1st overall picks past 20 years | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

1st overall picks past 20 years

Kyndig

Kyndig

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Book is too early to be written on Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, & Myles Garrett, but the last two of those definitely aren‘T sure things. So, how many of them would’ve been worth trading the farm to move into position to draft?

Of that List, Only Eli Manning and Eric Fischer were on Super bowl winning teams, but Fischer missed half of the season.

The rest of that list? Cam Newton (Although he just got cut, but definitely had some good years), Stafford hasn’t won anything, Vick was great, but ended up doing prison time for dog fighting. Andrew luck put up stats similar to Ryan Tannehill and is no longer in the league.

So for those considering trading up for Joe Burrow, statistically, based on this list, I think we are mathematically better off keeping and using all 3 of all first round draft picks and not trading up to the number one overall position for a player that historical statistics suggest will likely not end up being worth the price.

Is Burrow really that much more of a sure thing than Tua, Herbert, or Love? Maybe, but probably not? Trading back to acquire more picks is a sound strategy as long as it doesn’t cost us to address QB & OT. Anyways, just food for thought for those who think that trading the farm for Burrow is worth it. Maybe it is? But history says it most likely isn’t...
 
Trade down - take a guy then trade with your extra picks - then rinse and repeat take 2 QBs -

get over the ****ing glitz thing - right now the dolphins NEED 4 or 5 o lineman....
 
Here's the list for the #5 pick overall for the last 20 years.

2019-Devin White
2018-Bradley Chubb
2017-Corey Davis
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2015-Brandon Scherff
2014-Khalil Mack
2013-Ezekiel Ansah
2012-Justin Blackmon
2011-Patrick Peterson
2010-Eric Berry
2009-Mark Sanchez
2008-Glenn Dorsey
2007-Levi Brown
2006-AJ Hawk
2005-Cadillac Williams
2004-Sean Taylor
2003-Terrence Newman
2002-Quentin Jammer
2001-LaDainian Tomlinson
2000-Jamal Lewis

How often would it have been better off to just trade down?

Based on this list, I think we are better off trading down and accumulating more first round draft picks.Not trying to be a smart ass but you can probably do this with most picks and get similar results. That's why its a crapshoot.
 
Kyndig said:
Contents
Book is too early to be written on Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, & Myles Garrett, but the last two of those definitely aren‘T sure things. So, how many of them would’ve been worth trading the farm to move into position to draft?

Of that List, Only Eli Manning and Eric Fischer were on Super bowl winning teams, but Fischer missed half of the season.

The rest of that list? Cam Newton (Although he just got cut, but definitely had some good years), Stafford hasn’t won anything, Vick was great, but ended up doing prison time for dog fighting. Andrew luck put up stats similar to Ryan Tannehill and is no longer in the league.

So for those considering trading up for Joe Burrow, statistically, based on this list, I think we are mathematically better off keeping and using all 3 of all first round draft picks and not trading up to the number one overall position for a player that historical statistics suggest will likely not end up being worth the price.

Is Burrow really that much more of a sure thing than Tua, Herbert, or Love? Maybe, but probably not? Trading back to acquire more picks is a sound strategy as long as it doesn’t cost us to address QB & OT. Anyways, just food for thought for those who think that trading the farm for Burrow is worth it. Maybe it is? But history says it most likely isn’t...
Click to expand...
Great post and since 2011,4 aren't working
 
superphin said:
Here's the list for the #5 pick overall for the last 20 years.

2019-Devin White
2018-Bradley Chubb
2017-Corey Davis
2016-Jalen Ramsey
2015-Brandon Scherff
2014-Khalil Mack
2013-Ezekiel Ansah
2012-Justin Blackmon
2011-Patrick Peterson
2010-Eric Berry
2009-Mark Sanchez
2008-Glenn Dorsey
2007-Levi Brown
2006-AJ Hawk
2005-Cadillac Williams
2004-Sean Taylor
2003-Terrence Newman
2002-Quentin Jammer
2001-LaDainian Tomlinson
2000-Jamal Lewis

How often would it have been better off to just trade down?

Based on this list, I think we are better off trading down and accumulating more first round draft picks.Not trying to be a smart *** but you can probably do this with most picks and get similar results. That's why its a crapshoot.
Click to expand...

Great post, and great question! Out of those, I'd say Jalen Ramsey, Brandon Scherff, Khalil Mack, Patrick Peterson, Eric Berry, AJ Hawk, Sean Taylor, and La Danian Tomlinson would have made trading down regretful? So, like 40%? Bradley Chubb is also a notable mention, but I'd have to see the other backs available in that draft. Great post though!
 
A list of past #1 overall picks offers nothing towards what you’re trying to debate.

What your debate is, is whether or not Joe Burrow is worth trading up to #1 for.

Miami is trying to find its franchise QB. There are 3 options. One of them you’ll definitely have to trade up for, one you’ll probably have to trade up for, and one that will likely be there at pick 5.

If you want to have that debate, you need to lay out all the pros and cons of each QB, factor in the compensation to move up, and decide which is the best option and then make the move to get that option.

What Courtney Brown did in 2000 does nothing to sway my decision on which QB to bet the future on
 
Kyndig said:
Great post, and great question! Out of those, I'd say Jalen Ramsey, Brandon Scherff, Khalil Mack, Patrick Peterson, Eric Berry, AJ Hawk, Sean Taylor, and La Danian Tomlinson would have made trading down regretful? So, like 40%? Bradley Chubb is also a notable mention, but I'd have to see the other backs available in that draft. Great post though!
Click to expand...

Only 1 I disagree with is Hawk. Hawk was just ok for a long time but imo when you go in the top 5 the expectation is you're getting an All Pro caliber player. If there was a draft redo the Pack would not use a top 5 pick on Hawk again imo.
 
superphin said:
Only 1 I disagree with is Hawk. Hawk was just ok for a long time but imo when you go in the top 5 the expectation is you're getting an All Pro caliber player. If there was a draft redo the Pack would not use a top 5 pick on Hawk again imo.
Click to expand...

Fair enough...
 
Look at the Dolphins first round draft picks over the past 20 years. Guess we need to trade out of the first round all together based on the logic in this thread.
 
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