But you couldn't very well not pick Richardson, lol. He's a strong candidate, obviously, but he also has two of the greatest run stopping defenses in the NFL in his division (with the third no slouch). There's a lot of hopes for Weeden, but I look at it and see a passing game's that going to struggle, especially initially, which is just going to make it harder to run. Weeden has a lot of ability but it's a huge transition from the Big 12 to the AFC North, and that's even if you're not relying on garbage like Travis Benjamin or unproven mediocrities like Mohammad Massaquoi and Greg Little to throw to. 1000 yards, 4 YPC and 6-8 TDs would be a great accomplishment for Richardson in that situation, but I'm not sure I buy it.
I also believe stylistically it's going to be more of a transition for Richardson than it would be for Martin. He's not going to be as physically dominant in the NFL as he was in the SEC. It could lead to injury at some point if he can't learn when to pick his spots better. Of course, they also said that about AP, but Richardson's not quite the specimen Peterson is, at least to me, or Earl Campbell was in his day. I haven't gone back and studied it but my guess would be that power backs tend to struggle more than elusive guys as rookies, for that reason. That ended up being the case in the Ronnie Brown/Cadillac Williams/Cedric Benson year, for sure.
Tampa by contrast has a weaker division and much better offensive talent. Martin I think has a good shot to have a Matt Forte-like rookie year, 1400-1700 yards from scrimmage and like 10 total TDs.
Not that it matters, though. Luck is winning ROY.
