3 Yards Per Carry Episode 1.20 - Game Day!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ckparrothead, Aug 9, 2018 at 10:18 AM.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Today is my Christmas morning.

    Some folks love the start of training camp. Some love the scrimmage. For me, the special day is the first preseason game.

    Some love to be snobs about how seeing things in practice makes you automatically more informed and more right than everyone else (I don't buy it, never have). I have always found practice environments to be idiosyncratically different from game environments in very key aspects. That's a fancy way of saying, you've got to see it in games.

    In practice the defense might know exactly what the offense is about to do, or vice versa. They might be practicing certain concepts and running them over and over again. The inability to tackle or go full contact prevents some players from reaching full throttle (remember how infamous Cameron Wake was for not particularly standing out in practices). There's just so much that is different.

    When the first preseason game gets here you're able to sit down and watch snaps, see a guy either winning or losing his matchups in a live fire scenario. You get to look at the bottom of the roster and say, my goodness look at the way this CFL kid we got just beat the bajesus out of Tony Pashos and Tra Thomas. Did you see that play Jakeem Grant made? Who is Derrick Shelby because he looked pretty damn good. Did you see this Torry McTyer guy school LaQuon Treadwell one on one?

    Anyway, with all that said, enjoy the pre-Game podcast. We dive into a whole lot of topics here.

    ****************************

    iTunes
    : https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-yards-per-carry-miami-dolphins/id1363764781?mt=2#
    Google Play: https://play.google.com/music/m/Irkw4ymxvrfdutnhgcyx6g7np44?t=3_Yards_Per_Carry_-_Miami_Dolphins
    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/11qutsbsvv9NLCDstWuk6w?si=e0bMgRFsR-m5xnCDlHnBWg
    Podbean: https://threeyardspercarry.podbean.com/e/3ypc-camp-bucs-fins-preview-episode-120/
    Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/3-yards-per-carry
    Podbay: http://podbay.fm/show/1363764781/e/1533792780?autostart=1
    Player.FM: https://player.fm/series/3-yards-pe...46/ep-3ypc-camp-bucs-fins-preview-episode-120

    5 Reasons Patron Shots: https://patron.podbean.com/fivereasonssports

    ****************************

    Now for highlights of Episode 1.20 - Game Day!:
    • Simon Clancy gets trolled by a terrible comedian in Scotland.
    • Alf Arteaga wipes his *** with the first official depth chart.
    • Simon Clancy pisses on the very same first official depth chart.
    • Chris Kouffman attempts to explain why they both have just made a terrible mistake.
    • Will Adam Gase shoot himself in the foot with respect to his duty split between Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore?
    • Making sense of the defensive line positions and rotations.
    • Simon Clancy pronounces Akeem Spence DOA.
    • Chris Kouffman pronounces Tony Lippett DOA.
    • Alf Arteaga gives you extraordinary and detailed observations from the scrimmage and week of practice that, quite frankly, I've not heard anywhere else from any of the other practice observers. And yes I realize I'm talking my own book here but it's also just the simple truth. If you know the difference between 11 and 12 personnel, you'll appreciate it.
    • Simon Clancy goes on a very British rant about all the penalties and sloppiness.
    • Chris Kouffman tells everyone what has been hidden in plain sight about the CB competition opposite Xavien Howard.
    • We absolutely cannot hide how incredibly amped up we are over TE Mike Gesicki.
    • Will the massive (and some would say, shameful) rule changes with regard to illegal helmet use and unnecessary roughness that we saw in the Hall of Fame game result in a sea change in the offense-vs-defense battle this year?
    • Does it happen to be the case that, whether due to luck or skill, the Miami Dolphins are actually really well positioned to take advantage of these changes?
    Lots of other stuff in there. Enjoy the listen.
     
  2. DKphin

    DKphin A True Fan Donator

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    I got it at 9pm over here. I will listen before bed and get up at 5am so I can watch the game.:biggrin:thumbsup
     
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  3. Blackcreekbandit

    Blackcreekbandit Derek Jeter sits when he pees Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm going to try to fit this in before the game tonight but between Rollin up doobys and pouring mixed drinks of captain an coke I am not sure i will have time. Love the podcast and I've listened to them all from day 1
     
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  4. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Today is indeed one of the best days of the year when your starting quarterback's knee doesn't explode in training camp.
     
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  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    I didn't get a chance to mention it on the show but I have a feeling Isaiah Ford will play tonight, and he will see a lot of action his way. Look for him to work the slot.
     
  6. Blackcreekbandit

    Blackcreekbandit Derek Jeter sits when he pees Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Even with Ford wearing the red jersey in practice leading up?
     
  7. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I actually graded Isaiah Ford as a top 50 player in the 2017 Draft. When healthy, I suspect he's a lot closer to that as opposed the 237th best player in the draft where he was selected.

    Make no mistake, he can play.
     
  8. In Gase We Trust

    In Gase We Trust Well-Known Member

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    I’m interested in the CB competition...be fun to see who steps up their game and who gets the most looks in these next few games.

    Love the podcast as always CK. Looking forward to the post game analysis.
     
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  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Since it wasn't the right medium for this, I did not get to say all this on the podcast.

    I originally identified five major weaknesses in the 2017 defense, from a purely statistical, results-based study:

    1) allowing 4.84 yards per run when in Nickel personnel, which was the 30th worst yards per run carry out of all the NFL’s Nickel packages,
    2) allowing 7.77 yards per pass attempt when in Base personnel, which was the 26th worst yards per pass attempt out of all the NFL’s Base packages,
    3) allowing the 32nd worst conversion rate on 3rd & Long (3rd & 5 to 3rd & 10),
    4) allowing the 30th most red zone touchdowns per red zone trip on defense, and
    5) allowing the most ‘fantasy points’ (standard scoring) per game to Tight Ends.

    Incidentally, their Pass defense out of Nickel (6.02 yards per pass attempt, ranked 19th), and their Run defense out of Base (3.69 yards per carry, ranked 19th) were nothing to write home about. They were not strengths. They just weren’t quite the same level of weakness as the other five.

    I knew that Bobby McCain had played some CB in their Base packages as one of the two CBs. Turns out he was in on 20% of their Base personnel packages (72 of 365).

    But here’s the thing, and this is remarkable.

    The weakness in Pass defense out of Base personnel was almost exclusively limited to the other 80% of plays Bobby wasn’t in on. They allowed 8.17 yards per pass attempt on them. With Bobby in the game on Base, they allowed 6.61 yards per attempt, which would’ve ranked 15th among Base packages.

    And the PFF data corroborates. His yards per target strictly from perimeter coverage ranked in the top 14 percent among qualifying corners.

    What’s more, the Base packages he was in on allowed only 3.07 yards per carry. That would’ve ranked 7th in Run defense among all Base packages. When he wasn’t in, the Run defense out of Base dropped to 21st among Base packages.

    And there is more. They allowed NINE touchdowns out of Base when he wasn’t out there, only forced one turnover. When he was out there they allowed only ONE touchdown, and forced one turnover.

    No matter how you slice it, they were a better Base defense when Bobby McCain was the CB opposite Xavien Howard.
     
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  10. gerblack

    gerblack That Guy Donator

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    Loved the talk about TE Mike Gesicki snuffing people in the redzone lol
     
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  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    It's like Alf said, it's a drill that is handicapped in favor of the big athlete like Gesicki.

    But...he's doing really well with it. Really well.
     
  12. uk_dolfan

    uk_dolfan Founder of the FH Adam Gase fan club Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I usually agree, I love seeing the battles to make the roster ... but there is something rather grim about the idea of watching Brock Osweiler throwing ints at 2am. Roll on Bryce Petty!
     
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  13. phintim

    phintim Seasoned Veteran

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    Preseason is huge always has been as I love watching for those underdog players to make the team. The downside of preseason is those darn anouncers especially toward the second half who want to talk about themselves or what happened 50 years ago and only give you glimpses of the ongoing game.
     
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  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Oh man.

    Absolutely. Big pet peeve of mine as well. They do the same with All Star games. It's like, hey guys you know there's a football game happening behind you, right?
     
  15. Travis34

    Travis34 chea Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Good listen, cant wait for tonight!
     
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  16. Wildbill3

    Wildbill3 Misery Loves Company Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    You know, the helmet rule should help us, you know since we can’t tackle for half a season anyway
     
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  17. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Good stuff thanks, I enjoy listening to the programs.
    Question for you though, how often do you get a chance to use this ( idiosyncratically )
     
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  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    Hah.

    Given my job, my real job, it's in the lexicon. ;)

    There's another word for ya.
     
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  19. TripleThreat

    TripleThreat Living the dream

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    adds up to a very good extension deal on/for Bobby McCain.
     
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  20. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Griese, Moore and Stockton are the highlight of preseason. Nothing else is remotely close. I hate it when occasionally a network steals a preseason game and we don't get our own crew.

    They allow just the correct amount of emphasis. Once you reach their age -- or my age -- you understand preseason means next to nothing. I'll read the summary threads here and personnel blather but none of it will stick, not once Griese and Nat get going. I love their references. I always get the trivia question correct.

    Fans handicap the preseason properly, by the numbers who bother not to show up.

    Besides, we've got PGA Championship golf today and Pan-Pacs swimming underway. Those are top tier meaningful competitions.

    I suppose I'll pay some attention to Gesicki. He was a guy in college who never seemed to fully unleash, despite the athletic testing and those high school basketball videos. Somehow it didn't translate to the football field, where he always seemed a bit tentative and not merely in blocking. I always thought if he could just run a bit taller and assert his athletic arrogance when the ball arrived you might really have something. Perhaps he has figured that out. In college the other kid with top athletic ability -- Dallas Goedert -- played more confidently than Gesicki did in those contested situations, despite not being as gifted as Gesicki.
     
  21. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    McCain in the base? Isn't he too short, only real good corners can get away with being small on the boundary
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    He's 5094...which is 5 feet, 9.5 inches.

    Simple fact of the matter is he's already played in the Base and the defense did a whole lot better than when he wasn't playing in the Base.
     
  23. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Fair enough i wasn't paying attention i guess. I need to look at the film. I really like McTyer and hope he steps up
     
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  24. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    I'm not saying this was the case with McCain, because I honestly have no idea. But it could be that he was simply easier to target when not in the base defense.

    What I'm saying is entire passing offenses nowdays are predicated on getting you into 5+ DB's and attacking the weak link. Secondaries ultimately end up being judged by how well the safeties are able to cover in space, and whether that nickel guy is just a warm body or an actual player. I know at the SEC level, the nickel guy is the most important DB on the field in our (Saban's) defense.

    If I'm calling plays, I can get whatever I want on that slot guy, whether it's size, speed, or quickness.
     
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  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    That's a good point.

    Though I wouldn't say his defense in Nickel was bad, really. Allowed 38 catches on 54 targets for 367 yards, 1 TD, with 2 INTs and 3 more PBUs.

    I thought he had some issues particularly with size and physicality in the red zone a year ago (2016) when he allowed 4 touchdowns. But that came down nicely in 2017.

    I think in Nickel, everyone would want him right where he'll be, where we're used to seeing him. But they bring out Base on about 25-35% of the snaps, depending on what the offense does. I don't know that I see any reason to leave him sitting on the bench in favor of Torry McTyer or Cordrea Tankersley, when that happens.
     
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  26. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Let me ask you this then - do you expect that 25-35% of snaps in base defense to remain consistent, and do you expect Miami to run any 6 DB packages? I remember you pointing out how averse Miami has been in the past to playing Dime packages compared to other teams in the league.
     
  27. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Doesn't that depend on how much they like Jalen Davis? Or maybe the use Fitzpatrick in the slot in dime and roll with McDonald with Jones at safety
     
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  28. TedSlimmJr

    TedSlimmJr Hartselle Tigers (15-0) 5-A State Champ

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    Probably not. My intention would be more towards being able to get 3 safeties on the field in a 6 DB package. One of those being more of a hybrid defender (Fitzpatrick)
     
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  29. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If Fitzpatrick is NOT used in multiple roles depending on the defensive personnel on the field, I kind of feel like that will be a damning indictment of Matt Burke.
     
  30. dougb123

    dougb123 Well-Known Member

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    I think I've heard one of the beat writers say they haven't seen McCain outside yet, all his work is coming from the cover slot? At some point, if what you think is true he would need to get some work out there

    If Jalen Davis makes the team it's the practice squad, I would think.

    I would think the 6 guys' are either - Howard, McCain and/or (McTyer or Tankersley) and the 3 safties Jone, Fitzpatrick, TJ McDonald
    or - Howard, McCain, Tankersley, McTyer, Jones, Fitzpatrick
     
  31. NoblePhin

    NoblePhin Starter Finheaven VIP Donator

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    It's a blessing to have 3 starting caliber safeties, especially with one that can play nickel db.
     
  32. dougb123

    dougb123 Well-Known Member

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    Good Podcast, noticed there was no hot-take?
     
  33. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    McCain in the slot for me always seems slow to flip his hips and track his guy, especially on crossing routes. Dunno if it's a physical or mental limitation but he allows separation out of the stem on a regular basis in nickel where the receiver can break either way.

    I think he's better suited to the boundary.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    The Base number was 37% last year for Miami. The NFL average will depend on how you consider the new wave hybrid players who are technically listed as linebackers but have college history playing safety or spur, and really look like strong safeties from a decade ago. So the NFL average is either 26% if those guys are categorized as DBs, or 33% if they're categorized as LBs.

    Miami technically acquired one of those hybrids in Terence Garvin, who played safety at West Virginia, but he's gained so much weight at this point I'm thinking of removing him off the hybrid list altogether.

    Given the weakness we saw out of Run Defense in Base last night, that 37% number could even conceivably go UP if the offenses begin targeting their Base packages. They were already bad defending the pass out of Base (as I said, whenever McCain wasn't part of the Base package). If they've sprung a major leak in Run from Base too...teams could focus on keeping us in Base.

    They have explicitly expressed their willingness to use 3-Safety stuff, which as you know isn't necessarily the same as using Dime. If they're willing to throw some Big Nickel out there instead of Base, then that would be a factor that brings the Base percentage down...but not a ton. Looking at how this is used around the league I would say it would impact the Base percentage by at most like 10-15%.

    There have been minor indications of their willingness to use Dime. If they're willing to go down the 3-Safety rabbit hole then it's not a far jump to Dime. But this is very much a show-me story because they've used Dime a total of 19 times in two seasons. They're one of 12 or 14 teams that just don't use it. Except that where the majority of those teams have like a Telvin Smith, Mark Barron, Shaq Thompson, Matt Milano, Adarius Glanton, or Josh Harvey-Clemons, and thus their 'Nickel' package with one of those guys in the game will match up a lot like some other 3-Safety Dime packages...Miami had no guys like that. They didn't even have the speed linebackers like Deion Jones, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Zach Brown, Bobby Wagner, etc. So their willingness to avoid Dime is even that much more conspicuous and stubborn.

    This is a wide range, but if the Base didn't fall between 25 and 40% then I would be pretty surprised. And if Dime was more than 5 to 8% then I would also be (pleasantly) surprised, and in fact I might forecast it to be more like 3% based on their history and stubbornness.
     
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