A Metrics Breakdown of Patterson, Allen, Hopkins and Bailey

[ckparrothead]

An example of details that have nothing to do with the conversation was that you mentioned a corners 40 time, that has zip to do with pattersons catching ability. But your need to push Patterson on all Miami fans makes you constantly try to show how great he is at everything.

I stated the 40 times for a reason. He had to run full out in order to get open against those guys. It took everything he had. That takes a toll on your ability to catch the football in stride. Sorry if I didn't make that clear but then, it's curious that you should chastise me for assuming your argument to look childish and then you turn around and assume things that I've said are the same.

Until now you've done a fine job of ot,

You mean until I came to disagree with you?

---------- Post added at 12:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:08 AM ----------

*steals the attention whore spotlight*

I was high on Patterson even before Hoops and Ck


Thougt that would fit in with the arguing in ere js lol

+1 for the attention whore post. Respeck

 

[xXwarXx]

I stated the 40 times for a reason. He had to run full out in order to get open against those guys. It took everything he had. That takes a toll on your ability to catch the football in stride. Sorry if I didn't make that clear but then, it's curious that you should chastise me for assuming your argument to look childish and then you turn around and assume things that I've said are the same.



You mean until I came to disagree with you?

That could be possible, but the funny part is If I remember correctly it wasn't long ago that you yourself admitted Patterson wasn't a good deep ball catcher. Now don't quote me on that, and I'm to lazy to check, but I could of sworn you said that once.

Now it seems you invested so much debate in Patterson as a #12 pick that You've resorted to making things up, such as he has good hands.

As far as the your whole 40 time argument, that's what really good WRs with good hands do, run fast and catch the ball. The 40 time and who was guarding him is irrelevant. At the end of the day, Patterson Constsntly catches the ball with his body, RARELY if ever catches the ball away from his body.

And I don't care how much anyone likes him, you have to wonder what the complete lack of routes he ran is due to, IMO am inability to catch from different routes, speeds, timing, angles, is most likely a HUGE part of that.

 

[Digital]

Excellent stats and thank you for the analysis!

However, different teams are hard to compare in a vacuum, which is the only way stats really show us the whole picture. For instance, while I'm not a big Keenan Allen supporter (good player but I like certain other WR's in this draft more), I'd have to say that the others all had far better WR's opposite them to scare the defenses and pull coverage away. Justin Hunter, Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are all arguably #1's for their college teams, whereas the guys in this analysis may be benefitting from that ... except for Keenan Allen. West Virginia had such an explosive offense and good QB that IMHO, Bailey's numbers may be inflated. Also, I see press coverage being a much bigger problem for Bailey than the other 3. A lot of the throw distributions relates to the team's offensive scheme and personnel as much as it does the WR's themselves.

Patterson was new and raw. Coming from JC he had a huge step up in competition and the coaching staff limited him to help him adjust to the SEC. I'm confident that he could have excelled at Screens, but with the talent UT gets at WR every year, they can throw the ball farther down the field, and I think that shows with Patterson. Heck, Patterson didn't even start until several games into the year, but his impact was very significant once he did. I'm not sure whether your analysis took into consideration him missing the early part of the season or whether it weighted the latter games more heavily? I'd suggest that it should. In Patterson's defense, he missed games from injury that likely would have resulted in higher numbers for a season as well.

Competition wasn't equal. Getting 5+ YAC in the SEC is harder than getting a similar amount in the PAC10 to me, but others may disagree. When I eyeball Patterson I have no doubt he will generate explosive YAC plays in the NFL. While Hopkins has speed, I'm just not convinced he will make anyone miss or that he has significantly more speed than Patterson. I question Allen's deep speed, injury potential and am not totally conviced with his attitude yet. Bailey may struggle with press coverage. The numeric analysis is great. But, I feel that Patterson is just scratching the surface of his athletic ability and is ascending. I don't see the physical drawbacks that make me worry about the others. To me, the only thing Patterson lacks is experience, repetition, etc. Things that come with time.

The winner of the analysis seems to be Hopkins. But when I watch the tape my eyes keep telling me that Patterson is the guy.

I eagerly await your analysis of the next 4 guys, because Justin Hunter is another guy who really shows potential. Hunter lacks physical strenght to catch in traffic, bulk to avoid injury, consistent concentration to be a good catcher, and has an injury history that has slowed him regaining top speed. But, he is a legitimate deep threat, a guy who blocks downfield and generates YAC after his catches, and is quite simply unparalelled in this draft as a fade size/jump mismatch in the red zone. The blocking and red zone stuff will not show up in the analysis, but I'm interested in seeing the rest of it.

Kudos and thanks.

 

[NUGap]

However, different teams are hard to compare in a vacuum, which is the only way stats really show us the whole picture. For instance, while I'm not a big Keenan Allen supporter (good player but I like certain other WR's in this draft more), I'd have to say that the others all had far better WR's opposite them to scare the defenses and pull coverage away. Justin Hunter, Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are all arguably #1's for their college teams, whereas the guys in this analysis may be benefitting from that ... except for Keenan Allen. West Virginia had such an explosive offense and good QB that IMHO, Bailey's numbers may be inflated. Also, I see press coverage being a much bigger problem for Bailey than the other 3. A lot of the throw distributions relates to the team's offensive scheme and personnel as much as it does the WR's themselves.

I eagerly await your analysis of the next 4 guys, because Justin Hunter is another guy who really shows potential. Hunter lacks physical strenght to catch in traffic, bulk to avoid injury, consistent concentration to be a good catcher, and has an injury history that has slowed him regaining top speed. But, he is a legitimate deep threat, a guy who blocks downfield and generates YAC after his catches, and is quite simply unparalelled in this draft as a fade size/jump mismatch in the red zone. The blocking and red zone stuff will not show up in the analysis, but I'm interested in seeing the rest of it.

Kudos and thanks.

Appreciate the kind comments. On a super basic level, if you just look at Hopkins stat lines, the biggest games he had were when Sammy Watkins was out. What does that mean? I'm not sure. But maybe next year when I have a little bit of longitudinal data, I'll compare those who had quality, complementary receivers and those who didn't. Maybe that'll reveal something.

Absolutely, offensive scheme has so much to do with it which is why I always advocate using numbers as a way to complement film study. I had a conversation on twitter with one 'draft expert' who was pretty adamant that stats had no place in scouting. To which I say, the more data you have, the better off you are. There's such a thing as paralysis by analysis, but you can't go wrong with the right amount of stats to confirm/ challenge what you see on tape.

There's already a thread on the next four somewhere down the forum queue here, you can also see the post straight on the site here: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/06/tier2-wrs/

 

[madridfinfan]

Best post I've read all year. Thanks for the insight and entertainment!

 

[Fin Thirteen]

Appreciate the kind comments. On a super basic level, if you just look at Hopkins stat lines, the biggest games he had were when Sammy Watkins was out. What does that mean? I'm not sure. But maybe next year when I have a little bit of longitudinal data, I'll compare those who had quality, complementary receivers and those who didn't. Maybe that'll reveal something.

Absolutely, offensive scheme has so much to do with it which is why I always advocate using numbers as a way to complement film study. I had a conversation on twitter with one 'draft expert' who was pretty adamant that stats had no place in scouting. To which I say, the more data you have, the better off you are. There's such a thing as paralysis by analysis, but you can't go wrong with the right amount of stats to confirm/ challenge what you see on tape.

There's already a thread on the next four somewhere down the forum queue here, you can also see the post straight on the site here: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/06/tier2-wrs/

Hey NUGap, terrific stuff. Really.

One thing I mentioned early in this thread and strikes me also looking at the second tier guys. YAC from a screen or short pass is going to be harder than YAC on longer passes. Significantly harder I would say. So you'll get guys like Williams and Hunter who don't run any short stuff of note - their YAC is probably inflated against guys who run a lot of screens like Patton. Patton still leads the field in your second tier, but he should probably be leading by more on the basis that he's running with the defense in front of him a lot more - and still making guys miss.

Your yards per screen pass chart certainly helps a lot to show the differences between receivers.

Just an observation.

 

[WaxOn WaxOff]

I'm gonna consider that one a theory confirmed.

---------- Post added at 02:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 PM ----------

I'm generally skeptical of wide receivers that make their living "getting behind defenses" and catching deeper passes, when they don't actually have much speed.

CK, care to elaborate? Are you saying that you think Hopkins will fail at the next level due to lack of speed and/or lack of YAC on screens?

 

[j-off-her-doll]

allen runs quality routes and most importantly separates in and out of cuts for a big wr...he's got some suddenness to him...some burst...quality hips...he'll run mid 4.5's or better and barring serious skeletons in the closet be a top 20 pick...very polished ready to contribute from the jump win wr...underutilized and underproductive at cal...had he been at the senior bowl his size would have been apparent as would his suddenness and physical abilities...top wr on my board...but an underclassmen...

i like allen, bailey, woods, patton the most...wheaton falls in around #6 to 8 range for me...hopkins lacks long speed and scares me i don't think he'll get off coverage down the field...justin hunter has elite tools but not much polish right now...in 2 years could be filthy...patterson is boom or bust...if we take him i hope for the best pretty much all i can say...terence williams can get vertical when he's clean but struggles to get off press to me...runs good routes...needs to use his hands more and get more physical...

keep in mind we need smart wrs for this system...guys that understand coverage and db leverage...if a guys a dope or plays dumb i don't see the fit...

I don't have Allen rated as my #1 WR, but I have Allen/Wheaton as my best potential combo (in terms of guys we could realistically draft). I think they would compliment each other very well.

 

[hoops]

I don't have Allen rated as my #1 WR, but I have Allen/Wheaton as my best potential combo (in terms of guys we could realistically draft). I think they would compliment each other very well.

depends on what we do in free agency...if you bring in a mike wallace i don't think wheatons in play any more...then you want to go with a big body win wr that can also make plays in the red zone like a keenan allen or you want to go with a smooth polished route runner with deceptive ability over the top and can also win in the red like a bailey or woods or patton...

that's the way i see it...

 

[j-off-her-doll]

depends on what we do in free agency...if you bring in a mike wallace i don't think wheatons in play any more...then you want to go with a big body win wr that can also make plays in the red zone like a keenan allen or you want to go with a smooth polished route runner with deceptive ability over the top and can also win in the red like a bailey or woods or patton...
that's the way i see it...

I agree. I just don't think we're bringing in Wallace. I think it's either Jennings or - as much as I HATE it - Hartline. Patton is the guy I like in your scenario. But I still wouldn't sleep on Wheaton. It's not like you can have too many explosive players, and I see Wheaton as a guy who wants to be an all-around WR. Lot of hypothetical BS'ing, but that's where we're at until the smoke clears from free agency.

 

[Firewall]

This tells us how these guys got to their yard totals over the course of limited sample number of games.
A more important thing imo is to determine what these guys are, what type of receiver and then rank them as such.
For example, I see Allen, Hopkins, and Dobson as very similar possession receivers, receivers who will be reliable hitch and catch receivers up to 15 yards--something like Hartline. I like Dobson the best because I think he has the best hands. (I expect him to have the best vertical too from watching games but I do not know this.)
I see Williams and Bailey as intermediate to deep slant receivers primarily--like Jennings.
Swoop and Austin are the the hitch and go threat like Welker, slot types. I like Swoop.

You really have to watch the receivers. IMO, the important things are fluidity, quickness, strength, hands, effort. The metrics, the route tree, the offensive system, the qb, are less important, much less.

 

[ckparrothead]

That could be possible, but the funny part is If I remember correctly it wasn't long ago that you yourself admitted Patterson wasn't a good deep ball catcher. Now don't quote me on that, and I'm to lazy to check, but I could of sworn you said that once.

I was critical of Cordarrelle's overall physicality and I wondered about his body catching habit, until I dug into his full tape. I came to have a lot of respect for his physicality and for his hands, based on the tape. Anything I've brought up about his deep ball catching was just within the context of him having a little trouble with the over-the-shoulder catch and not being sure if that's a persistent problem or just a fluke. And that persists to this day, really. The difference is you seem SURE that he has problems with that, and you've fallen into exaggeration and hyperbole on the issue. I just don't see that warranted.

Now it seems you invested so much debate in Patterson as a #12 pick that You've resorted to making things up, such as he has good hands.

This is all kinds of wrong. I've never even stated that Cordarrelle should be taken at #12 overall. I've said he should be on the list, and that's all. Never even said he's my first choice there. I'm not "making things up" about his hands being good. It's an evaluation based on an entire season's worth of observations.

Some day you'll have to learn that there is such thing as a difference of opinion.

At the end of the day, Patterson Constsntly catches the ball with his body, RARELY if ever catches the ball away from his body.

This statement is just NOT supported by the facts and evidence. I don't know any other way to put it. I can come up with like 50 clips of catches he made with his hands away from his body (and indeed I've probably already linked clips to about 15 such catches) but then you're going to accuse me of "cluttering the issue with unimportant details".

 

[ckparrothead]

Hey NUGap, terrific stuff. Really.

One thing I mentioned early in this thread and strikes me also looking at the second tier guys. YAC from a screen or short pass is going to be harder than YAC on longer passes. Significantly harder I would say. So you'll get guys like Williams and Hunter who don't run any short stuff of note - their YAC is probably inflated against guys who run a lot of screens like Patton. Patton still leads the field in your second tier, but he should probably be leading by more on the basis that he's running with the defense in front of him a lot more - and still making guys miss.

Your yards per screen pass chart certainly helps a lot to show the differences between receivers.

Just an observation.

Actually one of the things that I noted positively about Terrance Williams was that despite his overall lack of screen plays, he averaged a healthy 5 to 6 yards per catch on the screens that he did run, which supports my theory that even though he's been a deep specialist at Baylor, he has a good all-around skill set and is versatile.

---------- Post added at 10:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:54 AM ----------

CK, care to elaborate? Are you saying that you think Hopkins will fail at the next level due to lack of speed and/or lack of YAC on screens?

I'm not sure how to elaborate more than what I already said. I'm wary of guys that made their living as deep threats at the college level and didn't show a varied skill set, and yet they don't have the size/strength/athleticism to make them compelling as deep threats at the NFL level.

 

[WaxOn WaxOff]

---------- Post added at 10:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:54 AM ----------

I'm not sure how to elaborate more than what I already said. I'm wary of guys that made their living as deep threats at the college level and didn't show a varied skill set, and yet they don't have the size/strength/athleticism to make them compelling as deep threats at the NFL level.

He seemed to do fine against LSU- He caught a 4th and 16 while being covered by Eric Reid who many project as a first round pick. I'll wait for the combine to see his measurables, but his athleticism seems fine to me, although that is not easy to measure and a bit subjective. If you are using his YAC on screens to gauge this, I think that is a bit simplistic. How many screens did he receive? How much did they practice the screen, how good did they mask it, and how good were his blockers? I don't think WR screens played a big roll in the Clemson offense, unlike at Cal.

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

Thread of the year. Hands down. Awesome stuff.