Yikes! Odds Against Jets Raised To 9!

[ckparrothead]

HAH! Bollywood.

Yeah I dont know if I would take the -9 line for us...I mean this IS still a division game.

What I think is that the market is reflecting that there doesn't seem much reason to think the Dolphins will have trouble finding motivation for this game, given the manner in which the Jets beat the Phins in the first game. I mean, all of the players were embarrassed because they knew they should have won. The coaches were so embarrassed over their insufficient game planning that they apologized to the players. This is a division rival and the Jets beat us the first time around, so the Dolphins players should really be focused on getting revenge...not necessarily on how good we are and how poor they are.

If I had to guess why the big line despite the trend as Awsi putting it of sub-.500 teams never covering a huge spread, I would say it's that the market feels that the chances of the Jets coming away with a sweep over any division opponent are somewhere at like 100 to 1.

 

[Phin-o-rama]

Come on, 9 points!

Have you SEEN our 4th string QB and our 3rd string RB behind our second string o-line?

They are AWESOME!

Man, you guys better watch out, here comes BOLLYWOOD!

BZ

i see no difference than whats normally on the field

 

[Samphin]

Come on, 9 points!

Have you SEEN our 4th string QB and our 3rd string RB behind our second string o-line?

They are AWESOME!

Man, you guys better watch out, here comes BOLLYWOOD!

BZ

:vault:

 

[finfan54]

All I know is that Bollinger is in trouble. Martin is gone. No PB center. Zach is loving life. And Linehan on the sideline is the move of the year for us.

 

[BwanaZulia]

All I know is that Bollinger is in trouble. Martin is gone. No PB center. Zach is loving life. And Linehan on the sideline is the move of the year for us.

Well, to be fair, Martin was gone last game and we still did ok.

BZ

 

[finfan75]

Well, to be fair, Martin was gone last game and we still did ok.

BZ

Heres to you losing $40.

:

 

[kcbrown]

Bollinger sucks (right now at least)...no way a young qb comes in on this D and beats the Fins!

Go Fins!!

 

[dominizzo]

Miami 34 JEts !7

 

[Awsi Dooger]

HAH! Bollywood.

Yeah I dont know if I would take the -9 line for us...I mean this IS still a division game.

What I think is that the market is reflecting that there doesn't seem much reason to think the Dolphins will have trouble finding motivation for this game, given the manner in which the Jets beat the Phins in the first game. I mean, all of the players were embarrassed because they knew they should have won. The coaches were so embarrassed over their insufficient game planning that they apologized to the players. This is a division rival and the Jets beat us the first time around, so the Dolphins players should really be focused on getting revenge...not necessarily on how good we are and how poor they are.

If I had to guess why the big line despite the trend as Awsi putting it of sub-.500 teams never covering a huge spread, I would say it's that the market feels that the chances of the Jets coming away with a sweep over any division opponent are somewhere at like 100 to 1.

The Dolphins will definitely be motivated for this game. Coming off a winning streak and against a hated division rival that has beaten us several times in a row will be plenty of juice.

I didn't say sub.500 teams never cover the spreads of -6 or higher at home. Just that the overall percentage is low, below 40%. That's very significant by wagering standards where the edges are slight.

That angle is one of hundreds I have in my Excel workbooks. It's a simple one so I use it without tweaking. Many newcomer gamblers don't understand the value of small edges and always try to turn a 60% system into 75% or 80%. But that's stupid. First of all, you're shrinking the sample size by definition so that means the historical basis is less reliable. And even if you turn a system that projects to 15-10 over the course of a year into something that projects to 6-2, that's actually negative units. A 15-10 record equates to +4 units while 6-2 equates to +3.8 units. Plus since you have a theoretical advantage you want to be betting MORE games, not less. Volume and an edge. It's like if someone will give you a 10% edge on picking heads over tails every time. Naturally you want to keep flipping nonstop all day and night to maximize that advantage.

The Jets game is one I'll bet without great expectation. Like the Jets poster mentioned, their team is playing on short personnel. A problem like that can be magnified on the road. New York will probably show up with high energy level early in the game after winning last week, but if they can't score they may be ground down and not cover. It's just a game I would feel sick if I didn't bet the Jets and they do cover since it fits the system. Over the years when I've tried to outguess the systems and either don't bet or wagered the other way, more often than not it burns me.

That basic system also works in college basketball, BTW. I call it 875 Flop. You take any college team rated below 75.00 in Jeff Sagarin's power ratings in USA Today, and bet against them if they are home favorites of -8 or higher. It's a long term advantage grind that works best in conference games. You get tons of plays in the small conferences where even the higher rated teams are below 75.00 in the power ratings.