Yearly Need vs Value Drafting Debate | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Yearly Need vs Value Drafting Debate

Trouble is that this is not a good QB class nor do we have a second rounder. Call me crazy but I'd rather move down in the first and draft the best available, try and trade the 2nd we receive for a first next year, draft a QB prospect mid-round, sign a mid money vet QB as a stop gap then use both firsts and move up high into the draft next season to jockey into position to grab a solid franchise QB prospect.

They need to find 2 QBs so signing a stop gap vet and drafting a mid round plus Henne makes you set for the season. This is not the year to address a franchise QB in the draft for the Dolphins. Get that next season.
 
Again, this is not a Cam versus Colin debate, its more about the philosophy of passing on a better rated player because you can get one cheaper later in the draft.
I hate this theory and its a game I hate playing with the QB position.
Chubbs
 
j-off-her-doll said:
I appreciate that, and I think GM's and coaches will be ultra-attentive during his interview process and check every street he ever walked down. I do, though, think it's a mistake to judge prospects by anything except that player's physical ability, mental ability, and character. If his character is a legitimate concern, I don't think we're in a position to judge it. I've heard more good than bad. If I trust my OC and my QB coach and I think the kid is intelligent, I don't worry about the system thing.

I respect your opinion a ton. I just think this particular method of 'bust prevention' is just a slightly better version of Parcells' QB rules. I also will be the first to admit that you've probably watched more Cam Newton than I have this season. I only saw a couple games live, and I've been playing catch up - downloading the games where I can when I can - the last few weeks. I've seen most of them at this point. I'd guess you've seen all of them. That said, based on what I've seen, I can't envision Newton being anything lesser than a much better version of V. Young. As far as his ceiling . . . something like Big Ben with a stronger arm and MUCH better wheels.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying Cam's talent... and I only partially subscribe to Bill Parcells quarterback drafting theories.

However, these aren't just Bill Parcells theories, these are 3 MAIN tried and true practices that will lead you in the right direction 99% of the time when it comes to the most important position in sports.

I'll make an exception for any one of these "rules" on any quarterback prospect if I have reason to overlook it.... I'm not seeing a reason to overlook any of them with Cam Newton.

The intangibles are what matters at the quarterback position in the NFL. Piss poor intangibles will NEVER overcome exceptional physical skills. Never. Ever.

The question you have to ask yourself after you establish what you think a prospect's "ceiling" is.... What are the odds this kid is going to put in the necessary work it takes day in and day out in the NFL to ever come CLOSE to reaching that ceiling?

How high his ceiling is doesn't really matter... it's how high the percentage is that he ever reaches it based on intangibles that's going to decide his fate... and yours if you select him.
 
Ted said:
Trouble is that this is not a good QB class nor do we have a second rounder. Call me crazy but I'd rather move down in the first and draft the best available, try and trade the 2nd we receive for a first next year, draft a QB prospect mid-round, sign a mid money vet QB as a stop gap then use both firsts and move up high into the draft next season to jockey into position to grab a solid franchise QB prospect.

They need to find 2 QBs so signing a stop gap vet and drafting a mid round plus Henne makes you set for the season. This is not the year to address a franchise QB in the draft for the Dolphins. Get that next season.
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I would not be against trading most of our picks for next years draft, i would love to have an additional 1st and 2nd rounder next year.

Truthfully as long as they dont touch our 2012 draft picks there is not much else this Regime can do to shock or upset me. I expect them to trade down select a Center or OG etcc with their 1st pick.
 
Chubby said:
Here is where I think i disagree. IMO, Its riskier to select the #2 guy then it is to select the #1 guy. They both are both risks, but a 1st round top 15 guy should have less risk of busting then a 2nd round guy would.

We cant keep settling for the 2nd rate guy because he is better value, we need to go after the best available guy in the most important position of need every time.
Chubbs
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Chubbs are you comfortable in drafting Mallet, Locker or Newton at 15 when you can either trade down or select a BPA in a position of need then address the QB in FA and next years draft?
 
Ted said:
Chubbs are you comfortable in drafting Mallet, Locker or Newton at 15 when you can either trade down or select a BPA in a position of need then address the QB in FA and next years draft?
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Yes I would be comfortable drafting Mallet or Newton with the #15 pick. I am not a Locker fan at all but wouldnt be upset if they did draft Locker.
There are no gaurantees with drafting a QB, we cant keep playing this lets wait till next year game and we definately cant keep playing the lets take a lesser talented guy becaue of value game.

We need a QB badly, they need to take a chance this year and Next year if need be again.

We have no gaurantees that we will be in place for Luck or that any other Qb next year will be any better then whats here this year. Whose to say if we do pass on a 1st round QB this year we will draft a QB next year in the 1st round? Especially if they grab another QB in the 2nd round this year.

We will be stuck in the same situation as we are now after selecting Henne a few years ago most likely. When does it end? When will they man up and go get the guy they want or take a chance with their 1st pick.
Chubbs
 
Chubby said:
My whole point is, if in your evaluation Newton is better then Colin and Both are available at 15 you do not pass on Newton because later on you can still get Colin. This is a fail solution to improving your QB position.

This might "Might" work at another position but I dont think it works with the QB. Not to bring up the Ryan/Long debate again but they thought it was best value to pass on Ryan because a few other guys would be available in the 2nd round.

This is a fail method that doesnt work with this position.
Chubbs
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Exactly, although I never said I would pass on Cam Newton so I could grab Kaepernick later... nor did I say I felt Cam Newton was worth the 15th pick anyway. There's other guys I'd rather have at #15 than Cam Newton.

I was only trying to explain why these guys would pass and take Kaepernick later. If they have a top 15 grade on Newton (which they won't) then they have to take him.

Scouting is less about being right or wrong, and more about having a conviction, and KNOWING why you have the grade you do. That's what makes a good scout... a good GM.

If you have a top 15 grade on the quarterback from Southwest Popcorn State, then stay true to your draft board and take him.

If you have a 3rd round grade on Colin Kaepernick and target him there, and feel like you can get him there... then stay true to your draft board and take him.... that's mainly what my point was.
 
Chubby said:
Yes I would be comfortable drafting Mallet or Newton with the #15 pick. I am not a Locker fan at all but wouldnt be upset if they did draft Locker.
There are no gaurantees with drafting a QB, we cant keep playing this lets wait till next year game and we definately cant keep playing the lets take a lesser talented guy becaue of value game.

We need a QB badly, they need to take a chance this year and Next year if need be again.

We have no gaurantees that we will be in place for Luck or that any other Qb next year will be any better then whats here this year. Whose to say if we do pass on a 1st round QB this year we will draft a QB next year in the 1st round? Especially if they grab another QB in the 2nd round this year.

We will be stuck in the same situation as we are now after selecting Henne a few years ago most likely. When does it end? When will they man up and go get the guy they want or take a chance with their 1st pick.
Chubbs
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Just my opinion my friend but it sounds as if you are wanting to grab the BPA QB at 15 out of frustration, which is understandable. Look I don't want to write off another season but the truth is that we have several holes to plug on offense which won't happen in one off season. Drafting a WR, TE and C then getting the QB next year is alright. The QB class next year should be much stronger. If I recall, the 07 QB class was terribly weak but not even this bad, Of course I may be wrong.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying Cam's talent... and I only partially subscribe to Bill Parcells quarterback drafting theories.

However, these aren't just Bill Parcells theories, these are 3 MAIN tried and true practices that will lead you in the right direction 99% of the time when it comes to the most important position in sports.

I'll make an exception for any one of these "rules" on any quarterback prospect if I have reason to overlook it.... I'm not seeing a reason to overlook any of them with Cam Newton.

The intangibles are what matters at the quarterback position in the NFL. Piss poor intangibles will NEVER overcome exceptional physical skills. Never. Ever.

The question you have to ask yourself after you establish what you think a prospect's "ceiling" is.... What are the odds this kid is going to put in the necessary work it takes day in and day out in the NFL to ever come CLOSE to reaching that ceiling?

How high his ceiling is doesn't really matter... it's how high the percentage is that he ever reaches it based on intangibles that's going to decide his fate... and yours if you select him.
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I agree with you 100%. I think we just have different reads on Newton as a person. I see Newton as a natural leader, intelligent, have that 'it' factor, and I feel he has the desire to put in the work. If I'm wrong about his intelligence or his dedication to the sport and the position, then I wouldn't draft him as a QB before the 6th or 7th.
 
Need is where the value is. Needed are players who will improve the team, and value is in players who will improve the team.

The reasoning fallacy is in assigning the need and value arbitrarily. For example, we need a starting RB but the highest rated player is OT. Both of these are arbitrary. There is only one question to answer: Who will improve the team the most? Is it Ryan Kerrigan, Ryan mallet, Mark ingram, Gabe Carimi? Who is it? This is not about need or value, but about contribution.
 
TedSlimmJr said:
Exactly, although I never said I would pass on Cam Newton so I could grab Kaepernick later... nor did I say I felt Cam Newton was worth the 15th pick anyway. There's other guys I'd rather have at #15 than Cam Newton.

I was only trying to explain why these guys would pass and take Kaepernick later. If they have a top 15 grade on Newton (which they won't) then they have to take him.

Scouting is less about being right or wrong, and more about having a conviction, and KNOWING why you have the grade you do. That's what makes a good scout... a good GM.

If you have a top 15 grade on the quarterback from Southwest Popcorn State, then stay true to your draft board and take him.

If you have a 3rd round grade on Colin Kaepernick and target him there, and feel like you can get him there... then stay true to your draft board and take him.... that's mainly what my point was.
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Ya i got your point and is the right way to go but if you have a top 20 grade on Newton and 3rd or 4th round grade on Colin, you cant pass on Newton at 15.

They cant do this with the QB position, they can get away with this with every other position but not QB which is my point.

You can say the same about Mallet if you have a top 20 grade on him then take him at 15.

We have to do something about our QB position and I feel they need to take every oportunity to grab the best guy every chance they get.
Chubbs
 
Chubby said:
Here is where I think i disagree. IMO, Its riskier to select the #2 guy then it is to select the #1 guy. They both are both risks, but a 1st round top 15 guy should have less risk of busting then a 2nd round guy would.

We cant keep settling for the 2nd rate guy because he is better value, we need to go after the best available guy in the most important position of need every time.
Chubbs
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Again, you're not necessarily settling for the better value, you're pursuing the more important attribute... intangibles. If you can get roughly the same physical tools with better intangibles later, it's a no-brainer.

Where they're drafted isn't what determines what their bust potential is. Cam Newton has more bust potential than virtually any prospect in this draft no matter where he's drafted.
 
so if my conviction is that mark ingram is a top 5 bpa and i think cam newton is a top 10 worthy talent should i despite the fact we need a qb so bad my hairs gonna fall out take ingram over newton???

something i've been struggling with for quite some time
 
hooshoops said:
so if my conviction is that mark ingram is a top 5 bpa and i think cam newton is a top 10 worthy talent should i despite the fact we need a qb so bad my hairs gonna fall out take ingram over newton???

something i've been struggling with for quite some time
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Which one do you think is most likely to cost you your job if you're wrong?

If your ability to bring home a paycheck every week was at stake, which one would you take?

That's what's on the line for most of the GM's in the league when they decide which name to turn in on these cards..
 
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