Yearly Need vs Value Drafting Debate

[fgrocker]

Teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Giants, and Colts tend to favor BPA over need during the draft. Teams like the Bills and Panthers tend to favor need over BPA.

Which method do you think works better?

 

[MD]

Teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Giants, and Colts tend to favor BPA over need during the draft. Teams like the Bills and Panthers tend to favor need over BPA.

Which method do you think works better?

Look at the difference in the teams and you'll find your answer.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I think the fewer "rules" you have, the better off you'll be.

The rule about character and intangibles for instance. That one can be shaped and molded around, so why bother having an explicit rule? Cam Newton doesn't pass muster by that rule but Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Clausen do? Ben Roethlisberger did?

In the end it always comes down to what you feel when you watch the prospects, and what you think of them in general. The facts and evidence, the rules and philosophies, all of that stuff gets twisted and molded, re-shaped in efforts to support that, what you feel when you watch the guy.

You don't like Cam Newton as a prospect. I do. That's what it boils down to.

Jimmy Clausen didn't have a criminal record, CK... neither does Ryan Mallett.

Clausen may have been a little bit of a jacka**, and perhaps a bit ****y, but so is Blaine Gabbert... a lot of teammates couldn't stand him...

I made an exception for Clausen in the intangibles department because he did exactly what hoops is so high on Newton about.. Clausen was the only one who consistently showed up for Notre Dame every week, along with Golden Tate. And he had the other 2 "rules" covered (3 year starter, pro-style system under Weis).

Clausen would come off the bench injured and lead ND on the winning touchdown drives in the final 2 minutes against Purdue, etc.


There's all sorts of rumors about Ryan Mallett... although I'm not buying them.


I've been right here in the middle of the Cam Newton fiasco from day 1... and it's not that I don't like him as a prospect.

I just don't like him in the 1st round. Even without the recruiting scandals, perceived lack of character and intangibles, criminal record, etc.. there's a thing or two on the football field that ding his grade for me also.

 

[ckparrothead]

i just think cam newtons a winner...i never got the feel when i watched him that the moment was ever too big for him or that he wouldn't come thru in the clutch and pull out the victory...i think he's a winner and i want that kind of mindset on my team...and i don't get the feeling that he's a bad character kid in the interviews etc that i've heard...

the nat championship game oregon could have taken the lead late there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that cam would have made the plays necessary to win the game...never even crossed my mind that he wouldn't come thru

i can't say that about just about all of these other qb prospects...

I agree with that.

I believe he won a State Championship in High School, he won a National Championship at Blinn, and he won a National Championship at Auburn (undefeated in the SEC, to boot). You can even tack on that somehow he ends up a backup on a National Championship team at Florida.

The thing that I focus on is if I'm a defense, how do I defend the guy. We can get caught up in the minutae, and that's good cuz the details are important, but what about THAT perspective? What about the perspective of the defense having to face the guy and saying, how do we do this? On 3rd & 5, at the blink of an eye he can go from looking for an easy option to convert the down, to having converted it himself...easily. And he doesn't even do that very often, as I've pointed out many times in the past he only scrambled for positive yardage on 12% of the pass plays that Malzahn called. But as a defense you still have to think about it.

And what REALLY scares me about him if I'm a defense, is how SUDDEN he is. Fake and misdirection are a part of the guy's soul, like a basketball point guard. That's one thing. But the scary thing is he goes from a ready position to PAIN in like 0.7 seconds. That's how long it takes for him to have taken off running and already being in position to hurt you that way, and that's how long it takes him to come off where he's looking and hit his check down option with a bullet straight into the guy's chest.

That's just abnormal and as a defense I know I'm always going to have a tough time defending it. And if the guy has any amount of work ethic (and you have plenty of Auburn players and coaches swearing up and down that he does)...then the rapid evolution we saw in his passing ability in 2010 will continue right on through in 2011 and beyond, and he'll be a winner as a pro player. Maybe even a champion.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

You defend him the same way you defend all "dual threat" quarterbacks... you force him to stay in the pocket, read defenses, go through his progressions, and beat you being a pocket passer.

You force him to beat you with his decision making.... force him to make good decision, after good decision, after good decision... Make accurate throw after accurate throw into tight coverage.

You don't rush him with your ends like you do a typical pocket passer... you try to keep contain on him and force him to operate from the pocket.

Rush 3 and drop 8 into coverage if you have to... make him find the holes in zone coverage or check it down.

If he can beat you that way then he just beats you.... but it's a lot harder than they think. Which is why pocket passers are one's playing in superbowls every year and winning Lombardi Trophies.

 

[ckparrothead]

I really don't think it's that easy. And I think that if a defense has to go that far to beat a guy, a good offensive coordinator should be able to have a field day with that.

Bottom line is he's a better pure passer than other dual threat QBs that have come out. He makes better decisions, has better mechanics and is more accurate at a wider variety of throws.

In fact he's a better pure thrower than Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Mallett. Wider variety of throws he's accurate on.

 

[Yatil Green87]

Teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Giants, and Colts tend to favor BPA over need during the draft. Teams like the Bills and Panthers tend to favor need over BPA.

Which method do you think works better?

i think the first one works better

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I really don't think it's that easy. And I think that if a defense has to go that far to beat a guy, a good offensive coordinator should be able to have a field day with that.

Bottom line is he's a better pure passer than other dual threat QBs that have come out. He makes better decisions, has better mechanics and is more accurate at a wider variety of throws.

In fact he's a better pure thrower than Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Mallett. Wider variety of throws he's accurate on.

It's not really going that far. It's basics. You're checking the guy's oil down after down by forcing HIM to execute the basics.

The quarterback is the one that has to make the correct decisions over and over and over again... and has to tack on the accurate throws on top of the decision making... down after down... no matter what the OC cooks up.

You force Newton to make the kind of throw he made when he misread the coverage and threw the pick in the middle of the field against Oregon... except he's going to have to make that decision and anticipate that coverage a lot faster in the NFL.

 

[MD]

Slimm, what are your thoughts on TJ Yates? Good mid round selection? CK any thoughts on him?

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Slimm, what are your thoughts on TJ Yates? Good mid round selection?

I think he's as good of a quarterback that a mid-round selection at quarterback can be... particularly in this class.

 

[MD]

I think he's as good of a quarterback that a mid-round selection at quarterback can be... particularly in this class.

Sounds like you're not real high on him. I assume a fair assessment is that in a stronger QB class he would be a late round pick.

 

[hoops]

I really don't think it's that easy. And I think that if a defense has to go that far to beat a guy, a good offensive coordinator should be able to have a field day with that.

Bottom line is he's a better pure passer than other dual threat QBs that have come out. He makes better decisions, has better mechanics and is more accurate at a wider variety of throws.

In fact he's a better pure thrower than Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Mallett. Wider variety of throws he's accurate on.

i absolutely agree...i think he's gonna be hell on wheels to prepare for and defend against...

 

[dolfan22]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying Cam's talent... and I only partially subscribe to Bill Parcells quarterback drafting theories.

However, these aren't just Bill Parcells theories, these are 3 MAIN tried and true practices that will lead you in the right direction 99% of the time when it comes to the most important position in sports.

I'll make an exception for any one of these "rules" on any quarterback prospect if I have reason to overlook it.... I'm not seeing a reason to overlook any of them with Cam Newton.

The intangibles are what matters at the quarterback position in the NFL. Piss poor intangibles will NEVER overcome exceptional physical skills. Never. Ever.

The question you have to ask yourself after you establish what you think a prospect's "ceiling" is.... What are the odds this kid is going to put in the necessary work it takes day in and day out in the NFL to ever come CLOSE to reaching that ceiling?

How high his ceiling is doesn't really matter... it's how high the percentage is that he ever reaches it based on intangibles that's going to decide his fate... and yours if you select him.

Enjoying reading the discussion.

You say , " What are the odds this kid is going to put in the necessary work it takes day in and day out in the NFL to ever come CLOSE to reaching that ceiling?"

By this , are you saying you don't feel Newton would do this? I agree btw that dedication , hard work and perseverance are intangibles needed for success , especially at the QB position. I don't agree if you are saying he will enter the league with an attitude such as Michael Vick or Vince Young , physically skilled players who felt a sense of entitlement and carried themselves that way , which affected their success level imo.

 

[ckparrothead]

Slimm, what are your thoughts on TJ Yates? Good mid round selection? CK any thoughts on him?

He's my #1 senior quarterback and the #4 overall QB on my board. Nobody in the draft media seems to share my affections for him, but to me he's the best of the rest, once you get out of the group of three players that have all that sexy pro talent (Gabbert, Newton, Mallett).

His dedication to the details of the game is very impressive and helps me to SOMEWHAT forgive the fact that he owns the 18 yard throw instead of the 25 yard throw. What also helps me forgive that is the fact that he throws the best and most accurate deep vertical in the draft, and he is the most efficient and deadly operator of the two-minute offense in the Draft.

 

[dolfan22]

so if my conviction is that mark ingram is a top 5 bpa and i think cam newton is a top 10 worthy talent should i despite the fact we need a qb so bad my hairs gonna fall out take ingram over newton???

something i've been struggling with for quite some time

Just my humble opinion , but if a team has a top 5 grade on a RB and a top 10 grade on a QB AND they need a QB AND have needed a QB for a decade pretty much ( excluding the year Pennington fell into our lap for freakishly healthy season ) you waste no time selecting the QB.

Much more likely to get production further down the draft from a RB , and BPA should always be arrived at by each team's situation to a degree.

If indeed that was the case , any team would be foolish if they did not take the QB imvho , and set themselves up for continued non long term success.