2013: Why Just an Average QB Rating Would be a Success for Ryan Tannehill | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2013: Why Just an Average QB Rating Would be a Success for Ryan Tannehill

I took we can agree that it is just a piece of a puzzle. At least this is a good piece as opposed to Henne's qbr or Geno Smith's whopping 60.4.
 
shoveyjoe2442 said:
I see nothing wrong with Shou's argument.
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Up a couple of posts, I just demonstrated statistically how the absence of Reggie Wayne dropped Luck's QBR nearly 20 points as well as dropping his TD/Int ratio from 3.33/1 to 1:1. So obviously reliable go-to receivers factor very much into the equation. Given that, one has to wonder how much improved Tannehill's performance would have been (and of course his QBR) if Gibson who turned into his "go to guy" didn't go down and Keller, who almost made Sanchez look decent at times, wasn't cheap-shotted in an exhibition game. (on a jest forum, one of our embedded visitors has gone on and on over the year defending Sanchez by repeatedly stating that losing Keller last season was "huge" - so if his absence was huge for someone like the buttfumbler, imagine what Tannehill and his mid field accuracy might have accomplished ). The mind boggles at what might now be if we could have lined up Keller opposite Clay (who Tannehill is making look damn good) and run Gibson down the seam. And that's my take on this whole QBR assertion - that's unless someone concedes that Luck is far from the sure-shot he was promoted to be. :idk:
 
maralieus said:
His issue with QBR is about as simple as it gets. He gets yards. He's doing ok with TD's. Stop throwing a pick every game and his QBR is near 90. If he could just throw one pick only for the last 4 games, we are in the playoffs, and his TD/INT ratio would be good. He is capable, but he needs to stop making that one bad throw every game.

Another thing he needs is a big guy in the RZ. I really don't understand why Dion Sims hasn't been used more. If we aren't going to give him a big target, then he should start looking to run more near the goal line. Then I can surprise everyone in the fantasy playoffs by starting him over RG3 and having him get a 30 burger. Also, please for the love of God beat the Steelers! I ****ing hate the Steelers so much. I was raised in Ohio so I have a special hatred just for them deep in my heart. **** you Sixburgh!
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I have high hopes for Dion Sims, too.

About Tanny, though, I agree it's simple - start strong, get critical 3rd downs, score TD's, don't turn the ball over, finish the 4th, and win. I'm always leery about saying, oh if only we didn't that one pick, or only if we made that FG, or only if he wasn't sacked, or only if that WR didn't drop that pass, etc., because it's not as if the opposing team is standing still. They're trying to beat you, and will have a response to everything you do. There's no magic stats. It's just about making the plays at the moments in the game when it MATTERS, and winning.
 
Vaark said:
Up a couple of posts, I just demonstrated statistically how the absence of Reggie Wayne dropped Luck's QBR nearly 20 points as well as dropping his TD/Int ratio from 3.33/1 to 1:1. So obviously reliable go-to receivers factor very much into the equation. Given that, one has to wonder how much improved Tannehill's performance would have been (and of course his QBR) if Gibson who turned into his "go to guy" didn't go down and Keller, who almost made Sanchez look decent at times, wasn't cheap-shotted in an exhibition game. (on a jest forum, one of our embedded visitors has gone on and on over the year defending Sanchez by repeatedly stating that losing Keller last season was "huge" - so if his absence was huge for someone like the buttfumbler, imagine what Tannehill and his mid field accuracy might have accomplished ). The mind boggles at what might now be if we could have lined up Keller opposite Clay (who Tannehill is making look damn good) and run Gibson down the seam. And that's my take on this whole QBR assertion - that's unless someone concedes that Luck is far from the sure-shot he was promoted to be. :idk:
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I was on the " Suck for Luck" bandwagon. He has been not been very good. Is he bust? Hell no. Will he be pro bowler and multiple Super Bowl winner? Many assume he will be, but I am not entirely convinced.
 
Dr. Phin said:
Yes. If he stays where he is right now, he would be a bust IMO. He needs to improve!
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I agree, I was talking about the remaining games of this season... If he finishes the season at 83.2, I consider this acceptable improvement...
 
HoneyB said:
Good post, that's one way to chart progress. Although, I'm curious why you didn't include all SB QB's, and not just the winners of the game.

To me, it was apparent right away that he was better than the last 2 QB's. He's got some talent, poise and intelligence,...but he's not a natural at this. He's just not. You kind of give him some slack initially, with the few college starts and all that, but when you factor in a familiar system and familiar coach, and his second year, you hope that he explodes and shows you what's been hiding, and make Ireland & Philbin look like geniuses. You hoped that by now, you'd see that. You want to look forward to MNF. You want to open the ESPN QB issue, (like I did yesterday), and see Tannehill's name peppered throughout the glossy pages. But...it didn't happen.

So maybe it will take the 3rd year to pull everything together with this team, this QB, and we'll see.
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This is the ONLY reason I would even contemplate keeping everyone on board, YES even J.Ireland. Because I think a complete change would hurt Tannehill more initially than help him and therefore the team.

I honestly believe even with that Dummy calling the plays if you bring in a respectable O-line and Running game to this team. Look out!!!
 
shouright said:
I think the main thing to consider when evaluating Ryan Tannehill right now is whether his early career trajectory projects him to become a QB capable of winning a Super Bowl with the Miami Dolphins.

Because of its correlation with winning in the NFL and with the consensus perceptions of individual QB performance, generally, over the history of the game, I believe QB rating is one of the best available ways of assessing his current performance as well as his early career trajectory.

Last year Ryan Tannehill's QB rating was 76.1. This year it is 83.2, a 7.1-point increase. The average QB rating in the NFL year-to-year is roughly 85, give or take a point or so.

Here are the season QB ratings for every Super Bowl-winning QB since the year (1994) the salary cap was instituted in the NFL:

YEARQBQB RATING
1994Steve Young112.8
1995Troy Aikman93.6
1996Brett Favre85.8
1996Kurt Warner109.2
1997John Elway87.5
1998John Elway93.0
2000Trent Dilfer76.6
2001Tom Brady86.5
2002Brad Johnson92.9
2003Tom Brady85.9
2004Tom Brady92.6
2005Ben Roethlisberger98.6
2006Peyton Manning101.0
2007Eli Manning73.9
2008Ben Roethlisberger80.1
2009Drew Brees109.6
2010Aaron Rodgers101.2
2011Eli Manning92.9
2012Joe Flacco87.7
AVERAGE 92.71
STANDARD DEVIATION10.79

The average of the QB ratings above is 92.71, with a standard deviation (the average distance from the average) of 10.79.

If Ryan Tannehill were to finish this season with a QB rating of 85 give or take a point (the league average year-to-year), his QB rating in only his second season in the NFL would be better than or non-statistically significantly different from 8 of the 19 (42%) QBs listed above.

Although we have no idea whether or how much he will improve next year, an improvement of around 5 points (a QB rating around 90) would make his performance better than or non-statistically significantly different from 13 of the 19 (68% -- more than two-thirds) QBs listed above.

My personal hope for him (and the team) is that he finishes the season strong, attains a QB rating around 85, and improves on that next year to a rating around 90. I think this is certainly possible. :up:
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What were the QB ratings for each of those QB's in their second season?
 
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