Playoff Watch: Scenarios, Jets/Bills Deathwatch, Key Games
AFC East
New England would win the division by beating Miami Sunday, no matter what else happens.
Miami can take the division by winning its last four games if New England also loses one of its last three (Jaguars, Jets, Bills). Less probably, Miami can also win it by beating New England followed by another loss and two more Patriot losses, but then it depends on which games each team loses (division vs. non-division).
Miami’s only way to win the AFC East is via overall record or division record. Here are the division tiebreaks (Pats/Fins only), in order:
AFC East
New England would win the division by beating Miami Sunday, no matter what else happens.
Miami can take the division by winning its last four games if New England also loses one of its last three (Jaguars, Jets, Bills). Less probably, Miami can also win it by beating New England followed by another loss and two more Patriot losses, but then it depends on which games each team loses (division vs. non-division).
Miami’s only way to win the AFC East is via overall record or division record. Here are the division tiebreaks (Pats/Fins only), in order:
- Head-to-head: Pats lead 1-0
- Division record: Tied at 2-1
- Common games*: Pats have won this tiebreak (currently 6-1 vs. 4-3)
- AFC record: Irrelevant due to common games (Pats lead, 7-1 vs. 5-4)[/list=1]
*For the division tiebreak, Miami’s games which did not count as common opponents were San Diego and Baltimore. New England’s were Cleveland and Denver.
AFC wildcard race
If Miami finishes its last four games…
4-0, 12-4 overall: Miami is guaranteed a wildcard.
If Miami goes 4-0 but loses the AFC East, two Colts losses (Titans, Falcons, Broncos, Texans) or two Titans losses (Colts, Bills, Texans, Bucs) would give Miami the #1 wildcard. Since the Colts and Titans play Sunday, Miami would need the loser of that game to lose just once more in the final three weeks.
If Miami wins its last four, there will have been six games in the final three weeks whose outcomes can deliver a better playoff seeding to the Dolphins (AFC East title or #1 wildcard). Miami would need another loss by the Patriots or by the loser of Sunday’s Colts-Titans game.
3-1, 11-5 overall: Miami needs one loss by Denver in any game (Chiefs, Browns, Colts, Packers) OR three more losses by the Colts/Titans runner-up. If the Broncos also finish 11-5, they will win a wildcard via AFC record.
If Miami, Denver and the Colts/Titans runner-up all finish 11-5, the Broncos and Colts or Titans would win the two wildcards.
Neither Cincinnati nor Baltimore can win a wildcard if Miami finishes 11-5.
2-2, 10-6 overall: The prospects for a wildcard at 10-6 remain complicated. Here is the short version: the likeliest route to a 10-6 wildcard is Denver losing two more (to finish 9-7), although even that is not guaranteed (Miami could lose a two-way tiebreak with Cincinnati).
Miami might also win one if Denver finished 11-5 but the Colts/Titans and Bengals/Ravens runner-ups BOTH finished 10-6. Other 10-6 tiebreaks, particularly involving Cincinnati, could keep Miami out of the playoffs.
If Miami only wins twice more, victories over AFC teams (Pats, Bills, Jets) are more valuable than the Eagles game, and the Buffalo game could be critical if the Bengals finish 10-6 and vie for a wildcard.
I’ve prepared a more detailed breakdown of Miami’s wildcard prospects at 10-6. It will probably give you a headache, but I’ll post it separately later on for those who might be interested.
1-3, 9-7 overall: A wildcard is mathematically possible. Let’s leave it at that.
Bills & Jets Deathwatch
The Jets and Bills have both been eliminated from the AFC East race.
The loser of Sunday’s Jets-Bills game (at 5-8) would be eliminated from the playoffs if Miami also wins. If the Bills lose, they would also be eliminated if Denver wins.
The Jets-Bills winner would be eliminated by two Miami wins. If the Bills win, they would also be eliminated by two Denver wins in the next three games.
Other scenarios also eliminate the Jets and Bills, but these are the simplest and earliest ones.
Week 14: Games that matter
Who we want in week 14, and I don’t mean cheerleaders (with apologies to Peter King):
Kansas City at Denver: A Broncos loss means that Miami would lock up a wildcard with three more wins.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: This game is more important than it might seem. A Bengals win ensures that they will not finish second in the AFC North at 10-6. They could win it at 10-6, or at 11-5 or even 9-7, but they cannot lose it at 10-6. For Miami, this takes the Bengals out of a 10-6 wildcard tiebreak and means that a wildcard is assured with two Dolphin wins and two Bronco losses.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Jets' upset of Tennessee Monday has left the Colts and Titans tied in the AFC South, improving (slightly) Miami's chances of getting the #1 wildcard.
If Indianapolis win the division, it means that Miami cannot play at Tennessee as the #2 wildcard. If you would prefer to see Miami travel to Indianapolis (or New England) in the first round, then you'll prefer the Colts in this game. With a win, the Colts will have a significant edge in the AFC North (up a game in the standings, with a 2-0 head-to-head tiebreak advantage).
Games that matter only for ‘strength of victory’ tiebreaks
Strength of victory is the combined final record of all the opponents a team has defeated during the season. This will change weekly, right through the final games. SOV cannot decide the AFC East, but it could possibly decide a wildcard. Miami’s current SOV is .395, trailing Cincinnati (.488) Indianapolis (.457) and Tennessee (.400) but leading Baltimore (.380) and Denver (.322).
Houston at Jacksonville: A Jaguars win improves Miami’s strength-of-victory score.
Dallas at Philadelphia: A Cowboys win helps Miami.
Seattle at Minnesota: A Seahawks loss hurts the Bengals’ strength-of-victory score.
St. Louis at Cleveland: A Browns loss hurts the Colts’ strength-of-victory score.
Other games also affect strength of victory among the AFC wildcard contenders, but the ones above are probably the most relevant.
Edits since original posting
12/1:
Removed the reference to the Bills/Jets already being ineligible for the #1 wildcard. It's possible one of them could still get the #1 wildcard if the Colts lose their last four and a series of other things happen.
12/2:
Updated to reflect the Jets-Titans Monday night game.
Added Titans' current strength of victory and updated SOV for Fins and Colts to reflect the Monday game.
Added scenarios to the Bills/Jets Deathwatch.
Corrected 11-5 and 10-6 wildcard scenarios to account for a 10-6 finish by the Colts or Titans.
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