2018 Qbs: Production Analysis

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by LargoFin, Mar 30, 2018.

  1. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    In this thread I will post college stats for the QBs eligible in this draft, as well as stats for some QBs in the past drafts going back to 2009, maybe 2008. For the past drafts, I will not examine a lot of QB but just the ones who were drafted--call it a sample size. For the 2018 draft, we will look at as many Qbs as we can.

    PURPOSE: The primary purpose is basically to predict the QB success in transitioning from college to NFL based largely on college stats. The secondary purpose is to have data on hand for choice evaluation of QBs.

    ANALYSIS: To evaluate QBs I will analyze them by setting specific benchmark values to their college stats. I will RED flag data that does not meet the benchmark value. I will also YELLOW flag borderline values. In addition, I will GREEN flag exceptional data.

    BENCHMARKS: They are set by trial and error to get the best predictive fit. For the purposes of this analysis I will use Carson Wentz as the standard. I will only look at the senior year of production.

    NOTE: Obviously you are free to set benchmarks if you wish as you like in your own analysis. But, I am going to set my benchmarks in this thread. In addition, you are free to arrive at your own conclusions about Qbs based on the stats. I will share my conclusions.
    We are dealing with stats here, which are facts, no opinions, and even though the benchmarks are arbitrary, they will be applied to everyone equally. So, if anyone feels there is bias in arbitrary benchmarking, it is applied equally to all.

    DATA: I will benchmark the following data: ATTEMPTS, COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, ATT/Sack, ATT/int. ATT/TD. and I will introduce a new field and call it RELIABILITY. Reliability will be calculated as:
    Completions percentage x ATT/SK x ATT/int divided by ATT/TD.

    BENCHMARKS will be as follows:

    Yellow flag - borderline
    Red Flag - poor
    Green flag - exceptional

    ATTEMPTS:
    Should be over 350
    Yellow flag 280-350
    Red Flag under 280

    COMPLETION PERCENTAGE:
    Should be between 63% and 67.5%
    Yellow flag 61-63%
    Red flag below 61% and over 67.5%

    ATT/SK:
    Should be 17.9 and over
    Yellow flag is 17-17.89
    Red flag is under 17
    Green flag is 34 and over

    ATT/INT:
    Should be over 35.8
    Yellow flag is between 34 and 35.79
    Red flag is under 34
    Green flag is over 70

    ATT/TD
    Should be under 14
    Yellow flag is between 14 and 16
    Red flag is over 16
    Green flag is less than 10.5

    RELIABILITY:
    Should be 28.5 to 70
    Yellow flag is between 70 and 117
    Red flag is under 28.5 and over 117

    In addition, I will introduce a few more benchmarks:
    AGE: should not be 24 and older on draft day
    WINNING: must have a good winning record, nor borderline 6-6, or 7-6
    ONE-YEAR: Cannot have one year of production in college.
    CHAMP: I will also give weight to National Champions over those who are not, if they clear the benchmarks.

    Based on the above benchmarks, I will deem quarterbacks undraftable who have red flags, or mutliple yellow flags, unless there is a green flag to offset some value. Those who do not have red flags, or have green flags that offset red flags will be deemed draftable.

    (I posted this on some other dolfan sites, so if you have seen it before, this is a more elaborate explanation of the methodology. I will not offer the spreadsheet for viewing but the data will be posted in the thread as a post.)

    Again, this is an open forum math/data exercise, so please do not get mad if I scratch your favorite QB because I am too strict. I also like some traits for quarterbacks who will inevitably get scratched. This does not mean that a QB should be drafted, it just means that I would not draft that QB.

    Lets get to it, and look at some quarterbacks.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2018
    HeyHoLet'sGo and j-off-her-doll like this.
  2. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Let's look at the standard: CARSON WENTZ: (Again senior season only, not career):

    DATA:

    Com: 228
    Att: 358 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 63.7 (clear the benchmark over 63)
    TD: 25
    INT: 10
    SK: 20

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 17.9 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 35.8 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 14.32 (borderline, it's okay, it's under 16)
    Reliability: 28.5 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    No red flags, the QB is draftable.
     
  3. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Let's go back to 2009 draft:

    Matt Stafford:

    DATA:

    Com: 235
    Att: 383 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 61.4 (Yellow Flag, between 61 and 63))
    TD: 25
    INT: 10
    SK: 17

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 22.5 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 38.3 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 15.3 (Yellow flag it's okay, it's under 16)
    Reliability: 34.6 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has two yellow flags. In my opinion, this QB is not first round value based on data. He maybe taken in later rounds, but it's a judgment call.
     
  4. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Mark Sanchez

    DATA:

    Com: 241
    Att: 366 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 65.85 (clears the benchmark, over 63)
    TD: 34
    INT: 10
    SK: 17

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 21.5 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 36.6 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 10.8 (clears the benchmark, under 14)
    Reliability: 48.2 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB is first RD value.
     
  5. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Josh Freeman:

    DATA:

    Com: 224
    Att: 382 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 58.64 (Red Flag, under 61)
    TD: 20
    INT: 8
    SK: 15

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 25.5 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 36.6 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 19.1 (Red flag over 16)
    Reliability: 37.3 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has two red flags, and is therefore undraftable.
     
  6. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Pat White:

    DATA:

    Com: 180
    Att: 274 (Red flag under 280)
    C%: 65.7 (clears the benchmark, over 63)
    TD: 21
    INT: 7
    SK: 16

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 17.3 (Yellow flag 17-17.89)
    Att/int: 39.4 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 13.05 (clears the benchmark, under 14)
    Reliability: 33.8 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has two flags, and is therefore undraftable.
     
  7. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Stephen McGee

    DATA:

    Com: 211
    Att: 364 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 57.8 (Red flag, under 63)
    TD: 12
    INT: 8
    SK: 16

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 22.8 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 45.5 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 30.3 (Red flag, over 16)
    Reliability: 19.8 (Red flag, under 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has too many red flags and is therefore undraftable.
     
  8. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Rhett Bomar

    DATA:

    Com: 245
    Att: 436 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 56.2 (Red flag, under 63)
    TD: 27
    INT: 13
    SK: 20

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 21.8 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 33.5 (Red flag, under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 16.2 (Red flag, over 16)
    Reliability: 25.44 (Red flag, under 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has too many red flags and is therefore undraftable.
     
  9. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Nate Davis

    DATA:

    Com: 258
    Att: 401 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 64.3 (clears the benchmark, over 63)
    TD: 26
    INT: 8
    SK: 14

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 28.6 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 50.1 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 15.4 (Yellow flag, 14-16)
    Reliability: 59.9 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has a single yellow flag, and is draftable on data. Mid rounds because scoring is little low.
     
  10. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Tom Brandstater

    DATA:

    Com: 221
    Att: 371 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 59.6 (Red Flag, under 63)
    TD: 18
    INT: 12
    SK: 17

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 21.8(clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 30.9 (Red flag under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 20.6 (Red flag, over 16)
    Reliability: 19.5 (Red flag, under 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has too many red flags to be drafted.
     
  11. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    2010 DRAFT
     
  12. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Sam Bradford

    DATA:

    Com: 358
    Att: 483(clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 74.1 (Red flag, over 67.5)
    TD: 50
    INT: 8
    SK: 11

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 43.9 (Green flag, over 34)
    Att/int: 60.4 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 9.66 (Green flag, under 10.5)
    Reliability: 203.4 (Red flag over 117)

    Conclusion: This QB is not draftable because reliability is way over 117. That for me is an automatic scratch. While he has elite green-flag areas in data to overcome/support some red flags, that does not apply to reliability field in this case.
     
  13. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Tim Tebow

    DATA:

    Com: 213
    Att: 314 (Yellow flag, 280-350)
    C%: 67.8 (Red flag, over 67.5)
    TD: 21
    INT: 5
    SK: 27

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 11.6 (Red flag, under 17)
    Att/int: 62.8 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 14.95 (Yellow flag, 14-16)
    Reliability: 33.1 (clears the benchmark, not less than 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has too many flags and is therefore not draftable.
     
  14. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Jimmy Clausen

    DATA:

    Com: 289
    Att: 425(clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 68.0 (Red flag, over 67.5)
    TD: 28
    INT: 4
    SK: 24

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 17.7 (clears the benchmark, not under 17)
    Att/int: 106.3 (Green flag, over 70)
    Att/TD: 15.2 (Yellow flag 14-16)
    Reliability: 84.3 (Yellow flag, 70-117)

    Conclusion: This QB is not draftable in my opinion. While he has a green flag to overcome lack of scoring, he has red and yellow flags in other areas which he cannot overcome.
     
  15. LargoFin

    LargoFin Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2018
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    54
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Colt McCoy

    DATA:

    Com: 332
    Att: 470 (clears the benchmark 350)
    C%: 70.6 (Red flag, over 67.5)
    TD: 27
    INT: 12
    SK: 30

    ANALYSIS:

    Att/Sk: 15.7 (Red flag, under 17)
    Att/int: 39.2 (clears the benchmark, not under 35.8)
    Att/TD: 17.4 (Red flag, over 16)
    Reliability: 24.9 (Red flag under 28.5)

    Conclusion: This QB has too many flags and is not draftable.
     

Share This Page