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Dolphins Not Interested In Trading For Rosen

Ok can we trade out of the first round this year for 2020 draft picks? We need to start stocking up picks now so we can draft whichever QB we want in 2020.

I don't see any other way to accumulate 2020 picks, we only have a couple players who MAY fetch us a 1st or 2nd round pick.
 
Simple fact of the matter is 80% of the franchise/elite level QB success stories that ended up playing as rookies showed you SOMETHING right away, even as rookies, to suggest that they were really good.

Josh Rosen had a really bad year. His offensive line doesn't explain why he had the 2nd worst passer rating in the NFL even on plays where he was kept clean of pressure. And don't give me any crap about Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, David Johnson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Jermaine Gresham being so awful that the team could have the worst offense in football despite their QB being secretly pretty good. They're not that bad. Hell, they're not even bad at all. That offense had a QB problem.

Josh Rosen had a 26.6 QBR for the 2018 season. Do you realize how bad that is? We haven't even seen a QBR that low among qualifying starters in the NFL since Blake Bortles was a rookie in 2014.

I liked Josh Rosen well enough coming out of the draft. I like him just like I have liked many guys in the 1st round over the decades, as a dice roll that you're figuring has perhaps a 40% chance of panning out to be the kind of player you want. That's what you're looking at as a guy like that.

Except that like I said, about 80% of the guys that do pan out, if they played as rookies, they looked pretty good.
  • Peyton Manning was 5th in the NFL in passing TDs as a rookie, which back in 1998 the way the NFL was back then, was a BFD.
  • Matt Ryan finished his rookie year Top 5 in QBR, with an 88 passer rating, improving a 4-12 team to 11-5, and a 29th ranked offense to Top 10.
  • Cam Newton took his offense from 32nd in the NFL to 5th in the NFL in points scored overnight.
  • Andrew Luck was Top 10 in QBR as a rookie and led his team from 2-14 to 11-5 overnight.
  • Russell Wilson was Top 3 and had a 100 passer rating that same rookie year.
  • DeShaun Watson had a crazy 83.6 QBR as a rookie, starting 6 games and putting together a 103 passer rating.
  • Ben Roethlisberger was literally undefeated as a rookie starter, assembling a 13-0 record with a 98 passer rating.
  • Baker Mayfield finished the year with a 94 passer rating, taking an 0-16 team and going 7-7 during his time as the QB.
Really if you look at it, the only guys that would have been considered fully successful top QB picks, that played as rookies, and sucked as rookies...are Eli Manning and Carson Wentz.

You could maybe count Jared Goff as among the success stories that started, and played poorly as rookies. You could maybe count Donovan McNabb. You could perhaps count Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston. Maybe you'd count Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton.

Personally, I would think we'd have higher standards than that. And I'd also note that most of those guys, even if they did have poor rookie years, had better ones than Josh Rosen did.

The point is simple Bayesian updating says you have to look at your previous evaluation and update it with the new information. If you thought the guy had a 40 or even 50% chance of panning out before, and 80% of the guys that do pan out and were asked to play as rookies actually showed you something positive as rookies but he did not, then you're looking at maybe about a 10% chance that he's still the guy you were looking for him to be.
 
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ckparrothead said:
Simple fact of the matter is 80% of the franchise/elite level QB success stories that ended up playing as rookies showed you SOMETHING right away, even as rookies, to suggest that they were really good.

Josh Rosen had a really bad year. His offensive line doesn't explain why he had the 2nd worst passer rating in the NFL even on plays where he was kept clean of pressure. And don't give me any crap about Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, David Johnson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Jermaine Gresham being so awful that the team could have the worst offense in football despite their QB being secretly pretty good. They're not that bad. Hell, they're not even bad at all. That offense had a QB problem.

Josh Rosen had a 26.6 QBR for the 2018 season. Do you realize how bad that is? We haven't even seen a QBR that low among qualifying starters in the NFL since Blake Bortles was a rookie in 2014.

I liked Josh Rosen well enough coming out of the draft. I like him just like I have liked many guys in the 1st round over the decades, as a dice roll that you're figuring has perhaps a 40% chance of panning out to be the kind of player you want. That's what you're looking at as a guy like that.

Except that like I said, about 80% of the guys that do pan out, if they played as rookies, they looked pretty good.
  • Peyton Manning was 5th in the NFL in passing TDs as a rookie, which back in 1998 the way the NFL was back then, was a BFD.
  • Matt Ryan finished his rookie year Top 5 in QBR, with an 88 passer rating, improving a 4-12 team to 11-5, and a 29th ranked offense to Top 10.
  • Cam Newton took his offense from 32nd in the NFL to 5th in the NFL in points scored overnight.
  • Andrew Luck was Top 10 in QBR as a rookie and led his team from 2-14 to 11-5 overnight.
  • Russell Wilson was Top 3 and had a 100 passer rating that same rookie year.
  • DeShaun Watson had a crazy 83.6 QBR as a rookie, starting 6 games and putting together a 103 passer rating.
  • Ben Roethlisberger was literally undefeated as a rookie starter, assembling a 13-0 record with a 98 passer rating.
  • Baker Mayfield finished the year with a 94 passer rating, taking an 0-16 team and going 7-7 during his time as the QB.
Really if you look at it, the only guys that would have been considered fully successful top QB picks, that played as rookies, and sucked as rookies...are Eli Manning and Carson Wentz.

You could maybe count Jared Goff as among the success stories that started, and played poorly as rookies. You could maybe count Donovan McNabb. You could perhaps count Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston. Maybe you'd count Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton.

Personally, I would think we'd have higher standards than that. And I'd also note that most of those guys, even if they did have poor rookie years, had better ones than Josh Rosen did.

The point is simple Bayesian updating says you have to look at your previous evaluation and update it with the new information. If you thought the guy had a 40 or even 50% chance of panning out before, and 80% of the guys that do pan out and were asked to play as rookies actually showed you something positive as rookies but he did not, then you're looking at maybe about a 10% chance that he's still the guy you were looking for him to be.
Click to expand...

But if you're not going to draft a QB this year, wouldn't you prefer a young guy as a stopgap rather than an know-what-he-already-is vet?

You wouldn't give a 3rd for Rosen considering him as a caretaker with much room to improve looking towards 2020 anyway?

Upside he grows and we have young competition next year and if he doesn't we're picking top 5?
 
Question I keep asking is, when is Josh Rosen gonna run out of EXCUSES? Because that's all I know the guy for, anymore.

EXCUSES for poor performance in 2016. EXCUSES for having a 6-7 losing record in 2017, and not really looking like a supposedly top notch QB prospect.

Hey I made some of these excuses, too. I bought into them well enough to still consider him a 1st round pick.

But here we are, another year of underachievement, another year of EXCUSES.

At some point you recognize that your worst case scenario if you trade for Josh Rosen isn't that he sucks. It's that everything comes together well enough that he looks decent in 2019. And then he hits you with three more years of punching you in the dick and making more EXCUSES.
 
ckparrothead said:
Question I keep asking is, when is Josh Rosen gonna run out of EXCUSES? Because that's all I know the guy for, anymore.

EXCUSES for poor performance in 2016. EXCUSES for having a 6-7 losing record in 2017, and not really looking like a supposedly top notch QB prospect.

Hey I made some of these excuses, too. I bought into them well enough to still consider him a 1st round pick.

But here we are, another year of underachievement, another year of EXCUSES.

At some point you recognize that your worst case scenario if you trade for Josh Rosen isn't that he sucks. It's that everything comes together well enough that he looks decent in 2019. And then he hits you with three more years of punching you in the dick and making more EXCUSES.
Click to expand...

Kind of Tannhillish
 
ckparrothead said:
At some point you recognize that your worst case scenario if you trade for Josh Rosen isn't that he sucks. It's that everything comes together well enough that he looks decent in 2019. And then he hits you with three more years of punching you in the dick and making more EXCUSES.
Click to expand...

And that would be the story of this unlucky franchise.
 
ckparrothead said:
Simple fact of the matter is 80% of the franchise/elite level QB success stories that ended up playing as rookies showed you SOMETHING right away, even as rookies, to suggest that they were really good.

Josh Rosen had a really bad year. His offensive line doesn't explain why he had the 2nd worst passer rating in the NFL even on plays where he was kept clean of pressure. And don't give me any crap about Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, David Johnson, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Jermaine Gresham being so awful that the team could have the worst offense in football despite their QB being secretly pretty good. They're not that bad. Hell, they're not even bad at all. That offense had a QB problem.

Josh Rosen had a 26.6 QBR for the 2018 season. Do you realize how bad that is? We haven't even seen a QBR that low among qualifying starters in the NFL since Blake Bortles was a rookie in 2014.

I liked Josh Rosen well enough coming out of the draft. I like him just like I have liked many guys in the 1st round over the decades, as a dice roll that you're figuring has perhaps a 40% chance of panning out to be the kind of player you want. That's what you're looking at as a guy like that.

Except that like I said, about 80% of the guys that do pan out, if they played as rookies, they looked pretty good.
  • Peyton Manning was 5th in the NFL in passing TDs as a rookie, which back in 1998 the way the NFL was back then, was a BFD.
  • Matt Ryan finished his rookie year Top 5 in QBR, with an 88 passer rating, improving a 4-12 team to 11-5, and a 29th ranked offense to Top 10.
  • Cam Newton took his offense from 32nd in the NFL to 5th in the NFL in points scored overnight.
  • Andrew Luck was Top 10 in QBR as a rookie and led his team from 2-14 to 11-5 overnight.
  • Russell Wilson was Top 3 and had a 100 passer rating that same rookie year.
  • DeShaun Watson had a crazy 83.6 QBR as a rookie, starting 6 games and putting together a 103 passer rating.
  • Ben Roethlisberger was literally undefeated as a rookie starter, assembling a 13-0 record with a 98 passer rating.
  • Baker Mayfield finished the year with a 94 passer rating, taking an 0-16 team and going 7-7 during his time as the QB.
Really if you look at it, the only guys that would have been considered fully successful top QB picks, that played as rookies, and sucked as rookies...are Eli Manning and Carson Wentz.

You could maybe count Jared Goff as among the success stories that started, and played poorly as rookies. You could maybe count Donovan McNabb. You could perhaps count Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston. Maybe you'd count Derek Carr, or Andy Dalton.

Personally, I would think we'd have higher standards than that. And I'd also note that most of those guys, even if they did have poor rookie years, had better ones than Josh Rosen did.

The point is simple Bayesian updating says you have to look at your previous evaluation and update it with the new information. If you thought the guy had a 40 or even 50% chance of panning out before, and 80% of the guys that do pan out and were asked to play as rookies actually showed you something positive as rookies but he did not, then you're looking at maybe about a 10% chance that he's still the guy you were looking for him to be.
Click to expand...

Too bad, some of those on the NFL network don't update their evaluations on Rosen. I still hear guys covering the draft combine say that in this draft he would be #2 behind Murray, which exacerbates the problem for regular fans like us because it is bogus information. I never liked Rosen. I don't like his personality and think he's an ass. It would be sickening if we gave our #13 for the guy. I could live with giving a late round pick, but probably still wouldn't like it. I don't think he is the type of guy we need when we are trying to change the team culture for the better.
 
I think KM was the only QB we would have drafted this year. Can't see us going after Lock or Jones. We might trade back now if the opportunity presents itself and secure more picks for 2020.
 
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/03/04/kyler-murray-nfl-combine-notes-fmia-peter-king/



3. Rosen Problem 2: What could you get in trade for him? Miami (13th pick in the first round), Washingon (15), the Chargers (28) and New England (32) would be worth investigating … unless the compensation for Rosen has crashed. I asked Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who lives in Arizona and watched Rosen last year, what he thinks the value for Rosen is. “I would give a three for Josh,” Warner said. A third-round pick. Yikes. Saturday night, I asked a renowned NFL GM what he thought the value of Rosen in trade would. “Probably a three,” the GM said. “Not what the Cardinals would think his value is.” Scary, on the surface, for Arizona. But if you’ve decided you want Murray, and you’ve decided Rosen’s not your guy, you’ve got to move on, regardless what you get for Rosen
 
:lmfao:

traptses said:
He’ll need the steroids to survive
Click to expand...

If you want to hurt him, you'll have to catch him first.

Have you seen him hit the NOS button?

BTW, he's not a run first QB.
 
I really want Rosen in a Giants uniform. Odds are he’s a Redskin though.
 
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