20 years of first round QBs.... | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

20 years of first round QBs....

Want me to pull up the QB's taken out of the 1st two rounds and see how many of them you want on your team?

Bet you never thought of that did ya? There is a HUGE drop off of QB's that make it in the NFL after the first round. And lookat at the past oh say 8 years or so, you get MANY franchise QB's.

A franchise QB doesn't have to lead the league in pass yards, a Franchise QB is a QB of the quality to actually lead the team, rather than win in spite of the team.

Byron and Palmer are starting QB's this year, Boller and Grossman will lead their teams in a year or two.

Carr, Harrington and Rammsey are all great QB leaders on their team. The worst off of that trio is Carr who's on the youngest team in the NFL, Ramsey is the future franchise QB of washington, and we all know about Harrington.

Michael Vick: Franchise QB, nuff said. Hasn't proven anything? Teams plan solely around HIM. That's a franchise QB in my eyes.

Chad Pennington: Current young budding star...

McNabb and Daunte are franchise QB's, don't pee on our shoulders and tell us it's raining. Culpepper was among the top of the QB ratings, BOTH are Pro-bowlers.

Mcnown was a bust, Smith is and Couch is on the bubble. He could DEFFINTLY catch on somewhere, don't kid yourself, his career is far from over.

Shot 50/50 in 1998. Got the ultimate franchise QB in manning, and Leaf busted. Let's totally forget to mention that SD has trouble developing QB's PERIOD. How would Leaf have faired on another team?..hmm....



Since you focused on the area between marino and the current stars i'll just focus on the most recent drafts ok? Going by my stats franchise QB's are MUCH more common than what you said.

Now, go look up 3rd rounders that make it as NFL starters. Surprise, the fall off is gigantic. So how do you suggest we get a franchise QB? i'm open to suggestions, the only young QB's available on the market are "busts" such as couch, the others are low rounders that haven't shown a damn hting in their time in the NFL< or old crusty Vets.

Take your pick buddy, we can continue to draft QB's in the 4th and below as recent history shows, or we can take a gamble and develope the QB. But your stats are VERY misleading. Your penalizing these new guys that are team leaders nad teams plan around because they've only been in the league a few years. What do you expect from them? You have probowlers in there, and you still call them on the buble?
 
Since you focused on the area between marino and the current stars i'll just focus on the most recent drafts ok? Going by my stats franchise QB's are MUCH more common than what you said.
Click to expand...

Your reasons don't have to be that spurrious. There are definite differences between how teams approach the draft now and how they did 20 years ago. The fact that over the last 10 years of there have been only 6 definite busts with about 21 QBs drafted, is not a coincidence IMO.

Tim Couch is no more a bust than Vinny Testeverde was at this point in his career. If it takes a while for a guy's light to "click on" more likely than not you didn't give him enough time on the bench to groom into the position.
 
totally agreed, thsi is a different game from 20 years ago. Outside of the Marino Era, there was a 10 year dry period, minus Bledsoe for starting QB's. But now-a days it seems either it's alot easier to pick the QB's, with the intangibles, or it's a lot easier to groom the QB. Either way, those "busts" and franchise QB stats presented at the beginning of this thread were very misleading. Those young guys are tearing up the NFL, teams plan around them, and for them.
 
The worst part about not drafting Rivers is that were going to have to hear comlaints from the Rivers contingent for the next three years -until he finally proves that he wasnt worth the pick.

Thats how long it took for the Drew Brees bandwagon to disperse. I think people forget how angry many fans were for passing over Brees. I know I was a bit pissed.
 
This thread aint about the rest of the draft...it's showing that drafting a QB in the first round is more miss than hit....period.

And you can call them whatever you want....the QBs taken since 2000, haven't done anything yet....they're just the most recent names to grace the list....and if the trend continues....there will be 5 busts..3 decent.... and 1 franchise, out of those picks. Until they prove something either way, I'm not calling them anything.
 
Originally posted by Surferosa
Thats how long it took for the Drew Brees bandwagon to disperse. I think people forget how angry many fans were for passing over Brees. I know I was a bit pissed.
Click to expand...

For me, at least, it wasn't so much that the Dolphins passed on Brees. It was that they drafted Jamar Fletcher.
 
Well then your numbers should be out of 36, not out of 43. Its not fair to count the ones who havent had the time to prove bust or boom status yet.

That means 14 of the 36 have been successful as pros, 11 of which have been Pro Bowl type guys at some point, and about 8 or 9 (depending on where you put Bernie Kosar and Drew Bledsoe) of those have been guys you can really run your franchise around and be considered LUCKY with how good a QB you managed to pick up (we're talking the Steve Youngs, Troy Aikmans of the group).

And what I hypothesize is that the last 10 years or so have been dramatically different from the first 10 years in terms of the chance of your 1st round QB becoming good. Of the 8 franchise guys I'm talkin about 6 of them were drafted in the last 10 years and only 2 were drafted between 84 and 93.

There's a myriad of reasons why draft procedures today could be more accurate or likely to produce a franchise QB than draft procedures of yesteryear...not least of which is the fact that over the period 84 to 93 there was a stigma against drafting black QBs. Notice that 4 of the 6 franchise type QBs drafted in the last 10 years have been black.
 
How much does this change if we look at 21 years? Yeah, that's what I figured. 1983 was such a big year that it skews the next almost decade...
 
Originally posted by Graythreat
Want me to pull up the QB's taken out of the 1st two rounds and see how many of them you want on your team?

answered above^^^

Bet you never thought of that did ya? There is a HUGE drop off of QB's that make it in the NFL after the first round.

But not at the expense of a first round draft choice....

A franchise QB doesn't have to lead the league in pass yards, a Franchise QB is a QB of the quality to actually lead the team, rather than win in spite of the team.

So every team but ours has a franchise QB???

Byron and Palmer are starting QB's this year, Boller and Grossman will lead their teams in a year or two.

what exactly does "starting QB" mean?.....same thing it means here?
Shall I give you last years' QBR of any of these QBs

Carr, Harrington and Rammsey are all great QB leaders on their team. The worst off of that trio is Carr who's on the youngest team in the NFL, Ramsey is the future franchise QB of washington, and we all know about Harrington.

69....63...and 70...in that order

Michael Vick: Franchise QB, nuff said. Hasn't proven anything? Teams plan solely around HIM. That's a franchise QB in my eyes.Teams plan solely around him ??...So what?.....Has he proven to be worth the number 1 pick in the draft???....I think not.

Chad Pennington: Current young budding star...

I'll give you this one, even though there is no guarantee....you didn't happen to catch his last playoff game did you?

McNabb and Daunte are franchise QB's, don't pee on our shoulders and tell us it's raining. Culpepper was among the top of the QB ratings, BOTH are Pro-bowlers.

Both still have plenty of question marks

Mcnown was a bust, Smith is and Couch is on the bubble. He could DEFFINTLY catch on somewhere, don't kid yourself, his career is far from over.

yeah....he COULD catch on somehwere.....what's he done so far?.......thanks for your concern though, I'll be careful not to kid myself....I appreciate your example.

Shot 50/50 in 1998. Got the ultimate franchise QB in manning, and Leaf busted. Let's totally forget to mention that SD has trouble developing QB's PERIOD. How would Leaf have faired on another team?..hmm....

Good point...Fouts must have been an accident....How did Leaf do when he left SD???



Since you focused on the area between marino and the current stars i'll just focus on the most recent drafts ok? Going by my stats franchise QB's are MUCH more common than what you said.

I didn't see any stats, only your opinions...:huh:

Now, go look up 3rd rounders that make it as NFL starters. Surprise, the fall off is gigantic. So how do you suggest we get a franchise QB? i'm open to suggestions, the only young QB's available on the market are &quot;busts&quot; such as couch, the others are low rounders that haven't shown a damn hting in their time in the NFL&lt; or old crusty Vets. SHOW me the fall-off is gigantic....and the last part I've answered already.

Take your pick buddy, we can continue to draft QB's in the 4th and below as recent history shows, or we can take a gamble and develope the QB. But your stats are VERY misleading. Your penalizing these new guys that are team leaders nad teams plan around because they've only been in the league a few years. What do you expect from them? You have probowlers in there, and you still call them on the buble? I don't see how I'm penalizing anybody....I'm calling them incomplete....you would do the same if I started bringing up their stats....:lol:
 
Originally posted by Jimmy James
How much does this change if we look at 21 years? Yeah, that's what I figured. 1983 was such a big year that it skews the next almost decade...
Click to expand...
I just took the stats that were given....and I'm not sure what you mean by that assertion....Blackledge, Eason and O'brien....weren't worth first round picks....that doesn't exactly skew anything....
 
Originally posted by ckparrothead
Well then your numbers should be out of 36, not out of 43. Its not fair to count the ones who havent had the time to prove bust or boom status yet.

That means 14 of the 36 have been successful as pros, 11 of which have been Pro Bowl type guys at some point, and about 8 or 9 (depending on where you put Bernie Kosar and Drew Bledsoe) of those have been guys you can really run your franchise around and be considered LUCKY with how good a QB you managed to pick up (we're talking the Steve Youngs, Troy Aikmans of the group).

And what I hypothesize is that the last 10 years or so have been dramatically different from the first 10 years in terms of the chance of your 1st round QB becoming good. Of the 8 franchise guys I'm talkin about 6 of them were drafted in the last 10 years and only 2 were drafted between 84 and 93.

There's a myriad of reasons why draft procedures today could be more accurate or likely to produce a franchise QB than draft procedures of yesteryear...not least of which is the fact that over the period 84 to 93 there was a stigma against drafting black QBs. Notice that 4 of the 6 franchise type QBs drafted in the last 10 years have been black.
Click to expand...
You'e trying to convince me that guys who haven't made it through their first contracts are locks to be franchise players, sorry but, I'm not buying that.

Carr and Harrington had two of the worst QBR in the league last year.....Rex grossman is a complete unknown so far.....kyle Boller??? C'mon....
I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong and I'm not trying to skew any statistics....I put them right up there for everybody to interpret....it seems that if there is any skewing going on, it is coming at me, not from me.
 
But I don't want drafted QBs....I want QBs(as prospects) that are already in the league and have either been good in preseason or have been good in limited action....and recent trends prove that that is an effective strategy for finding a starter.
 
2003
5 3 24 88 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
6 3 33 97 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas

2002
4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State

2001
None

2000
2 3 3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
3 3 13 75 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville

1999
7 3 16 77 Brock Huard Seahawks Washington

1998
4 3 25 86 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Middle Tennessee State
5 3 30 91 Brian Griese Broncos Michigan

1997
None

1996
2 3 24 85 Bobby Hoying Eagles Ohio State

1995
5 3 16 80 Stoney Case Cardinals New Mexico
6 3 20 84 Eric Zeier Browns Georgia

1994
None

1993
3 3 2 58 Billy Joe Hobert Raiders Washington

1992
None

1991
None

1990
3 3 6 59 Tommy Hodson Patriots Louisiana State
4 3 10 63 Peter Tom Willis Bears Florida State
5 3 17 70 Neil O'Donnell Steelers Maryland

1989
4 3 18 74 Anthony Dilweg Packers Duke
5 3 27 83 Erik Wilhelm Bengals Oregon State

1988
1 3 13 68 Tom Tupa Cardinals Ohio State
2 3 21 76 Chris Chandler Colts Washington

1987
5 3 8 64 Cody Carlson Oilers Baylor

1986
4 3 12 67 Bubby Brister Steelers N.E. Louisiana
5 3 16 71 Hugh Millen Rams Washington
6 3 17 72 Robbie Bosco Packers Brigham Young

1985
2 3 1 57 Frank Reich Bills Maryland

1984
2 3 3 59 Jeff Hostetler Giants West Virginia
3 3 24 80 Rick McIvor Cardinals Texas
4 3 27 83 Jay Schroeder Redskins UCLA

Gosh...talk about a cursed round.
 
Originally posted by ckparrothead
2003
5 3 24 88 Dave Ragone Texans Louisville
6 3 33 97 Chris Simms Buccaneers Texas

2002
4 3 16 81 Josh McCown Cardinals Sam Houston State

2001
None

2000
2 3 3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers Hofstra
3 3 13 75 Chris Redman Ravens Louisville

1999
7 3 16 77 Brock Huard Seahawks Washington

1998
4 3 25 86 Jonathan Quinn Jaguars Middle Tennessee State
5 3 30 91 Brian Griese Broncos Michigan

1997
None

1996
2 3 24 85 Bobby Hoying Eagles Ohio State

1995
5 3 16 80 Stoney Case Cardinals New Mexico
6 3 20 84 Eric Zeier Browns Georgia

1994
None

1993
3 3 2 58 Billy Joe Hobert Raiders Washington

1992
None

1991
None

1990
3 3 6 59 Tommy Hodson Patriots Louisiana State
4 3 10 63 Peter Tom Willis Bears Florida State
5 3 17 70 Neil O'Donnell Steelers Maryland

1989
4 3 18 74 Anthony Dilweg Packers Duke
5 3 27 83 Erik Wilhelm Bengals Oregon State

1988
1 3 13 68 Tom Tupa Cardinals Ohio State
2 3 21 76 Chris Chandler Colts Washington

1987
5 3 8 64 Cody Carlson Oilers Baylor

1986
4 3 12 67 Bubby Brister Steelers N.E. Louisiana
5 3 16 71 Hugh Millen Rams Washington
6 3 17 72 Robbie Bosco Packers Brigham Young

1985
2 3 1 57 Frank Reich Bills Maryland

1984
2 3 3 59 Jeff Hostetler Giants West Virginia
3 3 24 80 Rick McIvor Cardinals Texas
4 3 27 83 Jay Schroeder Redskins UCLA

Gosh...talk about a cursed round.
Click to expand...

:eek: yuck!...but at least they didn't cost you a first rounder...
 
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