2013: Why Just an Average QB Rating Would be a Success for Ryan Tannehill | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2013: Why Just an Average QB Rating Would be a Success for Ryan Tannehill

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Shouright

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I think the main thing to consider when evaluating Ryan Tannehill right now is whether his early career trajectory projects him to become a QB capable of winning a Super Bowl with the Miami Dolphins.

Because of its correlation with winning in the NFL and with the consensus perceptions of individual QB performance, generally, over the history of the game, I believe QB rating is one of the best available ways of assessing his current performance as well as his early career trajectory.

Last year Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was 76.1. This year it is 83.2, a 7.1-point increase. The average QB rating in the NFL year-to-year is roughly 85, give or take a point or so.

Here are the season QB ratings for every Super Bowl-winning QB since the year (1994) the salary cap was instituted in the NFL:

YEARQBQB RATING
1994Steve Young112.8
1995Troy Aikman93.6
1996Brett Favre85.8
1996Kurt Warner109.2
1997John Elway87.5
1998John Elway93.0
2000Trent Dilfer76.6
2001Tom Brady86.5
2002Brad Johnson92.9
2003Tom Brady85.9
2004Tom Brady92.6
2005Ben Roethlisberger98.6
2006Peyton Manning101.0
2007Eli Manning73.9
2008Ben Roethlisberger80.1
2009Drew Brees109.6
2010Aaron Rodgers101.2
2011Eli Manning92.9
2012Joe Flacco87.7
AVERAGE 92.71
STANDARD DEVIATION10.79

The average of the QB ratings above is 92.71, with a standard deviation (the average distance from the average) of 10.79.

If Ryan Tannehill were to finish this season with a QB rating of 85 give or take a point (the league average year-to-year), his QB rating in only his second season in the NFL would be better than or non-statistically significantly different from 8 of the 19 (42%) QBs listed above.

Although we have no idea whether or how much he will improve next year, an improvement of around 5 points (a QB rating around 90) would make his performance better than or non-statistically significantly different from 13 of the 19 (68% -- more than two-thirds) QBs listed above.

My personal hope for him (and the team) is that he finishes the season strong, attains a QB rating around 85, and improves on that next year to a rating around 90. I think this is certainly possible. :up:
 
shouright said:
I think the main thing to consider when evaluating Ryan Tannehill right now is whether his early career trajectory projects him to become a QB capable of winning a Super Bowl with the Miami Dolphins.

Because of its correlation with winning in the NFL and with the consensus perceptions of individual QB performance, generally, over the history of the game, I believe QB rating is one of the best available ways of assessing his current performance as well as his early career trajectory.

Last year Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was 76.1. This year it is 83.2, a 7.1-point increase. The average QB rating in the NFL year-to-year is roughly 85, give or take a point or so.

Here are the season QB ratings for every Super Bowl-winning QB since the year (1994) the salary cap was instituted in the NFL:

YEARQBQB RATING
1994Steve Young112.8
1995Troy Aikman93.6
1996Brett Favre85.8
1996Kurt Warner109.2
1997John Elway87.5
1998John Elway93.0
2000Trent Dilfer76.6
2001Tom Brady86.5
2002Brad Johnson92.9
2003Tom Brady85.9
2004Tom Brady92.6
2005Ben Roethlisberger98.6
2006Peyton Manning101.0
2007Eli Manning73.9
2008Ben Roethlisberger80.1
2009Drew Brees109.6
2010Aaron Rodgers101.2
2011Eli Manning92.9
2012Joe Flacco87.7
AVERAGE 92.71
STANDARD DEVIATION10.79

The average of the QB ratings above is 92.71, with a standard deviation (the average distance from the average) of 10.79.

If Ryan Tannehill were to finish this season with a QB rating of 85 give or take a point (the league average year-to-year), his QB rating in only his second season in the NFL would be better than or non-statistically significantly different from 8 of the 19 (42%) QBs listed above.

Although we have no idea whether or how much he will improve next year, an improvement of around 5 points (a QB rating around 90) would make his performance better than or non-statistically significantly different from 13 of the 19 (68% -- more than two-thirds) QBs listed above.

My personal hope for him (and the team) is that he finishes the season strong, attains a QB rating around 85, and improves on that next year to a rating around 90. I think this is certainly possible. :up:
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And if he maintains 83.2 he will be a bust right?
 
I think this is a fair and reasonable way to map progress. Is that standard deviation seemingly high, or no?

Also just for everyone who loves to talk about Henne and Tannehill...

Henne's first year playing +10 games with Dolphins = 75.2
Henne's second year playing 10+ games with Dolphins = 75.4
Henne's first year playing 10+ games with Jaguars = 72.2
Henne's second year playing 10+ games with Jaguars = 74.9 (this year)

I think we can safely say we've found Henne's ceiling. So please, stop bringing him up.
 
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Interesting,

One thing that I've been thinking about recently is the following:

How will a regime change impact R.Tannehill's growth?

OP,Does a regime change have any bearing on the the statistics you've highlighted here? A quick glance tells me the Qbs on your list for the most part have played and grew under the same regime when they ultimately won the superbowl.
 
ANUFan said:
Interesting,

One thing that I've been thinking about recently is the following:

How will a regime change impact R.Tannehill's growth?

OP,Does a regime change have any bearing on the the statistics you've highlighted here? A quick glance tells me the Qbs on your list for the most part have played and grew under the same regime when they ultimately won the superbowl.
Click to expand...
That's a good point, I'd say its because they're pretty much all proven good QBs and when you got one of those, you keep em...
 
NBP81 said:
That's a good point, I'd say its because they're pretty much all proven good QBs and when you got one of those, you keep em...
Click to expand...

I would further add this is also true for the Regime. Typically, if they win a Superbowl rarely are they replaced.
 
So, considering that Andrew Luck's QBR without Reggie Wayne is barely 72 vs 91.3 with him playing......and that "post-Reggie" he lost to the only team they played currently on the plus side of .500, can we assume that:

a) he's not so hot after-all using an objective QBR success precursor and/or
b) the presence of a go-to receiver from both a production and defensive diversion standpoint cannot be understated and/or
c) this is a shifting Maginot Line of importance depending on one's preconceived agenda and the resulting points they're trying to make

???

f222z8-1.jpg
 
CalDolFan10x14 said:
Yay! More agenda-driven QB stat charts from Shou!

familyguycryeccbc87e4b5ce2fe28308fd9f2a7-1.gif
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Well this one isn't too bad I guess, unless he's going to tell us that at 85 Tannehill is for real but if he ends up with 83.2, he's a bust...
 
His issue with QBR is about as simple as it gets. He gets yards. He's doing ok with TD's. Stop throwing a pick every game and his QBR is near 90. If he could just throw one pick only for the last 4 games, we are in the playoffs, and his TD/INT ratio would be good. He is capable, but he needs to stop making that one bad throw every game.

Another thing he needs is a big guy in the RZ. I really don't understand why Dion Sims hasn't been used more. If we aren't going to give him a big target, then he should start looking to run more near the goal line. Then I can surprise everyone in the fantasy playoffs by starting him over RG3 and having him get a 30 burger. Also, please for the love of God beat the Steelers! I ****ing hate the Steelers so much. I was raised in Ohio so I have a special hatred just for them deep in my heart. **** you Sixburgh!
 
If we win 4 straight and tannehill averages a 84pt rating, yet is the reason we win (ie game winning drives) how should we evaluate that?
 
Good post, that's one way to chart progress. Although, I'm curious why you didn't include all SB QB's, and not just the winners of the game.

To me, it was apparent right away that he was better than the last 2 QB's. He's got some talent, poise and intelligence,...but he's not a natural at this. He's just not. You kind of give him some slack initially, with the few college starts and all that, but when you factor in a familiar system and familiar coach, and his second year, you hope that he explodes and shows you what's been hiding, and make Ireland & Philbin look like geniuses. You hoped that by now, you'd see that. You want to look forward to MNF. You want to open the ESPN QB issue, (like I did yesterday), and see Tannehill's name peppered throughout the glossy pages. But...it didn't happen.

So maybe it will take the 3rd year to pull everything together with this team, this QB, and we'll see.
 
HoneyB said:
Good post, that's one way to chart progress. Although, I'm curious why you didn't include all SB QB's, and not just the winners of the game.

To me, it was apparent right away that he was better than the last 2 QB's. He's got some talent, poise and intelligence,...but he's not a natural at this. He's just not. You kind of give him some slack initially, with the few college starts and all that, but when you factor in a familiar system and familiar coach, and his second year, you hope that he explodes and shows you what's been hiding, and make Ireland & Philbin look like geniuses. You hoped that by now, you'd see that. You want to look forward to MNF. You want to open the ESPN QB issue, (like I did yesterday), and see Tannehill's name peppered throughout the glossy pages. But...it didn't happen.

So maybe it will take the 3rd year to pull everything together with this team, this QB, and we'll see.
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It takes some qbs more than a couple of years to get in their zone. Next year is the key year. He has improved this year that is clear.
 
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