior Bowl: Speed to power; Zach Banner)
