1st overall picks past 20 years | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

1st overall picks past 20 years

Kyndig said:
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Book is too early to be written on Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, & Myles Garrett, but the last two of those definitely aren‘T sure things. So, how many of them would’ve been worth trading the farm to move into position to draft?

Of that List, Only Eli Manning and Eric Fischer were on Super bowl winning teams, but Fischer missed half of the season.

The rest of that list? Cam Newton (Although he just got cut, but definitely had some good years), Stafford hasn’t won anything, Vick was great, but ended up doing prison time for dog fighting. Andrew luck put up stats similar to Ryan Tannehill and is no longer in the league.

So for those considering trading up for Joe Burrow, statistically, based on this list, I think we are mathematically better off keeping and using all 3 of all first round draft picks and not trading up to the number one overall position for a player that historical statistics suggest will likely not end up being worth the price.

Is Burrow really that much more of a sure thing than Tua, Herbert, or Love? Maybe, but probably not? Trading back to acquire more picks is a sound strategy as long as it doesn’t cost us to address QB & OT. Anyways, just food for thought for those who think that trading the farm for Burrow is worth it. Maybe it is? But history says it most likely isn’t...
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Brown, Carr and Russell are the only true busts on that list, the rest had solid careers. Jameis Winston and later the jury is still out. The draft is a crapshoot, do your due diligence, create a good environment for growth & development and hope for the best.
 
NYPhinzFan said:
Brown, Carr and Russell are the only true busts on that list, the rest had solid careers. Jameis Winston and later the jury is still out. The draft is a crapshoot, do your due diligence, create a good environment for growth & development and hope for the best.
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The question wasn’t how many of them were busts, the question was how many of them in hindsight would be worth trading potentially all 3 of our first round picks for this year, and possibly even more for? That was the question. (I.e. the idea of trading up for Joe Burrow, that was the point of this thread)
 
NYPhinzFan said:
Brown, Carr and Russell are the only true busts on that list, the rest had solid careers. Jameis Winston and later the jury is still out. The draft is a crapshoot, do your due diligence, create a good environment for growth & development and hope for the best.
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Maybe not complete "busts", but a lot of them never lived up to their draft status.

You could make an argument that a team is better off with a clear bust, than a guy you just keep hanging on to the hope that will get over the hump but never does.
 
FWIW, there was another list that could mean more and more realistic too......I don't believe Cincy will trade so lets look at the other list I'm talking about......trading up from inside the top 10.........the last 10 trades involving two teams that were already in the top 10(for those who want to trade up for Tua).......one turned out to be a good trade......I believe it was 7 the teams would not do it again and 2 that were too soon to tell yet with the jets moving up for Darnold being one of those. The articles was about two months agon and I don't have it but most of the time the team moving up ends up losing the trade.
 
traptses said:
A list of past #1 overall picks offers nothing towards what you’re trying to debate.
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Kyndig said:
The point of this thread was to provoke thought on the value of the 1st overall pick, which the Bengals have in this draft, and to take a historical look at all of the 1st overall picks of the past 20 years and in hindsight ponder whether any of them would have been worth trading tons of draft capital to go from our pick in this draft which is 5 to number one in case you wanted to take a crack at Joe Burrow.
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traptses is right. This is an exercise in futility.

You might as well be talking about flipping a coin. Just because it came up tails 15 out of the past 20 years doesn’t mean heads is a poor choice to make.

Or if MIA has lost 90% of the games they’ve played against an opponent over the past 20 years, it doesn’t have any affect on a game they’ll play against the same opponent in September.

Joe Burrow will sink or swim on his own merit. Nothing from the past 20 years will have a thing to do with it.

When Trevor Lawrence likely declares in 2021, the same will be true. And not 1 GM will care what happened with Joe Burrow or any other #1 pick from the past. Because it doesn’t matter. History never adds value to or devalues the pick.

Next year’s #1 pick will be worth a lot more than in most draft’s strictly due to the prospect that will be available. History bears no weight in the matter.

Back in 2000 history would have told you the 199th pick isn’t worth much of anything. But then Tom Brady was selected with that pick proving that history didn’t factor in.
 
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EJay said:
traptses is right. This is an exercise in futility.

You might as well be talking about flipping a coin. Just because it came up tails 15 out of the past 20 years doesn’t mean heads is a poor choice to make.

Or if MIA has lost 90% of the games they’ve played against an opponent over the past 20 years, it doesn’t have any affect on a game they’ll play against the same opponent in September.

Joe Burrow will sink or swim on his own merit. Nothing from the past 20 years will have a thing to do with it.

When Trevor Lawrence likely declares in 2021, the same will be true. And not 1 GM will care what happened with Joe Burrow or any other #1 pick from the past. Because it doesn’t matter. History never adds value to or devalues the pick.

Next year’s #1 pick will be worth a lot more than in most draft’s strictly due to the prospect that will be available. History bears no weight in the matter.

Back in 2000 history would have told you the 199th pick isn’t worth much of anything. But then Tom Brady was selected with that pick proving that history didn’t factor in.
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It’s all drivel, but in quarantine, it is an interesting discussion, or at least to some of us LOL
 
Thanks for posting. Mostly hits. A few misses. Some big misses.

Bottom line, though. It has nothing to do with whether the top pick this year does well or not.
 
So in the past 20 years the only QB drafted at 5 was Sanchez, that is some statistic. For those trying to use hindsight as a factor in whether to trade up or not, are they really saying that Baker Mayfield would be just as successful a QB regardless of whether Cleveland or KC had picked him up?
 
If it's not Tua at #5. Trade back and wait for Trevor Larwance next year imo. Do Not Trade Up!!
 
Only 2 teams get to go to the big show and the Patriots have been to most of them in the past couple of decades. The team with the least amount of 1st rounders.
 
Kyndig said:
Contents
Book is too early to be written on Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, & Myles Garrett, but the last two of those definitely aren‘T sure things. So, how many of them would’ve been worth trading the farm to move into position to draft?

Of that List, Only Eli Manning and Eric Fischer were on Super bowl winning teams, but Fischer missed half of the season.

The rest of that list? Cam Newton (Although he just got cut, but definitely had some good years), Stafford hasn’t won anything, Vick was great, but ended up doing prison time for dog fighting. Andrew luck put up stats similar to Ryan Tannehill and is no longer in the league.

So for those considering trading up for Joe Burrow, statistically, based on this list, I think we are mathematically better off keeping and using all 3 of all first round draft picks and not trading up to the number one overall position for a player that historical statistics suggest will likely not end up being worth the price.

Is Burrow really that much more of a sure thing than Tua, Herbert, or Love? Maybe, but probably not? Trading back to acquire more picks is a sound strategy as long as it doesn’t cost us to address QB & OT. Anyways, just food for thought for those who think that trading the farm for Burrow is worth it. Maybe it is? But history says it most likely isn’t...
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You put Matt Ryan up there instead of Jake Long and we wouldn't be sitting here having this conversation.
 
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