With 1st round draft pick the Miami Dolphins will select a guy in this list...

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by MexDolfan, Apr 3, 2013.

  1. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Adam Schefter has announced in his twitter account (@AdamSchefter) a list of players invited to NFL draft: Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Cooper, Sharrif Floyd, Lane Johnson, Ezekial Ansah, Kenny Vaccaro, DJ Fluker, Eric Fisher, Menelik Watson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Xavier Rhodes, Tavon Austin, Margus Hunt, Barkevious Mingo, Dee Milliner.

    With Dolphins requiring to expose new jersey on national TV, there almost certainty Miami will be picking a guy within that list.

    That said this is my analysis on each guy:
    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 987"]

    Prospect name
    Analysis
    Probability

    Bjoern Werner
    A defensive piece that makes sense as pass rusher.
    [TD="align: right"]9.00%[/TD]

    Lane Johnson
    Several draft specialist have mocked him as top 10 pick, so Miami would have to trade up some spots to get him.
    [TD="align: right"]8.50%[/TD]

    Ezekial Ansah
    His lack of experience could lead him to be available and he's a better option than Werner.
    [TD="align: right"]8.00%[/TD]

    Other
    Thinking some BPA on the draft board could be out of the refered list, let's say Tyler Eifert or Star Lotulelei.
    [TD="align: right"]8.00%[/TD]

    Xavier Rhodes
    I think this draft class is deep on DB talent. I gave him some probability because many persons are mocking him as BPA.
    [TD="align: right"]7.00%[/TD]

    Margus Hunt
    I think this is another fine option for pass rush.
    [TD="align: right"]7.00%[/TD]

    Barkevious Mingo
    A fine DE/OLB that would fit on our defensive rotation.
    [TD="align: right"]7.00%[/TD]

    Chance Warmack
    A great value that would fortify our O-line but would no excite fan base.
    [TD="align: right"]7.00%[/TD]

    Desmond Trufant
    I disagree about taking a DB here, there's gonna be similar players in next rounds.
    [TD="align: right"]6.00%[/TD]

    DJ Fluker
    He's the 4th top tackle of the class, and could represent a decent way for filling a need.
    [TD="align: right"]6.00%[/TD]

    Jonathan Cooper
    This could be safety net once Dolphins lost top O-liners.
    [TD="align: right"]5.50%[/TD]

    Kenny Vaccaro
    A baller, but I don't see him as a true upgrade over our young safeties.
    [TD="align: right"]5.00%[/TD]

    Tavon Austin
    Great talent, but a slot receiver should be a priority for lower rounds.
    [TD="align: right"]4.00%[/TD]

    Dee Milliner
    A Utopian option. This is the only DB talent that would justify jumping up into top 6.
    [TD="align: right"]3.00%[/TD]

    Sheldon Richardson
    Great DT, but he's out of my radar as he doesn't look like a NT to me.
    [TD="align: right"]3.00%[/TD]

    Cordarrelle Patterson
    He's a sexy pick but with all free agency additions it looks like a wasted pick.
    [TD="align: right"]2.00%[/TD]

    Sharrif Floyd
    I don't see Miami Dolphins trading up for him and only great fortune would place him available at 12th spot.
    [TD="align: right"]2.00%[/TD]

    Eric Fisher
    For some analysts he's the best tackle and everybody is projecting him at top 5 spots. Like Joeckel he is a long shot.
    [TD="align: right"]1.00%[/TD]

    Luke Joeckel
    Would require a huge effort to jump to 1st overall pick. Pretty unlikely.
    [TD="align: right"]0.50%[/TD]

    Menelik Watson
    This British athlete would be so overdrafted at 12th spot. Only some unknown fact would lead Ireland to pick him.
    [TD="align: right"]0.50%[/TD]

    Eddie Lacy
    It's clear Ireland and crew will add a RB within 2013 class. It's also clear that won't happen at 12th spot.
    [TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

    EJ Manuel
    I don't see Dolphins picking a QB on first round.
    [TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

    Geno Smith
    Like I said, no QB. And this guy is a poor man's version of Ryan Tannehill. NEXT!
    [TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

    Total

    [TD="align: right"]100.00%[/TD]
    [/TABLE]

    I've updated this post adjusting probabilities.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 11, 2013
  2. pb1300

    pb1300 Scout Team

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    I think that list is subject to change. Schefter said as of right now, that was the list. But, if they were to choose one of those players, I am either trading up for LJ, or drafting Austin. LJ is my #1, but I still would like to see them go after Eifert before Austin.
     
  3. Phins117

    Phins117 A True Fan

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    Not a lineman... CB or DE or TE or WR. Lineman will def be 2nd pick.
     
  4. PolitePolite

    PolitePolite Well-Known Member

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    There is no way that the team would limit themselves to those guys. Absolutely no way. Not saying they won't draft any of them, but if they get an amazing offer to trade down get get some crazy high draft picks for next year, they may take it. Having a guy come up and hold up the jersey isn't worth passing up on a better trade/player who isn't there. That is ridiculous.
     
  5. MadDog 88

    MadDog 88 Smoke 'em Jay Finheaven VIP

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    Miami is not going to select somebody just to unveil a new jersey. If they pick someone in attendance it's because he is at the top of their board.
     
  6. TealAttack13

    TealAttack13 A True Fan

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    If we can trade up, Milliner. If not, Rhodes.
     
  7. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP

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    nah.. the entire list isnt first rounders and that doesnt even include Eifert.
     
  8. Swantoon

    Swantoon A True Fan

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    That's 146.5%
     
  9. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Seasoned Veteran

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    i am not trading up for anyone .... i stay at 12, and if our targeets are all gone - then try and fall back a few slots to pick up at least 1 other day 2 pick. then maybe parlay our picks into 5 top 64 picks (later RD1 and 4 RD 2 picks) ...
     
  10. ikkonz

    ikkonz Active Member

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    Miami will (hopefully) choose the best player for their team out there, not just pick someone so they can show off the new jersey. There'll be plenty of time to market the new jersey during the preseason and season. Plus, its not like a ton of people are gonna buy the rookie's jersey because it looks cool if we draft a OT or CB or whatever. Most people buy position players' jerseys.
     
  11. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Don't discount the merchandise impact of this.

    Team can make whatever special event aside of Draft event, but being a National TV event it's critical for our FO to expose the new jersey at Radio Music Hall.

    That's for the business side of it, the sports side agrees about picking BPA.
     
  12. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Yeah I was hurried by the time i was calculating probabilities.

    Give me some minutes to fix it.

    10:28 AM DONE!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 3, 2013
  13. foozool13

    foozool13 #12 #13 #23 #29 #54 #99 Donator

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    lmao at the thought that Miami makes a pick to get the jersey on TV.
     
  14. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    It's a pretty comprehensive list, but a couple of those guys could be 2nd rounders like Hunt. Looking at Miami's biggest weaknesses as of now it's CB opposite Grimes and offensive tackle. The Dolphins need to find some offensive guards as well to develop behind Igcognito and Louis, who are both on 1-year contracts. And, we can't forget pass rusher which could be the team's #1 target.
     
  15. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think MexDolfan is probably right about the thread premise, though. They do want to unveil the new jersey at the draft. How are the invites sent out?
     
  16. flynryan15

    flynryan15 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    If they wanted a buzz they should have had Wallace wear it at his presser! Because depending on who we draft the excitement of a New Jersey might not out weigh who is holding it up!
     
  17. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    First round pick will be used to expose new jersey. They want a signature player that could be linked to the new image.

    That said Ireland expressed that having 11 draft picks will serve to move in every direction and have power to select 6-7 players.

    Aside of any football strategy, Ireland is looking for a new NT, because both nose tackles are in contract years and it's time to prepare the future keystone for the defense.
    The reasoning behind this is Ireland will have a nasty time dealing contract extensions for both guys. Big Paul & Randy Starks will be open to hear what Dolphins put over the table, but knowing Patriots should be willing to part ways with Wilfork on 2014 and some other teams could be desperate for a proven NT. So it could be a bless to trade up and pick Star Lotulelei, if he's available at somewhere close to 10th spot.

    Other sexy pick could be Tyler Eifert, but it's a matter of over-drafting and full-fitting in the offensive scheme. I mean Eifert is viewed as a younger version of Dustin Keller, a TE with marvelous hands and routes, but undeveloped blocking techniques. Other TE in this class have better blocking and could be closer to Philbin's designs.

    Finally, pass rusher is a need and at this point of the draft, there should be amazing quality on different styles, so it would require extensive examination and evaluation but sounds like the safest pick.

    ---------- Post added at 10:52 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:52 AM ----------

    Merchandise wasn't ready.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 3, 2013
  18. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Both hugest needs RT & CB will be filled later, you don't need to hurry about it on first round, this draft class offers great depth on both positions and Dolphins have plenty of draft picks to trade up in case they wanted.
     
  19. fanfin

    fanfin A True Fan

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    I don't think there 1st round pick is on your list
     
  20. ticophin

    ticophin Starter Donator

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    TE is a HUGE need, remember, Fasano isn't on the team anymore, and I would cut Egnew and Mastrud tomorrow...Keller? He might be gone next year. I'd target a potential pro-bowler in Eifert, but would also target a better blocking TE in a later round...Eifert would impact our offense in ways that no other player on the board can, before, or after we pick. Best TE on the Draft, period!!
     
  21. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    There's a team in charge of the event and they inquire about top prospects, they send invitations and as kids can accept/decline invitations, the list is somehow growing as draft day gets closer.
    By this time there are few guys still deciding.

    Manti Te'o declined, while Zach Ertz is undecided.

    Nobody want's to be in the green room without being selected.
     
  22. NRA

    NRA Roll Gypsy Roll

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    if the finz are BENT on drafting O-LINE, and they are trading up, FISHER is the only choice.

    i think he is better than joeckel and one of the best LT prospects in a long time. the guy is wicked fast off the ball and has a mean pop at the point. he has the ability to go down as one of the best pass blocking lt's to ever play the game.

    he is the ONLY tackle i would not get furious over if we got him.

    ANYONE WHO THINKS that AUSTIN is nothing but a slot receiver is TOTALLY misinformed and hasnt followed his college career. he can play the outside in the nfl. he is NO devon bess who isnt fast or quick enough for the outside. and jamming austin on the line is going to be almost impossible for big db's. his leap ability was OFF THE CHARTS at the combine and wont have a problem with big cb's down field.

    he will put gibson or bess on the bench right away. and as much as i love hartline, austin could bench him to.

    this is not TEDD GINN OR BESS or another of the long line of speed only, smaller players. not at all. and those who have watched him know this. his wr routes are exellent, big time hands and something ginn never had and was a BIG knock on him coming out and many people didnt like the pic that early because of THAT FACT!! he didnt have the game speed that he had on the track. john avery was another whos game lacked. he had wiggle room against college guys but didnt have the game or dicipline or speed for the nfl.

    all of these guys that people drag up from the past had GLARING issues that were red flag for the nfl and early draft choice. AUSTIN HAS NO problems or red flags other than people concentrating on his size. wow ! 3-4 tiny inches and he is 6'0 tall. 3 tiny inches!! and that going to change his game? no.

    the kid is strong as an ox, chisled, TRUE 4.3 speed. top notch wr from the slot or on the edge. just as good at the rb position. kick arse kr/p return man.


    and how is that not worth the #12?

    GM's miss on a lot of talent quiping over, or hanging on to archaic size and height requirements. when you have played your position for 3-4 years of big time college ball at a dominant level against big time competition, you have to go by the tape. and so many are so set in their ways about measurables, they lose the talent they so desperately NEED!!

    austin is this very player that is going to make many gm's and armchair gurus sick to their stomach that they didnt have the vision take him.

    hopefully that gm wont be IRELAND if austin is available at #12.
     
  23. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Let's say you can claim Zach Ertz at the beginning of 2nd round and Gavin Escobar in the 3rd round. Both are better options for Philbin than Eifert.

    Second scenario. Miami trades up back into first round at spot number twenty-something and picks Eifert, after picking a fine OT trading up in the top 10 of the draft, bringing double exposure of the jersey that would be fine with both sport & business side of the event. This would require strong conviction abut Tyler Eifert as it would be expensive in draft picks.
     
  24. ticophin

    ticophin Starter Donator

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    Double trade up? We leave the draft with what, 2-3 players?
     
  25. russianbear

    russianbear A True Fan

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    Geno Smith is the poor man's version of Ryan Tannehill?
     
  26. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    I love what I saw on Tavon Austin's tape. But you could argue the same on other WVU legend: Pat White.
    Pat's tape shows excellence, his WVU's records are outstanding and everything pointed he was going to be the next big thing at NFL.
    I was excited in 2009 when White arrived to Miami, but we know this doesn't worked well for him in his first attempt.
    The reason: undersized/slim for the pro-level.

    I don't argue that WO must be closer to or above 6' , that's the most common but surely not the only model.

    The issue is Tavon Austin can be very strong, but at the pro-level there are heavier and stronger LB & CB that will cut some of his NFL days.
    It's a shame but I don't expect him to last more than 3 seasons as starter on the league. You have to keep it in mind before using a high pick on him.
    Also most draft scouts and GM's assume he's molded to be a slot receiver because he won't beat none of top CB on the outside because they play using legal intimidation contact.
    At NCAA he avoided most of such contact, but at pro-level he won't have such luxury. In order to shine in the NFL, he must compete in the slot, trying to create a escape route.

    I'm a short guy and know about it.
     
  27. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 3, 2013
  28. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    That double trade up would imply using both of our 2nd round picks and perhaps a 6th rounder in 2013 plus a 3rd rounder in 2014.
    That leaves a pair of starters plus 5-6 picks for the rest of this draft

    That's more than enough!
     
  29. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    Think about it.

    Dolphins fan-base has three important segments:
    A) Fans that use every potential source to be updated on the team. (Yeah, we're on that segment).
    B) Old-school fans that love the game and visit the stadium from time to time.
    C) Non-committed fans that buy team merchandise if the team is winning or at least in the news.

    Segments B & C surely will somehow follow the first day of draft.

    So draft-day is a very important windows to show the new image of the team and promote jerseys, caps, tickets, etc.

    Believe me they know about hype.
     
  30. PolitePolite

    PolitePolite Well-Known Member

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    This is arguably the worst thead I've ever seen.
     
  31. Fins_of_Fury

    Fins_of_Fury In a contract year

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    Is it possible we may trade way up to grab one of these lineman?
     
  32. moonman

    moonman >tfw dolphins fan

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    Tavon Austin is the guy I want there. Dude is lightning and had really nice production in college (if you're into that stuff). Weighs 175 lbs soaking wet and benched 14 reps. 32 inch vertical.

    I'm thinking we make out offense as explosive as possible.
     
  33. MexDolfan

    MexDolfan Seasoned Veteran

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    There won't be an explosive offense if Ryan Tannehill is running for his life at each play.

    OT is top priority (again)
     

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