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WR prospects

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cane6

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I know we all want a gamebreaker WR, but after the Ted Ginn disaster I want a true WR rather than an athlete trying to play WR (ie Tavon Austin).

Look at Reggie Wayne, a guy with above average size and speed that knows how to get open and catch the ball, this is what we need.

I'm looking for guys that have run outs, slants, corners, posts and crossing routes. The successful ones know what angles to use to get open. Not the ones that run fly, WR screens and reverses all day.

The guys that I have identified that best know how to run routes to get open, in addition to catching the ball are:

Robert Woods
Markus Wheaton
Justin Hunter
Kenny Stills
Conner Vernon
Terrence Williams (somewhat, although most of his success comes on fly routes)
Swope


I love C. Patterson's YAC ability, I just wonder how long it would take him to learn the playbook and what it takes to be a pro WR. Any other prospects that I might have missed?
 
I think Cordarrelle Patterson's career could take a similar track to Pierre Garcon's. Right now I consider Garcon to be one of the better wide receivers in football but he wasn't always such. Coming out of Mount Union, Garcon needed a lot of work. But by his SECOND year in the NFL he had 1000+ yards and 6 TDs in 17 games (including playoffs). He had 900 yards and 7 TDs his next year, and 950 yards and 6 TDs even in 2011 when the wheels fell off. Now he went to Washington and got paid a large amount of money, and even though he only had 700 yards it was mostly because of the time he missed. Had he taken 500 snaps like a 16 game starter he'd have had 1400 yards.

I think Patterson will actually participate more quickly than Garcon. Part of Garcon not doing much of anything his rookie year was his humble beginnings. He was a lowly 6th round pick and coaches often keep guys on the bench or inactive based on expectations associated with draft standing. Where the rubber meets the road on that is, the coach in 2008 isn't about to bench even an ancient Marvin Harrison in favor of a lowly 6th round pick, even though in actuality Garcon might have been better than Harrison who was not good that year. With Patterson potentially being a 1st round pick, you're going to get him on the field and find ways to get him the balls in situations where he has a chance to succeed.

But even aside from the opportunity argument, I think there's a reason Patterson is such a better prospect than Garcon. Pierre never made it out of Mount Union where he dominated players that were practically JUCO level. Patterson did that too, at Hutchinson, but he made it out of there and into the SEC where he made SEC level defenders look the fool. That's an important signaling development. Additionally, Cordarrelle is 3 inches taller than Pierre Garcon, and that actually matters as it makes him more dangerous as a vertical threat.
 
I think the Garcon comparison for Cordarrelle Patterson is a good one, and I agree with your analysis CK. I would add that in addition to Washington getting Garcon at exactly the right time, their system was easier for him than the system in Indianapolis, which is more complex. While I consider our system more complex than Washington's for a young WR, I don't think it demands as much as what Peyton demanded in Indy.

Patterson would see time immediately in Miami, but probably would run a paired down route tree at first. Getting Patterson the ball in space would be just as devestating as getting Garcon the ball in space, so for an offense like Miami's that is starved for explosive plays, Patterson would get many opportunities to make explosive plays. Also, if we add Jennings too, Patterson becomes the downfield threat that keeps safeties out of the box and opens up the running game, even if he is used as a decoy a lot.

I'm a big fan of both Patterson and Hunter ... but both need a lot of work. If Robert Woods drops into the 2nd round as appears very possible, he's another one that's hard to resist, regardless of any other WR's we add. Swope in the 3rd would be a good slot receiver as well. I'm OK with Wheaton too actually, but I have reservations about him and question his listed size. I'm not a fan of Williams, as he seems to disappear when faced with physical coverage a lot and I question whether he will have consistent production or just an occasional big game.

Soooo many delicious options at WR this year ... and we have the resources to get some.
 
After watching his 2011 film against USC, Stanford & Oregon I am adding Keenan Allen to the list. He lines up at every receiver spot on the field, ran the underneath and sideline routes pretty well and showed good catching ability, all against good competition. My only concern, along with several other WR prospects is how will they do against press coverage. The PAC 10/12 is not known for press coverage.

Although I hope we go BPA at #12, or trade down for K. Allen or Eifert, I would be content with Allen at #12 after watching more of his film.

2011 USC game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Snr1EMtxYKwhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Snr1EMtxYKw
 
Take DeAndre Hopkins and we'll have a guy who'll be productive from Day 1. He possesses excellent size, hands and body control. He's consistently beats the jam and has enough speed to take it deep too. If 12 is too high, and I think it is, I'd like to see Miami trade down into the high 20's and draft him. If we get him and another high-end veteran receiver in free agency, the position will go from a position of weakness to one of strength overnight.

I know everybody wants the big play, highlight reel kind of guy with all of the "off the chart" measurables, but for my money, I'd much rather have the guy who knows how to get open, is tough over the middle, can get yards after the catch and WILL CONSISTENTLY CATCH THE BALL. That's DeAndre Hopkins and I'd love to hear the crowd yelling "Nuk" after each catch.
 
I'm really high on Wheaton. I'd be happy drafting him at 54 or 77. I'm also a little concerned about his size. He's listed at 6', 182. I'm actually not as concerned about the weight. But if he measures in under 5'11, that changes things. I'm not as concerned about the weight, because he's already addressed it as an issue, and according to him, he gained about 10 lbs between his Junior and Senior seasons. To my eyes, he's the most explosive deep threat in the draft. He's the guy who can be Mike Wallace. He's also a really willing blocker, and on multiple occasions, you see him emerge from the muck to lead-block for one of his teammates. Runs hard with the ball in his hands; looks to get up field; doesn't dance too much. He also seems like he has a good head on his shoulders. Here are some fun cilps:

[video=youtube;eWDggQL2yEU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWDggQL2yEU[/video]

[video=youtube;CjtiPitIsgE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjtiPitIsgE[/video]

[video=youtube;bIs0pFOkR74]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIs0pFOkR74[/video]
 
No huge knock, it's that he plays for Oregon state and has had average QB play
 
Wheaton looks small to me, and while weight isn't an issue for you, the jury on him having enough meat to stay healthy in the NFL is still a question in my mind. Also, like many talented WR's in this draft, he has inconsistent hands. You will not see it in the highlight reels of course, but catching the ball is going to be scrutinized in the postseason all-star games, workouts, and the combine. I like Wheaton, but he will take some adjustment time to the NFL and our offense. He's not a big target and more of a vertical threat than an accross the middle guy typical of the WCO, but talent is talent, and IMHO, he's got it.
 
I was watching a bunch of WR prospects for the second time to pull some stats from the film. While this has been discussed at length, the plays Patterson, Bailey and Austin were making were enough to make me stop taking data and just watch. Every time I watch WV, I just imagine Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey spending hours practicing how best to trick defenders by varying their speeds. The play where Bailey slows up in the end zone and then speeds up to trick the two defenders trailing him and then some of the stuff Austin pulls against Oklahoma. Even if all of those three bust out in the NFL, it's a damn fine pleasure to watch some of the stuff they pull on the college field.
 
The knock on Markus Wheaton isn't JUST his QB and team.

His hands are suspect at times. I've seen him drop a lot of easy ones.

As has been stated he is a small player whose strength is questionable at the next level. I think his weight is a concern precisely because he had to work so hard just to get to 182 lbs or wherever he is. How much further can he really go before he starts to look uncomfortable in his own frame? You watch him at 2:24 in the Arizona State video and you start to see where that size comes into play as he gets completely manhandled going over the middle. And before you ask, no I do not believe that to be a penalty.

Unfortunately what you don't see a ton of when you watch him is him fighting through physical coverage and making plays on the football anyway. That could be a problem because in the NFL the players he faces will generally all have 4.4 speed, so he won't be able to just blow by them. Nor will they play with atrocious technique as you saw some of the defenders in those videos.

The other thing that disturbs me a little bit is his run after catch. Not because it's bad, but because given his movement skills it should be better than it is. When he catches that ball at 0:35 in the UCLA video, he's got a LOT of space to work with there. If he turns his body to the outside and continues running, or if he cuts back harder and more quickly to the inside, that should be a touchdown based on his speed and movement abilities. It's all going to be speed and quickness because throughout his tape you don't see him doing anything post-contact unlike a Stedman Bailey.

Yes he could be the next Mike Wallace. He could also be the next Tiquan Underwood. You don't know. He's a good player that I would take a chance on at some point. I liked him enough that I kept pointing him out as underrated a few months ago. However, now I don't think he's underrated anymore. I'm seeing him valued at or near the top of the senior class. I don't think he's top 3 in the senior class. I like Terrance Williams, Quinton Patton and perhaps Tavon Austin better.
 
Marquess Wilson is flying way under the radar. I love this guy in the 2nd or 3rd paired with a vet FA. IMO he's top 3 wr in this class behind Patterson and Allen.
 
ckparrothead said:
The knock on Markus Wheaton isn't JUST his QB and team.

His hands are suspect at times. I've seen him drop a lot of easy ones.

As has been stated he is a small player whose strength is questionable at the next level. I think his weight is a concern precisely because he had to work so hard just to get to 182 lbs or wherever he is. How much further can he really go before he starts to look uncomfortable in his own frame? You watch him at 2:24 in the Arizona State video and you start to see where that size comes into play as he gets completely manhandled going over the middle. And before you ask, no I do not believe that to be a penalty.

Unfortunately what you don't see a ton of when you watch him is him fighting through physical coverage and making plays on the football anyway. That could be a problem because in the NFL the players he faces will generally all have 4.4 speed, so he won't be able to just blow by them. Nor will they play with atrocious technique as you saw some of the defenders in those videos.

The other thing that disturbs me a little bit is his run after catch. Not because it's bad, but because given his movement skills it should be better than it is. When he catches that ball at 0:35 in the UCLA video, he's got a LOT of space to work with there. If he turns his body to the outside and continues running, or if he cuts back harder and more quickly to the inside, that should be a touchdown based on his speed and movement abilities. It's all going to be speed and quickness because throughout his tape you don't see him doing anything post-contact unlike a Stedman Bailey.

Yes he could be the next Mike Wallace. He could also be the next Tiquan Underwood. You don't know. He's a good player that I would take a chance on at some point. I liked him enough that I kept pointing him out as underrated a few months ago. However, now I don't think he's underrated anymore. I'm seeing him valued at or near the top of the senior class. I don't think he's top 3 in the senior class. I like Terrance Williams, Quinton Patton and perhaps Tavon Austin better.
Click to expand...

He was more productive with the added weight. I think he can get to the 190-195 range without losing anything - especially if he is a legit 6'0. I don't think he's a perfect prospect by any means, but I think his positives warrant a late-2nd/early-3rd. We're not talking about a guy who is just a fast project. He was very productive. I would definitely want to pair him with a bigger, more complete WR, but as a WR, I'd prefer him to Austin. I agree that - at least right now - that you'd rank Williams and Patton ahead of him. I like Patton a lot, and Williams can do a lot of the things that Wheaton can (though, he certainly doesn't appear to be as fast), but he has more potential to be a complete WR. Patterson is the only WR in the class who I view as significantly more talented than Williams, so if Patterson doesn't play to his potential and Williams does, I can easily see Williams as the best WR from this class. I have Hopkins and Allen rated ahead of him. Back to Wheaton, though. I see Wheaton creating more separation down the field than any other WR in this class, and that's one of the primary reason I'm so high on him.
 
I think this a great year to draft 1 or 2 WR's. After watching games and a bunch of video on these guys, below is how I rank them.

1) Coradelle Patterson- Ten
2) Deandre Hopkins- Clemson-
3) Terrance Williams- Baylor
4) Keenan Allen- Cal
5) Justin Hunter- Ten
6) Stedman Baily- WV
7) Da'rick Rodgers because of character- Ten Tech
8) Tavon Austin- WV
9) Robert Woods- USC
10) Cobi Hamilton- Arkansas
 
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