A Statistical Breakdown of the Top Pass Rushers (Pt. 1, Sacks)

[NUGap]

Since we have all had some nice discussions about pass-rushing prospects here (read arguments), let's get some stats on how they got to the QB. This post focuses on the sacks only, but part 2 will focus on a sampling of their games to get a feel for pressures, holding, QB hits, run game support, etc. As always, this is intended to complement film study and opinions rather than replace it.

The goal for this was to analyze each and every sack. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get game tape on sacks against some of the smaller schools (Murray State). I did get a sufficient sample on most players and I’m happy with the data I got. I’m looking at a large prospect group, so I won’t comment on every player but only the most interesting parts.

How Fast Did They Get to the QB?

I decided to measure the amount of time it took each player to get to the quarterback. With data on ten prospects, I have a good feeling for what these numbers represent.
Generally, times greater than 5 seconds are coverage sacks. Times between 3.5 and 5 seconds are the majority of sacks and what you would call “average sacks”. Sacks faster than 3.5 seconds are speed sacks which result from a good jump off the line or just great burst. As a note, any outliers that would skew the data (>6 secs or <3 secs), were adjusted to 6 and 3 to represent the coverage and speed sacks without unfairly skewing the data

• Mingo, of course, has the fastest time in getting to the QB. You could have predicted it by looking at his athleticism on tape or at the combine, but it shows up on his sacks. Even though his number of sacks was limited, none of them were coverage sacks and he got to the QB in 3.63 seconds on average.
• For the size of Tank Carradine and Bjoern Werner, they got the QB quickly. Both came in at 3.91 seconds and 45% of their sacks would be considered speed sacks. That’s extremely close to Dion Jordan who is considered far more of a “speed” guy than the others.
• Damontre Moore’s number is disappointing. On average it took him 4.51 seconds to get to the QB and 44.4% of his sacks were from coverage. For a pass-rushing specialist, he wasn’t near the numbers of any other prospects.
• Don’t read too much into Ansah’s numbers. He had a small sample size and I was even hesitant about putting his numbers up because I think they’re a tad misleading. He did, on average take a long time to get to the QB, you can judge whether you think that’s his rawness or a concern.

How Did They Get There?

This is a breakdown of what moves they used to get to the QB. I simplified it down to three categories instead of having a million different moves and counters.

• Damontre Moore had a wide variety of ways to get to the QB, the majority of his sacks came off going to the inside, but he also used bull and outside rushes to the tune of 22% and 44% respectively. Whether this variety was a detriment to his speed as noted above or he used these moves because he didn't have a quick outside rush, the rush flexibility is interesting..
• Both Jordan and Werner were strictly outside rush guys. Neither rusher tallied a sack from an initial inside move.
• Tank Carradine went outside a majority of the time, but showed a range of versatility going with the inside rush 27% of the time and a bull rush 9% of the time.
• If you watched Ziggy Ansah, you’re pretty well versed in his utilization of the bull rush to attempt to get to the QB. He doesn’t disappoint here, 50% of his sacks (2) came from the bull rush

How Did Their Opponents Contribute?

I created a really quick and dirty strength of schedule for the pass rushers. Part sacks allowed by each team’s offensive line and part Sagarin ratings, it’s not perfect but it should give you a relative feeling for the quality of teams/ offensive lines each pass rusher got their sacks against.

• Again, don’t pay much mind to Ansah’s numbers, they’re from an extremely small sample size. Use them as a guideline but not gospel.
• Aside from Ansah, Moore tallied his sacks against the toughest teams. With sacks against Alabama, LSU, and Mississippi State – Moore beat a difficult assortment of O-lines for his sacks.
• Mingo, with a similar SEC schedule as Moore, got his sacks against a difficult schedule. Is this the reason for his lack of production, is it an excuse, or does it have absolutely nothing to do with it? I'm leaning towards little to do with his lack of production, but the fact that he was able to produce good speed rushes against that schedule is impressive.
• Both Carradine and Werner’s strength of sacks were in the bottom three in this group. Sacks against lowly Maryland and Wake Forest really dragged down their numbers. By this metric, Werner's best sacks were against Miami then Florida (UF didn't get a lot of love due to the 39 sacks they surrendered).

That's the extent of it all, there's two more small charts (sacks by down and #rushers and #blitzers) here : http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/27/pass-rushers-pt1/ They're interesting enough, but probably only really interesting for die-hards. Hope y'all enjoyed!

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

Solid stuff as always! Did you happen to get any info on Alex Okafor?

 

[jetsh8r]

Im surprised Ansah got there as fast as he did. He has no get off at the line and no moves to speak of

 

[Buddy]

NUGap, you absolutely get the gold star for draft analysis this year. I have truly enjoyed your breakdown of the various positions and have learned a lot. Kudos, my friend!

With that being said, do you think that Werner and Carradine benefited or were hurt by being on the same line for your analysis?

 

[j-off-her-doll]

This is beautiful. Thank you, sir.

 

[hoops]

so much for that mingo only gets sacks when he's clean garbage...well done...3.63 to the qb folks...

don't tell me that kid can't rush the passer...versatility in how he gets there...outside inside bull rush...

 

[2413fanphins]

Now this needs its own guru forum. Your analysis is stunning to say the least. Best stuff ive ever seen on herehands down

 

[NUGap]

NUGap, you absolutely get the gold star for draft analysis this year. I have truly enjoyed your breakdown of the various positions and have learned a lot. Kudos, my friend!

With that being said, do you think that Werner and Carradine benefited or were hurt by being on the same line for your analysis?

Appreciate all the praise from everyone.

You know, that's a good question and I had someone else ask that as I was talking about the time to sack the QB. I don't know if there's an easy way to quantify short of comparing every snap of Werner's when Carradine was in to every snap when Carradine was out. My thought was that the majority of the people up there had good pass rush to help them out as well. Mingo had Montgomery, Jarvis Jones had his entire team who are all in the draft, Moore and Jordan had some solid talent with them. Of course, that's a pretty lame answer, because really I don't know. It probably helped them a little bit, I'll be thinking of ways I can standardize that though.

 

[fanfin]

GREAT WORK MAN! I did find one fallacy though. Ansah played with by far the worst group of DB's of the aforementioned pass rushers. But you could also make the argument he played against the worst quarterbacks and offensive line as well. It would be a matter of film work to determine that. Not trying to criticize your report by any means and again great work love the effort! Again that was the only critique and very minor at that....

 

[fanfin]

I would also recommend including their sack totals for the entire year, so you know how many sacks the date is from, but again LOVED this post one of the better threads I have seen in my time (2 months) of being here!

---------- Post added at 11:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:52 AM ----------

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[j-off-her-doll]

Appreciate all the praise from everyone.

You know, that's a good question and I had someone else ask that as I was talking about the time to sack the QB. I don't know if there's an easy way to quantify short of comparing every snap of Werner's when Carradine was in to every snap when Carradine was out. My thought was that the majority of the people up there had good pass rush to help them out as well. Mingo had Montgomery, Jarvis Jones had his entire team who are all in the draft, Moore and Jordan had some solid talent with them. Of course, that's a pretty lame answer, because really I don't know. It probably helped them a little bit, I'll be thinking of ways I can standardize that though.

Not an all-encompassing answer to the question, but % of time double-teamed or chipped would place some kind of perspective as to how much attention each player received. I'd probably eliminate quick screens and 3-step drops from the sample, because teams don't generally double team players under those circumstances, and if a player goes up against a few teams that run a ton of quick screens, that would skew the numbers.

 

[fanfin]

you could also look at the team of the pass rusher's run defense, as to how many opportunities each pass rusher gets to rush the qb.

 

[NUGap]

Not an all-encompassing answer to the question, but % of time double-teamed or chipped would place some kind of perspective as to how much attention each player received. I'd probably eliminate quick screens and 3-step drops from the sample, because teams don't generally double team players under those circumstances, and if a player goes up against a few teams that run a ton of quick screens, that would skew the numbers.

That's a good thought, when I do Pt 2 I'll look at charting those aspects. That part will be focused way less on sacks and just the situations/ general results, so that should lend itself well.

 

[2413fanphins]

Appreciate all the praise from everyone.

You know, that's a good question and I had someone else ask that as I was talking about the time to sack the QB. I don't know if there's an easy way to quantify short of comparing every snap of Werner's when Carradine was in to every snap when Carradine was out. My thought was that the majority of the people up there had good pass rush to help them out as well. Mingo had Montgomery, Jarvis Jones had his entire team who are all in the draft, Moore and Jordan had some solid talent with them. Of course, that's a pretty lame answer, because really I don't know. It probably helped them a little bit, I'll be thinking of ways I can standardize that though.

Your work is amazing. This looks like the work of several men. I can't imagine putting in the time you do to come up with this stuff. I'll be recomending/nominating you for draft guru status. I can't see how this stuff doesnt' belong in there.

good job. nice work!

 

[NUGap]

GREAT WORK MAN! I did find one fallacy though. Ansah played with by far the worst group of DB's of the aforementioned pass rushers. But you could also make the argument he played against the worst quarterbacks and offensive line as well. It would be a matter of film work to determine that. Not trying to criticize your report by any means and again great work love the effort! Again that was the only critique and very minor at that....

That's a good point, it's hard to account for DB skill. Especially if the DBs were pressing and the pass rushers had more time to get to the QB as he couldn't throw the ball. There's so many interrelated aspects of football, it's what makes it harder to do stats for than baseball or even basketball. These numbers won't reflect the DB ability, but I'll definitely look at that in the future.